As of early Tuesday afternoon, most books had Kansas City (16-2 straight up, 8-10 against the spread) listed as a two-point home favorite for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game vs. Buffalo. The total was 47.5 points.
Most spots had the Chiefs at -130 on the money line, with DraftKings offering the best price at -125.
Kansas City is really 16-1 since it rested so many starters in a 38-0 loss at Denver in its regular-season finale. Yes, the lone defeat came in a 30-21 loss at Buffalo on Nov. 17, but that gives the Chiefs the revenge angle (not as if that’s needed with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line).
Whatever the case, Andy Reid’s team is unbeaten in 10 home games at Arrowhead Stadium this season. Six of those 10 wins have come over opponents who made the playoffs, including victories over Houston (twice), the Chargers, the Broncos, the Bucs and the Ravens.
And the Bengals, who finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak and were the NFL’s best team that didn’t make the postseason.
Kansas City star quarterback Patrick Mahomes certainly hasn’t had his best season stats-wise, but he’s turned it on in the seven straight wins for the Chiefs (not counting the loss at Denver when Mahomes didn’t play) since losing to the Bills. In those seven victories, Mahomes has 12 TD passes without an interception.
The Chiefs have won eight games in a row in the playoffs, with Mahomes throwing 14 TD passes compared to only one interception.
In 19 career postseason contests, Mahomes has a 42/8 TD-INT ratio and five rushing TDs. He has 538 career rushing yards in the playoffs, a 5.5 yards-per-carry average and zero lost fumbles.
Mahomes has led the Chiefs to a 16-3 record in 19 career playoffs games. Two of the three losses came against Tom Brady, and the other was an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in 2021.
During the Mahomes Era in KC, the Chiefs are 3-0 against the Bills in three postseason head-to-head meetings. Mahomes has eight TD passes without an interception and one rushing TD in those three wins.
Buffalo (15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS) is dealing with more injuries than the Chiefs. Two starters in the secondary are listed as ‘questionable’ at KC.
Cornerback Christian Benford sustained a concussion in Sunday’s home win over Baltimore. In 15 regular-season games, Benford recorded 64 tackles, 10 passes broken up, four tackles for loss, two interceptions for 30 return yards, two forced fumbles, one sack and one fumble recovery. In two postseason games, he has nine tackles and one TFL.
Safety Taylor Rapp left the win over the Ravens with a hip injury and didn’t return. In 14 regular-season games this year, Rapp produced 82 tackles, six PBU, three TFL’s, two interceptions and one forced fumble. In wins over the Broncos and Ravens in the playoffs, Rapp had three tackles, one interception and one PBU.
I think Buffalo was extremely fortunate to beat the Ravens, who had a 418-273 advantage in total offense and a 23-20 edge in first downs. To their credit, the Bills created turnovers (+3 in turnover margin), and Baltimore TE Mark Andrews had two horrible plays that were the difference in the game.
Kickoff on CBS is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 2.5 units to win two by backing Kansas City on the money line at a -125 price (DraftKings).