For my thoughts on the first four games on Saturday’s Week Zero slate, go to Part I of Week Zero Tips here.
**Hawaii at Vanderbilt**
-As of Friday afternoon, most books had Vanderbilt installed as a 17.5-point home favorite with a total of 55.5 or 56. The Rainbow Warriors were +650 on the money line at most spots, but South Point had +700 and Circa was at +775. For first-half wagers, Vandy was favored by 10 points with a total of 28.5.
-When these schools met in Honolulu last season, Vanderbilt outscored Hawaii 35-0 in the third quarter and coasted to a 63-10 win as an eight-point road favorite. The 73 combined points soared ‘over’ the 54.5-point total. The Commodores ended the game scoring 49 unanswered points.
-In Year 2 on Clark Lea’s watch, Vandy improved to 5-7 both straight up and ATS. The Commodores pulled a pair of SEC upsets in November, winning 24-21 at Kentucky as 17.5-point road underdogs. Then a week later at home, I had the terrible misfortune of going to Nashville to see my Gators drop a 31-24 decision as 14-point road ‘chalk.’ With a chance to get bowl eligible, however, Vandy took a 56-0 pimpslap from Tennessee as a 14-point home underdog.
-Vandy returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The star of the team is junior wide receiver Will Sheppard, who has started 23 games in his first two seasons. In 2022, he had 60 receptions for 776 yards and nine TDs. He’s a second-team All-SEC selection in Phil Steele’s preseason magazine. Junior safety De’Rickey Wright is a member of Steele’s third-team All-SEC squad. Wright had 55 tackles, seven passes broken up, three interceptions and 2.5 tackles for loss in 2022.
-Lea has his quarterback of the present and future in AJ Swann, who connected on 115-of-198 throws (58.1%) for 1,274 yards with a 10/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a true freshman last season. WR Jayden McGowan was another standout as a true freshman in 2022, hauling in 44 catches for 453 yards and three TDs.
-According to the 247Sports Composite, Vandy had the nation’s No. 69 overall recruiting class, but it was No. 52 before factoring in transfers. With such high academic standards, it isn’t easy for the Commodores to land transfers. They’ve added only three (for a No. 87 ranking for its transfer-specific imports) and one of them is a kicker. Lea picked up a pair of transfer linebackers, Prince Kollie (Notre Dame) and Aeneas DiCosmo (Stanford).
-Vandy will be without starting defensive tackle Christian James, who is ‘out’ with a foot injury. James started all 12 games last year, contributing 31 tackles, 6.5 TFL’s, two sacks, two QB Hurries and two PBU. DE Darren Agu, who started three games in 2022 and finished the year with 14 tackles, three QB Hurries, one sack and one PBU, is also ‘out’ with a dislocated elbow.
-Vandy is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite during Lea’s tenure. The Commodores lost 23-3 to East Tennessee St. as 21-point home favorites in the 2021 season opener. They beat UConn 30-28 as 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ in 2021 and knocked off Elon 42-31 last year as 19.5-point favorites.
-Vandy saw 10 of its 12 games in 2022 result in combined scores of 55 points or more. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in the Commodores’ last six games of 2022, but their totals were still an overall wash (6-6).
-Hawaii went 3-10 SU in the first season under head coach Timmy Chang, the program’s all-time leader in career passing yards (17,072) who ranks second in NCAA history being only Houston’s Case Keenum. But Chang did a solid job one year after all of the program’s top talent transferred before Todd Graham was fired. Chang’s excellent work with an inferior roster is evidenced by the Rainbow Warriors’ 9-4 ATS record. They went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, including a 31-16 win over Nevada as 6.5-point home underdogs and a 31-25 over UNLV as 11-point home ‘dogs.
-Hawaii returns nine starters on defense and five on offense. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 19.8 point per game offensively in 2022, and they allowed an average of 34.7 PPG. They finished the season -8 in turnover margin and -1,240 in net yardage.
-QB Brayden Schager started 10 of 13 games for the Rainbow Warriors last season. He completed 221-of-400 passes (55.3%) for 2,348 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Sophomore WR Jalen Walthall returns after snagging 27 catches for 333 yards and one TD. Jonah Panoke is also back after making 27 receptions for 312 yards and one TD.
