NFL season win totals have been floating around since late March and now most sportsbooks have them posted ahead of the 2021 draft.
Kansas City, which is coming off three consecutive 12-win seasons, has opened with the highest win total for the upcoming 17-game regular season. DraftKings opened the Chiefs with a total of 12, with the juice at -110 on both sides in late March.
They have since taken some action on the ‘over,’ with the vigorish moving to -121 for them to go ‘over’ that total. Tampa Bay, the reigning Super Bowl champions, has the second-highest total at 11.5.
DraftKings opened the Buccaneers with -110 juice on both sides of the 11.5-win total. They now have the ‘over’ juiced to -125.
Bettors could be anticipating a mispricing from sportsbooks due to the additional regular season game. Houston has the lowest total at 4.5, which is in part due to the question marks surrounding the status of quarterback Deshaun Watson.
He requested a trade prior to having 22 lawsuits filed against him. The lawsuits are alleging inappropriate conduct and sexual assault, so his status for next season is unclear. Houston’s ‘over’ price has dipped from 4.5 (-125) to 4.5 (-110).
The NFC West is expected to be the best division in football this season. Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona and Los Angeles have a combined total of 38.5. The 49ers and Rams lead the way, as both teams have a total of 10.5. Arizona is at 8 and Seattle is at 9.5.
“I think we’ll see over money on the Rams. They have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, and they’re built to win now,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “They had a question mark at quarterback and made the trade for Matthew Stafford, and they signed DeSean Jackson to take the top off the defense.”
Here are several win totals that caught my attention:
Washington ‘Over’ 8 (-134)
Washington is one of many teams that has seen the early betting action on the ‘over,’ but there is still value to be had at this price.
The Football Team has made a significant upgrade at quarterback in an offseason that followed a playoff berth. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s benching was one of the worst decisions made by any team in the NFL last season.
He was blazing hot for Miami and was the only real reason why the Dolphins had a decent record once the smoke cleared at the end of the season. Fitzpatrick will be a definitive upgrade from Alex Smith.
He provides a stabilizing force to a franchise that already has a top-level defense. I am also bearish on the NFC East as a whole, which sets up nicely for Washington’s schedule. “Fitzmagic” will lead Washington to the playoffs and the team will go ‘over’ this low total.
Detroit ‘Under’ 5 (-121)
Not even an additional game will allow Detroit to come close to a .500 record this season.
The Lions are one of the few teams that has seen betting action come in on the ‘under.’ This might not be an appealing wager because they already have the second-lowest total in the NFL, but I don’t see them winning five games.
They are dealing with a complete front office overhaul and have also made a change at head coach in Dan Campbell. Detroit is also moving on from long-time quarterback Matthew Stafford, so it’s not much of a surprise that this is expected to be a rough season.
Jared Goff will take over as the starting signal-caller—he is a downgrade from Stafford. Goff relies on a gameplan that does not force him to do too much, but the Lions do not have enough quality skill players to allow him to run a smooth ship.
Goff will probably take care of the ball, but the Lions are going to be going 3-and-out more than any team in football. This is going to be a forgettable transition year for a franchise that has already struggled to win games.