We already touched on the September Games of the Year lines covering Weeks 2 through 5 at DraftKings, so now let’s move ahead to the Week 6 numbers for Oct. 4.
The betting shop has four lined contests, including Miami -7.5 at FSU, Clemson -12.5 at North Carolina, Texas -7.5 at Florida and Notre Dame -15.5 vs. Boise St.
Mike Norvell’s team saw its three-game winning streak over the Hurricanes snapped in South Florida last year when Mario Cristobal’s bunch collected a 36-14 non-covering win as a 22.5-point home favorite. The Seminoles went on to finish the year with an atrocious 2-10 straight-up record and a 3-8-1 against-the-spread mark.
Miami has two weeks to prepare for FSU with its open date sandwiched between a home game vs. Florida (Sept. 20) and its trip to Tallahassee to face its other hated in-state rival. Meanwhile, the ‘Noles will be off of their ACC opener at Virgina on Sept. 26 on a Friday night.
According to Athlon’s preseason magazine, Clemson has eight starters returning on offense and six on defense from a team that went 10-4 overall, beat SMU in the ACC Championship Game and lost 38-24 at Texas in the opening round of the College Football Playoff.
We should all be proud of Dabo Swinney, who actually used the portal to bring in three new players. Former Purdue EDGE rusher Will Heldt and ex-Southeast Missouri St. WR Tristan Smith are both four-star transfers. Ex-Alabama linebacker Jeremiah Alexander is a three-star transfer, but he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school in the 2022 class.
Alexander was a disappointment for the Crimson Tide, contributing only 11 tackles in 28 games across three seasons. Heldt played in 12 games for the Boilermakers last year, producing 56 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, five sacks and one fumble recovery that he returned 16 yards for a touchdown.
Smith had 76 receptions for 934 yards and six TDs for the Redhawks last year. He’s a 6-foot-5 target for Cade Klubnik, who already has an arsenal of weapons with WRs Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back. In fact, Athlon’s has Clemson’s WRs ranked #2 in its National Unit Rankings.
As for UNC, you can make a strong case that Bill Belichick’s first roster is a downgrade talent-wise from Mack Brown’s 2024 squad that finished 6-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS. The Tar Heels have upgraded at QB, but South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez didn’t sign with UNC until the late portal window after spring practice was over.
Lopez is a dual-threat guy who played in 11 games for the Jaguars in 2024. He completed 66.0 percent of his passes for 2,559 yards with an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Lopez also had 463 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average.
UF and Texas both have two weeks to prepare for each other. After its brutal opener at Ohio St., Steve Sarkisian’s team has three straight home games vs. Group-of-Five opponents in San Jose St., UTEP and Sam Houston.
Billy Napier’s club plays at LSU and at Miami in consecutive weeks before hosting the Longhorns, who trounced UF 49-17 as 23-point home ‘chalk’ last season. We should point out, however, that the Gators were using a third-string, walk-on QB making his first career start since Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway were sidelined with injuries.
UF owns a 6-3 record both SU and ATS in nine games as a home underdog during Napier’s tenure.
Boise St. has been a double-digit underdog only six times since 2004, compiling a 3-3 ATS record with one outright win. Notre Dame plays at Arkansas prior to hosting the Broncos, who have Appalachian St. at home ahead of their trip to South Bend.
DraftKings has five lined games for Week 7, including Georgia -7.5 at Auburn, Michigan -1.5 at USC, Utah -1.5 vs. Arizona St., Oregon -14 vs. Indiana and Texas -11.5 vs. Oklahoma.
In UGA’s last trip to The Plains in 2023, Kirby Smart’s team had to rally from a 10-0 deficit in the second quarter and a 17-10 deficit late in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs captured a 27-20 win thanks to a 40-yard TD pass from Carson Beck to Brock Bowers with 2:52 remaining.
Auburn still hooked up its betting backers as a 14-point home underdog. As a home ‘dog during Hugh Freeze’s tenure, the Tigers have posted a 3-1 ATS record with one outright victory.
USC has two weeks to prepare for the Wolverines, who host Wisconsin the week before they make their lone trip of the season to the West coast. The Trojans are 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS in four games as home underdogs during Lincoln Riley’s tenure.
Arizona St. and Utah both have two weeks to prepare for each other. When they met in Tempe last year, the Sun Devils captured a 27-19 win as six-point home underdogs.
Kenny Dillingham’s team enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, compiling an 11-3 SU record and a 12-2 ATS mark. ASU trounced Iowa St. 45-19 as a 1.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Then in the CFP quarterfinals in Atlanta, ASU rallied from a 24-8 deficit with less than seven minutes remaining to force overtime vs. Texas. The Sun Devils took a 31-24 lead in the first OT, but Quinn Ewers responded with a 28-yard TD pass to Matthew Golden to force double OT.
