Marshall: Week 1 NFL Trends

Marshall: Week 1 NFL Trends
CAROLINA at ATLANTA…  Frank Reich debut for Panthers.  Carolina 3-1 vs. line last four in series, Falcons closed last season dropping 8 of 11 vs. spread.  Atlanta 3-6-1 as chalk past two seasons.  Tech edge-slight to Panthers, based on team trends.
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE... DeMeco Ryans Houston debut, Texans 5-3-1 vs. line away for Lovie Smith last season.   Meanwhile, though they were just 1-6-1 vs. spread at AM&T Bank Stadium last year, Ravens have won and covered six of last seven openers.  Also “under” 6-1 lasts even as host a year ago.   Tech edge-slight to Ravens and “under,” based on opening week and “totals” trends.
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND...  Teams have split four SU and vs spread past two seasons.  Bengals, however, are 14-3 vs. spread last 17 away from home.  Also 16-7-1 “under” since late 2021. Tech edge-Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS...  Shane Steichen Indy debut.  Jags closed last season with a rush, winning and covering six of last seven.  Jags have covered 8 of last 9 meetings, stretching back to their decidedly subpar days. “Unders” 7-1 last eight meetings.  Colts closed last season 3-8 vs. line last 11.  Tech edge-Jags and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA...  Bucs only 5-13 vs. line last season for Todd Bowles, tam pa bay also “under” 12-6 a year ago.  Vikings only 3-6 vs. spread as host in 2022, also “over” 12-6 last season.   Minnesota 26-12 “over” since late in 2020 campaign.  Tech edge-“Over,” based on extended “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at NEW ORLEANS…  Titans closed 2022 dropping 6 of last 7 vs. line, though were still 6-3 vs. spread away.  Tennessee 16-7 “under” since late in 2021 campaign.  Saints closed last season “under” 5-1 last six.  Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at PITTSBURGH… Niners closed last season covering nine and winning ten of last eleven games, though they have failed to cover in last three openers.  Mike Tomlin has won and covered last three openers, and Tomlin 17-10 vs. spread as dog since mid 2019.  Tech edge-slight to Steelers, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON…  Jonathan Gannon Cards debut.  Washington on 20-8 “under” run since early 2021.  Ron Rivera 5-2 lasts even as chalk. Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Washington, based on “totals” and team trends.
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO…  Pack owned this series when Aaron Rodgers was at QB, winning and covering last eight meetings.  Bears enter 2023 on 8-20 spread skid.  Tech edge-Packers, based on series and team trends.
LAS VEGAS at DENVER…  Sean Payton Broncos debut.  Raiders have won outright last six meetings, and 10-0-1 vs. spread last eleven in series.  Though LV only 3-7 vs. line last ten as visitor. “Unders” are 10-3 last 13 meetings.   Tech edge-Raiders and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
MIAMI at LA CHARGERS… Dolphins covered last three on road in 2022 and were 5-3 as dog last season in McDaniel debut. Also “over” 8-2 on road.  Chargers 123-6 overall vs. spread in 2022 but only 6-5 as favorite.  Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND… Despite Super Bowl visit, Eagles were only 2-7 away from Linc last season. Belichick did drop 5 of last 6 vs. spread a year ago, however, and just 2-7 as dog in formerly profitable role.  Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on recent Belichick negatives.
LA RAMS at SEATTLE...  Rams only 6-11 vs. line in disappointing 2022, but have covered five straight and seven of last eight in this NFC West series.  Seahawks closed last season on 1-8 spread skid.  “Unders” also 6-2 last eight meeti9ngs.  Tech edge-Rams and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
DALLAS at NY GIANTS...  Though NY was 6-3 vs. spread at MetLife last season, Cowboys have won and covered last four meetings vs. G-Men as well as  11 of last 12 in series.  “Overs” 7-2 last nine meetings.  Tech edge-Cowboys and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at NY JETS (Monday, September 11)…  Jets reversed recent series trends by covering both vs. Bills last season.  Though NY just 5-9 vs. spread since mid 2021 at MetLife. Four of last five “under” in series and Jets “under” 12-6 since late 2021, though this is all pre-Aaron Rodgers.  Bills were only 4-8 vs. line last season after getting what seemed a hump win at Kansas City.  Buffalo also “under” 11-7 a year ago.  Tech edge-slight to “under” and Jets, based on “totals” and recent trends.