-Hawaii CB Cameron Stone is its lone player chosen as a preseason first-team All-MWC selection in Steele’s mag. RB Tylan Hines and LB Logan Taylor are preseason second-team All-MWC choices. Hines ran for 634 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.6 yards per carry in 2022. He also had nine catches for 82 receiving yards. Taylor had a team-best 85 tackles to go with four TFL’s, three QB Hurries, one sack and one interception.
-Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
**San Jose St. at USC**
-As of Friday, most books had USC listed as a 31-point home favorite with a total of 66. For first-half bets, the Trojans were favored by 19.5 or 20 with a total of 35.5. The Spartans were +1300 on the money line in the first half at South Point, and they were +2500 to win the game outright at DraftKings.
-In Lincoln Riley’s first year on the job, USC finished 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS. The Trojans went 11-1 during the regular season, taking their only loss at Utah when the Utes rallied from a double-digit deficit to win a 43-42 thriller in Salt Lake City. In the rematch at the Pac-12 Championship Game, Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams wasn’t himself after injuring his hamstring in the first half. The Utes took advantage and rolled to a 47-24 win as 2.5-point underdogs.
-USC faced Tulane in the Cotton Bowl and had a 14-point halftime lead. The Trojans extended their lead to 45-30 thanks to a Denis Lynch field goal with 4:30 remaining. However, the Green Wave quickly answered. First, Lawrence Keys had a 37-yard kickoff return. Next, Michael Pratt found Deuce Watts for a 59-yard completion. Then Tyjae Spears scored on a four-yard TD run to make it a one-possession game with 4:07 remaining. On the ensuing kickoff, USC’s Mario Williams fumbled the ball out of bounds at his team’s own 1. Two plays later, USC RB Austin Jones was stuffed in the end zone for a safety. Tulane took over trailing by six at its own 34 with 3:00 remaining. On a fourth-and-six play from the 38, Pratt ran eight yards for a first down. Facing a fourth-and-10 situation with only 25 ticks left, Pratt found Alex Bauman for a 24-yard completion to USC’s 30. After the Green Wave spiked the ball, 22 seconds were remaining. Pratt found Watts again for a 24-yard gain to USC’s 6 with 12 seconds left. Two plays later, Pratt connected with Bauman for a six-yard TD pass with nine seconds left to secure a 46-45 Tulane win as a two-point underdog.
-USC returns eight starters on offense and nine on defense. The offense led by Williams averaged 41.4 points per game, but the defense gave up an average of 29.2 PPG. The defense got pushed around at times but to their credit, they forced a lot of turnovers. In fact, the Trojans finished the year with the nation’s best turnover margin (+22). They were +1,157 in net yardage.
-According to the 247Sports Composite, USC’s 2023 recruiting class is ranked #7 overall and #4 in terms of transfer-specific players. Riley brought in 15 transfers, including nine four-star players. Some of the bigger gets from the portal include ex-Arizona WR Dorian Singer, RB Marshawn Lloyd (South Carolina), DT Bear Alexander (Georgia), DE Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), DT Jack Sullivan (Purdue), LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma St.) and CB Christian Roland-Wallace (Arizona). There are three incoming freshmen who are five-star recruits, including WR Zachariah Branch, QB Malachi Nelson and TE Duce Robinson.
-Williams was spectacular as a true sophomore, completing 66.6 percent of his passes for 4,537 yards with a 42/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also produced 382 rushing yards and 10 TDs. Williams loses his favorite target in Jordan Addison, but he still has WRs Tahj Washington (50 catches for 758 yards and six TDs), Mario Williams (40/631/5 TDs) and Brenden Rice (39/611/4 TDs).
-USC lost its top RB in Travis Dye, but Lloyd and Austin Jones are more than ready to carry the load. Jones had 705 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.2 yards-per-carry average for the Trojans in 2022. He also caught 25 balls for 267 receiving yards and one TD. Lloyd had 573 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 5.2 YPC average in nine games for the Gamecocks. He also had 18 receptions for 176 yards and two TDs.
-Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have USC at #1 at QB, #9 at RB, #3 at WR, #19 on the o-line, #19 on the d-line, #9 at LB, #32 in the secondary and #57 on special teams.