Ewers found Gunnar Helm for a 25-yard TD pass in double OT to lift the Longhorns to a 39-31 win.
ASU returns nine starters on defense and seven on offense, including QB Sam Leavitt, who had a 24/6 TD-INT ratio and five rushing TDs last year.
Per Athlon’s preseason mag, Oregon is only returning two starters on offense and four on defense. But one of those two starters on offense, WR Evan Stewart, went down this past week with what’s feared to be a season-ending knee injury.
Dante Moore is taking over for Dillon Gabriel under center. Moore played in only five games for the Ducks last year, completing 7-of-8 passes for 49 yards. As a true freshman at UCLA after being signed by Chip Kelly as a five-star prospect, he connected on 53.5 percent of his throws for 1,610 yards with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio.
Like Oregon, Indiana has a new QB with California transfer Fernando Mendoza taking over for Kurtis Rourke. In 11 games for the Golden Bears in 2024, Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards with a 16/6 TD-INT ratio.
Mendoza has one of the country’s top WRs in Elijah Sarratt, who was a third-team All-Big Ten selection after snagging 53 catches for 957 yards and eight TDs last season. In 2023 while playing for James Madison, Sarratt was a first-team All-Sun Belt choice when he had 82 receptions for 1,191 yards and eight TDs.
Indiana was an underdog only twice last year, going 0-2 both SU and ATS with a pair of double-digit defeats.
Oklahoma is 11-5 SU in its last 16 Red River games against Texas, winning five of the last seven meetings, but the Sooners will be in revenge mode this year after being blasted 34-3 by the Longhorns as 17-point underdogs.
There are eight lined games for Week 8. Miami is -7.5 vs. Louisville, Arizona St. is -4.5 vs. Texas Tech, BYU is -2.5 vs. Utah, Alabama is -12.5 vs. Tennessee, UGA is -9.5 vs. Ole Miss, Michigan is -10 vs. Washington, Clemson is -11.5 vs. SMU and Notre Dame is -12.5 vs. USC.
The Hurricanes play host to Louisville on a Friday night. It’s not a short week for either team, though, because both schools have open dates beforehand.
Miami won a 52-45 thriller at Louisville as a four-point road favorite last year. Both teams have new QBs from the transfer portal with Beck, the former UGA signal caller, taking over for the ‘Canes. The new leader of the Cardinals’ offense is ex-USC QB Miller Moss.
Jeff Brohm went 12-5 ATS in 17 games as a road underdog during his six-year tenure at Purdue. He’s 1-1 both SU and ATS in two games as a road ‘dog at Louisville. The Cardinals lost 31-24 at Notre Dame last year as 6.5-point road ‘dogs, but they won 33-21 at Clemson as 10.5-point road ‘dogs.
ASU went 5-0 ATS as a home favorite last season, while Texas Tech posted a 3-0 ATS record with two outright victories in three games as a road underdog. The Red Raiders loaded up with talent from out of the portal thanks to their donors kicking in some serious cash to the program’s NIL arm.
According to the 247Sports Composite, Texas Tech has the country’s #21 overall recruiting class and the #2 group of transfer-specific imports. The Red Raiders inked 21 transfers, including 13 four-star players.
In our first look at Games of the Year for September, we hit on the weapons Texas Tech acquired out of the portal to help out the offense. Now let’s touch on the defensive talent the Red Raiders brought in.
Former Stanford EDGE David Bailey, ex-Ga. Tech EDGE Romello Height and former Central Florida DT Lee Hunter will start on the defensive line. Anthony Holmes (Houston) and Skyler Gill-Howard (No. Illinois) will compete for the other starting spot at DT.
In 32 games over three years at Stanford, Bailey produced 111 tackles, 23 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks and seven forced fumbles. His five forced fumbles last year ranked fourth in the nation.
Height contributed 34 tackles, seven TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one interception for Ga. Tech in 2024.
In 2023, Hunter had 11 TFL’s and three sacks for UCF. He garnered second-team All-Big 12 honors last season when he recorded 45 tackles, 10 TFL’s and one sack.
BYU has lost nine of the last 11 head-to-head meetings against Utah in the Holy War, but the Cougars won a 22-21 decision at Utah last year. The Utes covered the number as three-point home underdogs, though.
BYU returns five starters on offense and three on defense. Kalani Sitake’s 2024 squad finished 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 ATS after thumping Colorado 36-14 as a three-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl.
