Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines: UGA heavily favored vs. Mizzou

Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines: UGA heavily favored vs. Mizzou

As is its weekly custom, DraftKings released its look-ahead lines for Week 10 on Wednesday night. Let’s start with an SEC East showdown that could determine who meets the winner of the SEC West in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December.

Georgia (7-0 straight up, 2-5 against the spread) actually faces another division rival that controls its own destiny to make it to Atlanta this Saturday. That would be Florida, which was a 14.5-point underdog to the Bulldogs as of Thursday morning.

DraftKings has installed Kirby Smart’s team as a 15.5-point home favorite vs. Missouri on Nov. 4. The Tigers, who are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, have an open date this weekend to get healthy and prepare for the two-time defending national champions.

Remember, Eli Drinkwitz’s squad gave Georgia its toughest test of the 2022 regular season in a 26-22 loss. Missouri was a 30.5-point home underdog, but it raced out to a 13-0 lead midway through the second quarter.

When UGA finally got on the board with a field goal to make it 13-3, Drinkwitz’s team answered with a seven-play, 71-yard drive. However, the Tigers had to settle for a 22-yard field goal after mustering only two yards in three plays starting with a first-and-goal opportunity at UGA’s 6.

Nevertheless, when Georgia kicker Jack Podlesny missed a 34-yard FGA on the final play of the first half, Missouri took a 16-6 advantage into halftime. When UGA consumed 7:47 off the clock on its opening drive of the third quarter, it had to settle for a 28-yard field goal and the Tigers maintained a 16-9 lead with 5:53 remaining in the third quarter.

Missouri went back in front by two possessions when Harrison Mevis buried a 52-yard FG on its next drive. Brady Cook’s 46-yard pass to Mookie Cooper was the key play of the possession.

Trailing 19-9, UGA got a 29-yard FG from Podlesny with 2:15 left in the third to make it 19-12. Once again, though, the Tigers countered with a 56-yard FG by Mevis to lead 22-12 with 14:09 remaining.

Finally, UGA found the end zone for the first time on its ensuing drive when Kendall Milton scored on a one-yard TD run with 9:39 left. After forcing a punt, the Bulldogs took their first lead of the night on a one-yard TD run from Daijun Edwards with 4:03 remaining.

After Georgia forced a Missouri three and out, it was able to kill the clock and get out of Columbia unscathed. With the exception of Smart’s team needing some late-game heroics to edge Ohio St. in a 42-41 thriller at the College Football Playoff semifinals in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve, UGA’s battle with Missouri was its only other one-possession game of 2022.

Missouri QB Brady Cook completed 20-of-32 passes for 192 yards and one touchdown without an interception vs. UGA last season. RB Cody Schrader, who goes into Week 9 leading the SEC in rushing yards (807) and rushing TDs (nine), had 89 rushing yards on just six attempts.

UGA has won nine straight games over Missouri, but the Tigers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings. As a road underdog during Drinkwitz’s four-year tenure, Missouri has compiled a 6-6 spread record with two outright victories.

Missouri (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games this year, winning 38-21 both times at Vanderbilt and at Kentucky on Sept. 30 and Oct. 14, respectively. UGA is 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this season. The Bulldogs are 4-0 in SEC games, while UF and Missouri are both 3-1.

DraftKings has Alabama (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) listed as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. LSU. Like Missouri, the Tigers and Crimson Tide are off this weekend to rest and prepare to renew their bitter rivalry.

Going into Week 9, we have a three-team race in the SEC West. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 in SEC play and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ole Miss, which is 3-1 in league action going into Saturday’s home game vs. Vanderbilt. LSU (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) is 4-1 in five SEC contests, with the Rebels holding the tiebreaker against it based on their 55-49 home win over Brian Kelly’s club.

After hosting Vandy, Lane Kiffin’s squad still has three difficult SEC games: vs. Texas A&M, at UGA and at Mississippi St. Nick Saban’s bunch plays its final two SEC contests on the road at Kentucky (Nov. 11) and at Auburn (Nov. 25), while LSU completes its SEC slate at home vs. Florida and vs. Texas A&M.

Alabama exacted revenge on Tennessee from its loss at Neyland Stadium last year when it rallied from a 20-7 halftime deficit to beat the Volunteers 34-20 as a nine-point home favorite at Bryant-Denny Stadium last week. Now the Tide is in the same role vs. LSU, which beat ‘Bama 32-31 in overtime last season thanks to Jaylen Daniels’ two-point conversion pass to Mason Taylor on the game’s final play.

Daniels connected on 22-of-32 passes for 182 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had a team-best 95 rushing yards and one TD on 18 attempts. Going into Week 9, Daniels leads the nation in TD passes (25), QB Rating (204.32) and passing yards per attempt (11.5), and he’s second in passing yards (2,573, which is only three yards shy of Washington’s Michael Penix).

