As of Thursday morning, most books had the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread) installed as three-point road favorites (at a -105 price) at Jacksonville in a Week 11 AFC showdown. The total was 43.5 points at most spots, while the Jaguars were +125 to +130 on the money line.
Jim Harbaugh’s team has won three games in a row and four of its last five, including a 37-10 home win over Minnesota, a 27-20 win at Tennessee and a 25-10 home win over Pittsburgh last week. QB Justin Herbert has an 11/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the Chargers’ last five games.
For the season, Herbert has completed 67.0 percent of his passes for 2,610 yards with a 19/8 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence has connected on a career-low 59.5 percent of his throws. He has 1,998 passing yards and a 10/7 TD-INT ratio.
The Clemson product is currently ranked #28 in the NFL in QBR (41.9) and #32 in passer rating (79.3). Lawrence’s QBR and passer rating are at their lowest levels since his rookie campaign when he played for the worst coach in NFL history who will remain nameless in this space.
Jacksonville (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) got off to a nice 4-1 start, but that’s a distant memory at this point. The Jaguars have lost three of their last four games, going 0-3-1 ATS, and they let a 29-10 lead with less than 13 minutes remaining get away in last week’s 36-29 loss at Houston.
Lawrence completed only 13-of-23 passes for 158 yards and one TD with one interception. On the flip side, the Texans were playing without their franchise QB CJ Stroud, who was out with a concussion.
No Stroud? No problem.
Backup QB Davis Mills completely outplayed Lawrence. He hit 27-of-45 passes for 292 yards and two TDs with one interception. The Stanford product also had 20 rushing yards and one TD on just three attempts.
With the Texans trailing 29-24 with 6:10 remaining, Mills led a 14-play, 93-yard drive that chewed up 5:39 of clock. His 14-yard TD run with 31 ticks left gave his team its first lead of the day.
Mills’ crunch-time heroics had to remind Jags’ fans of Week 2. That’s when Liam Cohen’s defense couldn’t close out another game even with the opposing offense buried deep in its own territory with its starting QB out with an injury.
It was Cincinnati backup signal caller Jake Browning who delivered back in Week 2. Browning led a 15-play, 92-yard drive that he capped with a one-yard TD run with 18 seconds remaining to give the Bengals a 31-27 come-from-behind win.
As of Thursday morning, seven Jacksonville starters on offense were listed as ‘questionable,’ including four of five starters on the offensive line with OT Walker Little being the lone exception. Now, at this early stage of the week, we aren’t implying that all (or any?) of these players aren’t going to be in uniform on Sunday, but it’s certainly not a good sign for the struggling Jags.
Remember, WR/CB Travis Hunter is already on injured reserve and out for the season. WR1 Brian Thomas Jr., who had 87 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 TDs in a breakout rookie year in 2024, missed the loss to the Texans and was limited at Wednesday’s practice.
Jacksonville TE Hunter Long, who has 12 catches for 85 yards and two TDs, was also out at Houston and didn’t participate in Wednesday’s practice.
We clearly have two teams going in opposite directions here. Most important, we have decided advantages at the QB position and in the head-coaching department with the Chargers.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 2.1 units to win two units on the Chargers -3 at a -105 price at Jacksonville.