49ers vs Saints Match Player Stats | Week 2 Sunday 2025

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SF @ NO

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Todays Matchup Details

Week 2 San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Todays Game is on Sunday, September 14th
14/09/25 13:00:00 PM EST Kickoff

Positives for the San Francisco 49ers Game Today

The New Orleans Saints have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kellen Moore, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

This week’s spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The model projects Chris Olave to garner 8.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Chris Olave has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 21.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.

This game’s spread implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.

The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.0 plays on offense called: the most on the slate this week.

The model projects Christian McCaffrey to total 18.8 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Since the start of last season, the tough Saints run defense has allowed a mere 5.07 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 31st-lowest rate in the league.

This week, Juwan Johnson is projected by the model to slot into the 93rd percentile among TEs with 6.1 targets.

When it comes to air yards, Juwan Johnson grades out in the lofty 86th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 34.0 per game.

Right now, the 8th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (41.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.

The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to accrue 13.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Alvin Kamara has picked up 63.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (88th percentile).

Negatives with the New Orleans Saints Game Today

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.1% pass rate.

New Orleans’s passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats deflated) as a result of playing the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the league.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Chris Olave’s 48.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 73.7% rate.

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.3 plays per game.

As it relates to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, New Orleans’s unit has been excellent since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

Juwan Johnson’s 70.4% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 76.7% rate.

Since the start of last season, the daunting 49ers defense has surrendered a paltry 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the best in the league.

The model projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his team’s ground game in this week’s contest (50.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (63.0% in games he has played).

With an awful record of 3.98 adjusted yards per carry (24th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara ranks among the bottom RBs in the NFL at the position.

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