As of Tuesday morning, most betting shops had Detroit (14-2 straight up, 11-5 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s showdown vs. Minnesota that’ll determine the #1 seed in the NFC.
Most spots had the Lions at -145 to -150 on the money line, with the Vikings carrying +130 to +140 (BetOnline) money-line odds. The total was anywhere from 57 to 58 points at various shops.
When these teams met on Oct. 20 at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minnesota (14-2 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) closed as a 1.5-point home ‘chalk’ at most books. The Vikings jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter thanks to a 34-yard touchdown run by RB Aaron Jones and a 57-yard field goal by Will Reichard.
However, Dan Campbell’s squad answered by outscoring Minnesota 21-0 in the second quarter. RB Jahmyr Gibbs got his team on the board by ripping off a 45-yard TD scamper.
Then QB Jared Goff hit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown for a 35-yard TD connection. Next, Gibbs scored on an eight-yard TD run to stake the Lions to a 21-10 halftime lead.
After Minnesota cut the deficit to four points on a 25-yard TD pass from Sam Darnold to Justin Jefferson, Detroit countered with a 21-yard TD pass from Goff to Khalif Raymond.
Reichard brought the Vikings to within 28-23 with a pair of field goals in the fourth quarter. Two plays after his second boot of the stanza, a 48-yarder with 6:04 remaining, Detroit RB David Montgomery coughed up a fumble that was recovered by Ivan Pace Jr., who turned it into a 36-yard scoop and score.
Minnesota’s two-point conversion failed, leaving it with a 29-28 advantage. After both teams traded punts, the Lions took over at their own 30 with 2:32 left.
They went right down the field, sparked by a 14-yard run by Gibbs, a 16-yard pass from Goff to Gibbs and a 14-yard connection from Goff to St. Brown. Those plays set up a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining that gave Detroit a 31-29 win.
Minnesota lost again by a 30-20 count at the Los Angeles Rams the following week, but it has won nine games in a row since then, compiling a 6-2-1 ATS record, including four straight spread covers. The Vikings held off a late rally to clip Green Bay, 27-25, as one-point home favorites this past Sunday.
Darnold has been elite in the last seven games, throwing 18 TD passes compared to merely two interceptions. He’s enjoyed a breakout campaign, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 4,153 yards with a 35/12 TD-INT ratio.
Goff went off again in last night’s 40-34 win at San Francisco on Monday Night Football. Campbell’s team took the cash as a three-point road ‘chalk.’
Goff completed 26-of-34 throws for 303 yards and three TDs without an interception. Gibbs had 117 rushing yards and one TD on 18 attempts, while WR Jameson Williams had five catches for 77 yards and one TD.
Kickoff on Sunday night is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
PREDICTION: I just collected 3.5 units of profit in Detroit’s win at San Francisco, accurately calling the Lions to go ‘over’ their Team Total of 27.5 points for 2.5 units, in addition to backing them -3 to the 49ers. For this regular-season finale, I’m on Detroit -2.5 for one unit, but I prefer its Team Total to go ‘over’ 29.5 points (-115 price) for 1.5 units.
You can hear more of my thoughts on these picks in this interview on the Chris Vernon Show.