It’s rare that we get blindsided by a blockbuster trade without any noise leaking out beforehand, but it happened last week when the New York Giants shipped receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns.
Just like that, the franchise that went 0-16 in 2017 tied for the fifth-best odds to win the 2019 Super Bowl at +1400, according to MyBookie.
Let’s break down what the OBJ trade means for NFL futures bets
TEAM FUTURES (odds provided by MyBookie)
Browns to win the Super Bowl +1400
At these odds, Cleveland sits behind the last four teams standing in 2018 — New England (+700), Kansas City (+750), the Los Angeles Rams (+750), and New Orleans (+800). The +1400 odds also represent a tie with Chicago and the Los Angeles Chargers.
While I think Super Bowl aspirations are a little overblown, you’ll see I’m still high on this team with the rest of these props.
Browns to win the AFC +700
Here’s where I start to wonder if there’s value, but until we see the Patriots (+300) crack in a postseason, it’s tough to bet against them. The Patriots’ stranglehold on the AFC is as tight as ever, as they’ve played in four of the last five Super Bowls.
Browns to win the AFC North +175
I love the value here. The Steelers (+200) lost two of the top skill players in the NFL, and have a QB who’s aging and possibly quitting on his team. The Ravens (+250) were solid down the stretch in 2018, but there’s only so far a power-running game led by Lamar Jackson can go, compared to a passer with an elite ceiling like Baker Mayfield. And Baltimore has completely revamped its strong defense. We don’t even need to consider the Bengals (+700). This is Cleveland’s year in this division after finishing 2018-19 on a 5-2 run.
Browns to make the playoffs +140
If you want to give yourself a little wiggle room, you don’t lose much on your potential payout by leaving the two wild-card spots available to you.. While I don’t consider the Steelers much of a threat, the +200 odds in the division imply they should be. I think the Browns win the division, but it’s worth being conservative and still getting well above even odds.
Browns win a playoff game +400
If you think the Browns will make the playoffs, you can get some great return on the Browns winning a playoff game. Let’s say you want to wager one unit on Cleveland’s playoff futures. Consider something along the lines of 0.8 units on the tam making the playoffs, and 0.2 units to win a playoff game at +400. If Vegas considers Cleveland the third-best team in the AFC, that gives the team a good chance at a home playoff game in the divisional round.
Browns win total: 9.5 (+150/-200)
Forget the 7-8-1 record. I’m focused on the 5-2 to finish the season. The offense will get hype, but the Browns have a solid defense too. I think this is a 10- or 11-win team, so getting +150 on the over is strong value.
PLAYER PROPS (odds provided by BetOnline)
Odell Beckham Jr. receptions: 89.5
OBJ topped this number the first three seasons of his career, and 77 catches in 12 games last season put him on pace to do it again if he’d have stayed healthy. However, with target-monster Jarvis Landry lined up next to him, and Mayfield familiar with Landry, I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting this over.
Beckham receiving yards: 1,100.5
We know Beckham gets behind the defense and rips off big plays. OBJ averaged 1,374 yards his first three seasons in the league — when the Giants were competitive. He came up just 49 yards short of this mark last season when the Giants were a clown show, doing so in just 12 games. I like the over.
Beckham receiving touchdowns: 8.5
Again, looking at his first three seasons in the league, OBJ averaged almost 12 touchdowns. He should revert back to that player after this high-flying offense rejuvenates him. We should expect double-digit touchdowns if he stays healthy.
Beckham to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+700)
While I do like the over in receiving yards, leading the league is too much to ask. Landry should still see more targets than Beckham, and let’s not forget about the tremendous running game with Nick Chubb. This isn’t a spot to reach on a big payout.
Mayfield passing yards: 4,200.5
Mayfield threw for 3,725 yards in 14 games as a rookie, and missed some time during a couple of those games. With a full season as the starter, and an elite receiver added to the mix, this is an easy over for me in today’s NFL.
Mayfield passing touchdowns: 29.5
Chubb is a great back, and I expect him to be a first-round fantasy pick in 2019. But this number is also too low for Baker. Mayfield tossed 27 touchdowns as a rookie, and again, that was in closer to 13 games worth of snaps. Asking him to reach the end zone just three more times in his second season with the targets he has should be a piece of cake.