I think Alabama is overvalued by DraftKings with a lot of its numbers on these games, but I have no problem with the Tide being -12.5 at home to Tennessee. The Vols are going to former Appalachian St. QB Joey Aguilar after the whole Nico Iamaleava Saga.
Aguilar was outstanding for the Mountaineers in 2023, completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33/10 TD-INT ratio. His numbers weren’t as impressive last year when he connected on 55.9 percent of his throws for 3,003 yards and 23 TDs.
Aguilar’s 14 interceptions led the nation, and those came in 11 games rather than the 14 he played in 2023.
UGA will be looking for revenge when it hosts Ole Miss. The Rebels thumped the Bulldogs 28-10 in Oxford last year.
Michigan beat Washington in the CFP finals to win the national title in 2023, but the Huskies downed the Wolverines 27-17 as 1.5-point home favorites last season.
This matchup will feature a pair of talented young QBs in UW’s Demond Williams and UM’s Bryce Underwood, the true freshman who is hoping to beat out veteran Mikey Keene for the starting job in Ann Arbor.
The Huskies will be flying East for the second time in three weeks for this spot. They play at Maryland on Oct. 4.
Clemson will be returning home to face SMU after playing back-to-back road contests at UNC and at Boston College. The Mustangs are an abysmal 2-6 ATS in eight games as road underdogs during Rhett Lashlee’s tenure.
When these teams met in the ACC Championship Games last year, Clemson won a 34-31 decision as a 2.5-point underdog. Klubnik threw four TD passes in the first three quarters to give the Tigers as 31-14 lead going into the final stanza.
But SMU rallied to tie the game at 31-31 with 16 seconds remaining on Kevin Jennings’ four-yard TD pass to Roderick Daniels Jr. However, Swinney’s team won on Nolan Hauser’s 56-yard field goal as time expired.
Notre Dame has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against USC, including last year’s 49-35 win as a seven-point road favorite.
In Week 9, DraftKings has numbers for just four games. Michigan is an 8.5-point road ‘chalk’ at Michigan St., Alabama is a 7.5-point road favorite at South Carolina, Kansas St. is -4 at Kansas and LSU is -4.5 vs. Texas A&M.
Michigan has won three games in a row over Michigan St., including last year’s 24-17 win as a three-point home ‘chalk.’
South Carolina owns a 6-5 ATS record in 11 games as a home underdog during Shane Beamer’s tenure. The Gamecocks lost a 27-25 decision at Alabama last year as 21.5-point road underdogs. They trailed 14-0 late in the second quarter before ripping off 19 unanswered points to take a 19-14 advantage midway through the third quarter.
Alabama took the lead back on a Jalen Milroe TD run with 10:42 left, and then the Tide went up 27-19 on a TD pass by Milroe with 1:54 remaining. South Carolina responded with a 31-yard TD pass from LaNorris Sellers to Nyck Harbor with 43 ticks left, but the two-point conversion attempt failed.
Kansas is 7-4-1 ATS in 12 games as a home underdog on Lance Leipold’s watch. The Jayhawks went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games of 2024, but they still missed the postseason with a 5-7 record both SU and ATS. That’s because KU went 1-5 SU in six one-possession games.
Kansas St. handed KU one of those in a 29-27 non-covering win as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Wildcats have won 16 consecutive games over the Jayhawks in this rivalry.
The home team has dominated the LSU-Texas A&M rivalry with eight straight wins, including the Aggies’ 38-23 victory as 1.5-point home favorite last season.
LSU is 11-5-1 ATS in 17 games as a home favorite during Brian Kelly’s tenure.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Before we see any line moves, I want to be clear about a couple of November games I like. Give me Florida -2.5 vs. Tennessee for two units and Auburn +7.5 vs. Alabama for one unit.
-Why do I like the Gators laying the short number to the Vols? Well, the line indicates that the oddsmakers at DraftKings have Tennessee with a better power ranking than UF on a neutral field. I completely disagree with that notion. UF is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in this rivalry since 2005. The Vols haven’t won at The Swamp since 2003, and their last win in Gainesville without Casey Clausen under center came in 1971.
-Clausen was UT’s starting QB in wins at Florida in both 2001 and 2003.
–My all-sports handicapping record at VegasInsider since the start of 2025 is 201-144 (58%) for 40.42 units of profit. In other words, if you bet $100 on every one of my plays this year, you’d be ahead $4,042.
-If you want to listen to my latest podcast with Jay Greeson for Southeastern 16, you can do so at this link. Jay and I talked about these Games of the Year numbers and previewed the 2025 Georgia Bulldogs.