Kelly’s team has won three games in a row both SU and ATS since its gut-wrenching loss at Ole Miss, and Alabama has ripped off six consecutive victories while going 4-2 ATS since its home loss to Texas (37-27) in Week 2.

In other games on a stacked Week 10 card, DraftKings has Troy as a three-point home favorite vs. South Alabama on Thursday. The other contests include Penn St. -12 at Maryland, Oklahoma -10 at Oklahoma St., Texas -9 vs. Kansas St., Ole Miss -5 vs. Texas A&M, Washington -1.5 at USC, Oregon St. -11.5 at Colorado and Clemson -2 vs. Notre Dame.

In the Sun Belt West standings, Troy, South Alabama and Texas St. are in a first-place tie with 2-1 league records. The Bobcats are set to host the Trojans this Saturday, while the Jaguars are poised to host Louisiana.

Troy is 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games against South Alabama. The Trojans take a four-game winning streak (along with three consecutive ATS covers) into San Marcos this weekend.

Penn St. (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) saw its 13-0 ATS roll ended in last week’s 20-12 loss at Ohio St. as a four-point road underdog. The Nittany Lions host Indiana on Saturday before going to College Park.

PSU is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the Terrapins, including a 30-0 win as a 10.5-point home ‘chalk’ last year. Maryland is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog during Mike Locksley’s five-year tenure.

Since losing 33-7 at home to South Alabama and dropping its Big 12 opener 34-27 at Iowa St., Oklahoma St. (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won three games in a row both SU and ATS. The Cowboys have been underdogs in all three games, including last week’s 48-34 win at West Virginia.

Before prevailing in Morgantown, Mike Gundy’s team beat Kansas St. 29-21 as an 11.5-point home underdog and rallied to top Kansas 39-32 as a three-point home ‘dog. Gundy’s teams are now 7-1 both SU and ATS in eight games as home ‘dogs since 2016.

Texas (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won six in a row over Kansas St., but five of those six victories have been one-possessions games. The Longhorns aren’t going to have starting QB Quinn Ewers (shoulder) for at least a few weeks after he was injured in last week’s 31-24 home win over Houston.

Kansas St. (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its last four outings, winning back-to-back games in blowout fashion at Texas Tech (38-21) and vs. TCU (41-3) since the loss in Stillwater.

Since losing 24-10 at Alabama on Sept. 23, Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has won three straight nail-biters vs. LSU, vs. Arkansas (27-20) and at Auburn (28-21). The Rebels will be seeking a third win a row over the Aggies, who dropped a 31-28 decision to Kiffin’s team in College Station last year.

Texas A&M (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) is 5-6 ATS in 11 games as a road underdog on Jimbo Fisher’s watch since 2018. The Aggies are double-digit ‘chalk’ vs. South Carolina this weekend, so the expectation is that they’ll improve to 5-3 overall with a win over the Gamecocks.

Unless you think Texas A&M is going to win at LSU in the regular-season finale for both teams, a win in Oxford (and a home win vs. Mississippi St. in Week 11) is required for the Aggies to go 8-4 during the regular season. With all the money Fisher makes, it’s assumed that most of A&M’s big donors will find anything less than 8-4 unacceptable in Year 6 of his tenure.

That premise raises the stakes for next Saturday’s matchup between Kiffin and Fisher, who have shared a mutual dislike for each other for many years.

Washington (7-0 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) remains undefeated, but it is mired in a 0-3 ATS slide after one-possession wins at Arizona (31-24), vs. Oregon (36-33) and vs. Arizona St. (15-7). The Huskies, who had to get an 89-yard pick-six midway through the fourth quarter to take their first lead of the game in last week’s win over the Sun Devils, haven’t faced the Trojans since beating them 28-14 as 10.5-point home favorites in 2019.

Washington currently leads USC (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) by one-half game in the Pac-12 standings thanks to its 4-0 mark in league play. The Trojans are 4-1 in Pac-12 games going into Saturday’s game at California, while the Huskies travel to The Farm to take on Stanford.

Oregon St. (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s road game at Arizona. The Beavers, who are 3-1 in conference play and get to host Washington on Nov. 18, will be in a back-to-back road spot when they travel to Bouder to take on the Buffaloes.

Clemson (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) hasn’t been a home underdog since 2016. However, if Dabo Swinney’s team loses at NC. St. on Saturday, don’t be surprised if its two-point home favorite role vs. Notre Dame is flipped by Sunday afternoon.

The Tigers will be looking for revenge on the Fighting Irish, who blasted Clemson 35-14 in South Bend last year.