As of early Monday afternoon, most books had Baltimore (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point home favorite for its Week 6 showdown vs. Washington. The total was 52.5 points, and the Commanders were +235 on the money line.
Washington (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has ripped off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS vs. the Giants (21-18), at Cincinnati (38-33), at Arizona (42-14) and vs. Cleveland (34-13). The pimpslap the Commanders put on the Browns yesterday was so ruthless that star rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was given the rest of the day off when they had a 34-6 lead with more than 12 minutes remaining.
Daniels has been spectacular in the first five games of his career, completing 101-of-131 passes (77.1%) for 1,135 yards with a 4/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 300 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.
After getting off to a slow start, WR Terry McLaurin has hauled in 15 catches for 264 yards and two TDs in the last three games. He caught four balls for 112 yards against Cleveland.
Washington is three deep at RB with Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols playing well. Robinson has 325 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.5 YPC average. He’s added eight catches for 68 yards, too.
Ekeler has 150 rushing yards, one TD and a 7.9 YPC average. He has 11 catches for 151 yards. McNichols has 113 rushing yards, three TDs and a 7.1 YPC average.
Dan Quinn’s defense is improving each week. Washington has given up only 27 points in the last two weeks and has now limited three of its five opponents to 18 points or fewer.
Washington is ranked #2 in the NFL in both rushing yards and scoring with its 31.0 points-per-game average. The Commanders are #4 in the NFL in total offense. They’re ranked 14th in the NFL in total defense and #13 in pass defense.
Baltimore has played four one-possession games and two of its wins are by three points apiece, including yesterday’s 41-38 comeback win at Cincinnati in overtime.
The Ravens, who lost at home to Las Vegas in Week 2, are struggling defensively. They’re ranked #31 out of 32 NFL teams in pass defense, #26 in scoring ‘D’ (25.2 PPG) and #20 in total defense.
I made Baltimore a four-point favorite. I think this number is too rich and will happily support the red-hot Commanders as generous underdogs.
If you can buy the half-point to the key number of seven for a cost of merely -120 juice, I’d recommend doing that. If not, I’m good with the Commanders at +6 or +6.5.
PREDICTION: Washington +7 (-120 buying the hook) for 1.5 units.