The Buffalo Bills (15-4 straight up, 12-7 against the spread) beat Baltimore in a 27-25 thriller to advance to the AFC Championship Game, taking advantage of a +3 turnover margin that was critical. They cashed tickets as one or 1.5-point home underdogs, while the 52 combined points resulted in a push for some bettors.
With that said, some spots closed at 51.5 points and gamblers had most of the week to take the ‘over’ at 51.5.
Both teams scored touchdowns on their opening drives. The Ravens drew first blood when Lamar Jackson found Rashod Bateman for a 16-yard TD connection.
Buffalo answered with an 11-play, 70-yard drive. The key play was on a fourth and two when QB Josh Allen ran seven yards for a first down. Ray Davis capped the drive with a one-yard TD run.
Two plays later, Jackson threw an interception, but he was bailed out by the Ravens’ defense when they forced a three and out. However, on Baltimore’s next possession, it gained four first downs and advanced to Buffalo’s 28. But on a second-and-10 play, Jackson was sacked and coughed up a fumble.
Von Miller scooped up Jackson’s fumble and raced 39 yards to the Baltimore 24. Four plays later, the Bills took a 14-7 lead on Allen’s one-yard TD run.
The Ravens responded by driving 57 yards in nine plays and chewing up more than five minutes of clock. Jackson hit Bateman for a 42-yard gain to set up a first-and-goal opportunity at the Buffalo 2.
But Derrick Henry was stopped for a loss of one yard on the next play. Then Jackson was sacked for a five-yard loss. On third and goal from the 8, Jackson threw an incomplete pass, and Baltimore was forced to settle for a 26-yard field goal from Justin Tucker.
With 3:43 remaining, Buffalo took over and promptly marched 70 yards in nine plays. The key play came on a third-and-five situation from Baltimore’s 30 with a controversial call.
Allen threw down the field for Keon Coleman, who engaged with CB Tre’Davious White in mutual hand fighting before appearing to push White to the ground. Whatever the case, White was flagged for pass interference when it could’ve easily been a no-call or PI on Coleman.
Three plays later on third and two with 20 seconds left in the first half, Allen scored on a four-yard TD run to give his team a 21-10 lead going into halftime.
Buffalo received the opening kick to start the third quarter, but Baltimore forced a quick three and out. Then the Ravens went 35 yards on nine plays to set up a 47-yard field goal by Tucker to trim the deficit to eight points.
Another stop by Baltimore gave it the ball at its own 20 with 5:21 remaining in the stanza. The Ravens then went 80 yards in seven plays with Henry scoring on a five-yard TD run with 1:37 left in the third quarter.
Jackson’s throw to TE Isaiah Likely for the two-point conversion fell incomplete for Buffalo to maintain a 21-19 lead. On their next drive, the Bills extended their advantage to 24-19 thanks to a 51-yard field goal by Tyler Bass.
Several plays later, Baltimore went for it on fourth and one and converted when TE Mark Andrews took a tush-push snap and gained two yards. Then on second and 11, Jackson connected with Andrews for a first down into Buffalo territory for a 16-yard gain.
But as Andrews was fighting for extra yards and didn’t have two hands protecting the ball, Terrel Bernard forced a fumble and recovered it at the Buffalo 46 with 8:41 remaining.
The Bills chewed up more than five minutes of clock on its next possession, going 52 yards in 11 plays. They were forced to settle for a 21-yard field goal by Bass on fourth and goal from the 2.
With 3:23 left, Baltimore took over at its own 12 after a holding call on the kick return. The Ravens went 88 yards on eight plays, scoring on a 24-yard TD pass from Jackson to Likely with 1:33 left to set up a crucial two-point conversion attempt.
Jackson rolled to his right and fired to Andrews, who dropped the ball instead of catching it and falling back into the end zone to tie the game.
Baltimore’s onside kick was unsuccessful, allowing Buffalo to run the clock out after a 17-yard run from Ty Johnson. Despite that 17-yard gain, the Ravens still had a 416-273 advantage in total offense. They had a 23-20 edge in first downs, but the most important stat was Buffalo’s +3 turnover margin.
Allen completed 16-of-22 passes for only 127 yards, but he committed zero turnovers. He was limited to 20 rushing yards on 10 attempts, but he had a pair of TD runs. Khalil Shakir had six receptions for 67 yards.
Damar Hamlin had eight tackles, two tackles for loss and one sack, and AJ Epenesa recorded six tackles and a pair of TFL’s.
Jackson connected on 18-of-25 throws for 254 yards and two TDs, but he had the costly fumble and one interception. He had 39 rushing yards on six attempts, while Henry ran for 84 yards and one TD on 16 carries. Likely had four catches for 73 yards and one TD, while Bateman caught four balls for 66 yards and one TD.
Andrews had five receptions for 61 yards, but he’ll be remembered for the two other plays. Justice Hill provided an excellent change of pace to Henry, rushing for 50 yards on only six totes.
For the AFC Championship Game, most shops opened Kansas City as a 1.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Buffalo. As of early Monday afternoon, most spots had the Chiefs installed as two-point home favorites with a total of 47.5.