HOUSTON at BALTIMORE (Saturday, January 20)… Rematch of opening week when Texans lost 27-9 at M&T Bank Stadium. That was CJ Stroud’s NFL debut and Houston went on to eventually cover seven of its last nine as an underdog this season, and five of their next seven away from home. Lamar Jackson just 1-3 SU and vs. line in playoffs with Ravens, who did manage a spread cover in Wild Card round last January at Cincy with Tyler Huntley at QB. Balt just 2-3 vs. spread last five at home this season and 4-4 last eight vs. line as host, though did sub liberally (and no Jackson) in reg season finale vs. Steelers. Tech edge-Texans, based on team trends.
GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (Saturday, January 20)… Niners have won and covered all four postseason meetings between these two since 2012. Pack, however, has not only covered, but won outright in its last five as an underdog this season. Green Bay also hits this weekend on 7-1 “over” run. Niners 6-1 vs. line in NFC playoffs under Kyle Shanahan (5-2 SU), though hasn’t covered last five at Levi’s Stadium this season (defending upon which price used in Tampa Bay game of Nov. 19). SF also on 5-2 “over” run entering postseason. Tech edge-Packers and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at DETROIT (Sunday, January 21)… Rematch of Oct. 15 at Tampa when Lions won and covered by 20-6 score. Bucs, however, were a very surprising 8-1 vs. the line on the road this season, and have covered in seven of last eight getting points this season. TB also “under” last four and 11-5 “under” this season. Lions just 5-4 vs. spread since midseason after carrying a 16-3 spread mark from midseason 2022 into Nov. 19 game vs. Bears. Detroit also 7-3 “over” into this weekend though “under” in Wild Card vs. Rams. Tech edge-slight to Bucs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO (Sunday, January 21)… Chiefs playing what is technically their first game as a playoff visitor in Patrick Mahomes era, though they did play Bucs on their home field in Tampa for Super Bowl three years ago, and Mahomes has won and covered his other two Super Bowls at neutral sites. Bills have won and covered reg season meetings at Arrowhead each of past three season though Buff also has lost last two playoff dates vs. KC in ‘21 and ‘21, both at Arrowhead. Buff closed reg season covering just two of last seven at Orchard Park before win and cover vs. Steelers last week. Bills also closed reg season on 9-4 “under” run before Steelers game landed “over” on Monday. KC hits this weekend on 10-3-1 “under” run. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.