-San Jose St. compiled a 7-5 SU record to go with a 4-8 ATS mark last season. The Spartans, who lost a 41-27 decision to Eastern Michigan as four-point favorites in the Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, return nine starters on offense and five on defense. Last year’s stop unit gave up an average of just 22.0 PPG, while the offense scored at a 27.4 PPG clip.
-QB Chevan Cordeiro is back for his sixth season. He started 23 times in 36 appearances at Hawaii from 2018-21, but the enjoyed his best season last year as a Spartan. Cordeiro completed 259-of-427 throws (60.7%) for 3,251 yards with a 23/6 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for 265 yards and nine TDs. Cordeiro has 9,418 career passing yards with a 68/28 TD-INT ratio. He has 1,348 career rushing yards and 22 TDs.
-Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Spartans #52 at QB and #64 in the secondary.
-San Jose St. owns a 13-12 spread record in 25 games as a road underdog during Brent Brennan’s tenure that’s entering its seventh season.
-Kickoff on the Pac-12 Network is set for 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Florida International at La. Tech**
-As of Friday, most books had Louisiana Tech listed as a 12-point home favorite with a total of 57.5. The Panthers were +350 on the money line. The Bulldogs were by 6.5 or seven with a total of 29 in the first half.
-Former La. Tech HC Skip Holtz had six winning seasons in a row from 2014-19, winning at least eight games five times. However, the Bulldogs went 5-5 in 2020 and 3-9 in 2021 before Holtz and the school parted ways. In the first year on Sonny Cumbie’s watch, La. Tech struggled to a 3-9 SU record and a 6-6 ATS ledger. The Bulldogs went 0-3 in one-possession games.
-La. Tech finished 2022 -921 in net yardage and -3 in turnover margin.
-Cumbie’s squad has eight starters back from an offense that generated 29.0 PPG, but this unit should be better with the addition of a new QB. Hank Bachmeier started 29 times at Boise St. from 2019-22, completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 6,605 career yards with a 41/19 TD-INT ratio. He was limited to four games due to injury in 2022. Bachmeier isn’t much a running threat, but he does have three career rushing TDs.
-Bachmeier will look for WR Smoke Harris early and often. The 5-foot-7 speedster had 66 catches for 640 yards and five TDs last season. Harris, who has 27 career starts to his credit, has 224 career receptions for 2,107 yards and 19 TDs. He also has 94 career rushing yards and two TDs. Harris handles most of the return duties, averaging 11.2 yards per on 54 career punt returns.
-La. Tech star RB Marquis Crosby is ‘out’ Saturday due to an undisclosed injury. Crosby led the Bulldogs with 918 rushing yards, nine TDs and 5.0 YPC average last year. Tyre Shelton, a transfer from Miami-Ohio who has started 15 career games and rushed for 1,153 yards (4.7 YPC), is listed as ‘questionable.’
-La. Tech has only four starters back from a defense that gave up an average of 37.9 PPG in 2022. This unit is hoping to get some help from out of the transfer portal. The Bulldogs brought in 19 transfers, including 13 on the defensive side of the ball.
-La. Tech went 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in five home games last year. The Bulldogs beat SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee by double-digit margins, but they lost 42-41 to Rice in overtime as 2.5-point ‘dogs and lost 37-27 to UAB as 18-point ‘dogs.
-Steele’s National Unit Rankings have La. Tech #38 on special teams and #62 in the secondary.
-Mike MacIntyre is entering his second season at FUI after going 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in his first season in Miami. The Panthers return seven starters on defense and five on offense. They scored at a pedestrian rate of 18.7 PPG in 2022. FIU’s defense gave up an average of 37.3 PPG. The Panthers were -1,540 in net yardage and -6 in turnover margin.
-FIU beat La. Tech 42-34 in double overtime as a six-point home underdog last year. When the Panthers last visited Ruston in 2019, they lost 43-31 as seven-point road underdogs.
-FIU went 2-4 both SU and ATS in six games as a road underdogs last season, winning 21-7 at New Mexico St. as a 14.5-point ‘dog and 34-15 at Charlotte as a 14-point ‘dog.
-One of five FIU starters back on the offensive side of the ball is Grayson James, who connected on 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,962 yards with an 11/11 TD-INT ratio in 2022. He had 223 rushing yards and three TDs.
-The CBS Sports Network will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.