Marshall: Week 5 CFB Technical Edges

Marshall: Week 5 CFB Technical Edges
Bruce Marshall, formerly of The Gold Sheet, has been providing content and picks in the sports betting industry for decades. You can find his work weekly here at MajorWager, and you can find more of his picks and analysis at both VegasInsider and SportsLine.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at WESTERN KENTUCKY (Thursday, September 28)… Tops have now won last four meetings outright, with big spread covers by 27 and 18, respectively, the past two years. WKU also 7-2 vs. spread last nine as host vs. FBS-level foes. Tech edge-Western Kentucky, based on team and recent series trends.
TEMPLE at TULSA  (Thursday, September 28)… Home team has covered each of last two seasons, though Golden Hurricane won both games. Owls yet to cover in 2023 (0-3-1) after finishing fast vs. spread last season. Tulsa 0-5 as chalk vs. FBS foes last season but is off upset win at NIU. Tech edge-slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.
JACKSONVILLE STATE at SAM HOUSTON (Thursday, September 28)…Rich-Rod under 4-0 for Gamecocks in 2023. Bearkats 2-1 vs. line, also 2-1 under this season. Tech edge-Under, based on totals trends.
LOUISVILLE at NC STATE (Friday, September 29).. Home team has won and covered last two meetings. Wolfpack, however, off to slow 0-4 start vs. spread this season. Cards “under” 6-2 vs. FBS foes since mid 2022. Tech edge-slight to ‘Ville and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
LA TECH at UTEP (Friday, September 29)… Home team has covered last two and won last three meetings outright. Sonny Cumbie was 0-7 vs. spread as visitor as Bulldog coach until late cover at Nebraska last week. Tech edge-slight to UTEP, based on recent trends.
UTAH at OREGON STATE (Friday, September 29)…  Home team has covered last two and won last three meetings outright. Beavers had recently covered nine in a row before non-covers vs. Aztecs & Cougs past two weeks. Utes just 3-5 vs. spread last eight as visitor. Tech edge-Oregon State, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at BYU (Friday, September 29)… Cougs 1-7 vs. spread last eight at Provo. BYU 6-1 “over” since late 2022. Bearcats “over” 3-1 for Satterfield in 2023. Tech edge-Cincy and slight to “over,” based on “totals” and recent trends.
PENN STATE at NORTHWESTERN…  Nittany Lions now on 10-0-1 spread run since mid 2022, James Franklin also on 11-5 “over” run since early 2022. Cats did cover this game last season yet 9-19 overall vs. number since 2021 (2-1 last three, however).  Tech edge-Penn State and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
BOWLING GREEN at GEORGIA TECH…Falcs on 6-2 “over” run as visitor.  Tech no covers last five as chalk, also on 6-3 “over” run since mid 2022.  Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bowling Green, based on “totals” and team trends.
CLEMSON at SYRACUSE.. Dino Babers has covered last three and five of last six vs. Dabo. Note Cuse 13-2-1 vs. spread first six games of season since 2021. Tech edge-Syracuse, based on series and team trends.
UTAH STATE at UCONN…  Huskies covered opener at Logan last season. Jim Mora 5-2 vs. line last seven at Pratt & Whitney. Utags on 2-7 spread skid last nine away from home. Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on team trends.
PITT at VIRGINIA TECH… Panthers have won and covered last three plus 8-1 vs. line last nine against Hokies. VPI just 5-11 vs. line since Brent Pry arrived in 2022. Tech edge-Pitt, based on series trends.
TROY at GEORGIA STATE…  Trojans still looking for their first spread cover of 2023 (0-4) after Jon Sumrall was 12-2 SU and 11-3 vs. spread in 2022 debut. Panthers on 9-3 spread run last 12 since early ,2022 after win at Coastal.  Tech edge-slight to Georgia State, based on recent trends.
INDIANA at MARYLAND…  Last two years identical 38-35 wins for Terps. Hoosiers 2-2 SU in 2023 but are 3-1 vs. spread.  Maryland just 3-5 vs. spread last eights chalk but has covered laying points last two vs. Virginia & Mich State. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, based on recent trends.
BAYLOR at UCF… First home Big 12 game for Knights. Bears 5-2 vs. spread last six as dog. Gus Malzahn on 7-3 over run. Tech edge-Baylor and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE… Revenge for Vols after being stunned at Williams-Brice last November.  UT only 2-2 vs. spread in 2023 after 10-3 mark vs. line a year ago. Gamecocks 4-1 vs. points last five as visitor.  Last four meetings “over” as well.  Tech edge-slight to South Carolina and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
FLORIDA at KENTUCKY… Cats have won and covered last two and 5-1 vs. spread last six in series, turnaround from long Gators domination.  Billy Napier on 6-3 reg season spread run since mid 2022.  UK on 14-3 “under” run since last season. Tech edge-“Under” and Kentucky, based on “totals” and series trends.
VIRGINIA at BOSTON COLLEGE..Cavs 2-4 vs. spread away for Tony Elliott since last season.  Eagles on 7-0-1 “over” run since late 2022.  Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
NOTRE DAME at DUKE… Blue Devils 12-5 vs. line for Mike Elko since last season. Elko also 7-1 vs. spread as dog with Duke. Irish 7-2 vs. spread away from South Bend since 2022. Tech edge-slight to Duke, based on team trends.
COASTAL CAROLINA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN… Road team has covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Eagles 3-4-1 vs. spread since late 2022 but off of a thrashing of Ball State. Tech edge-slight to Coastal Carolina, based on series trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at JAMES MADISON… Jags 4-1 last five as dog. Dukes 3-6 vs. spread since mid 2022, 1-3 vs. line last four at Harrisonburg..  Tech edge-slight to South Alabama, based on team trends.
OLD DOMINION at MARSHALL… Visiting team has covered last four meetings. Monarchs 4-2 vs. spread last six away. Herd 3-4 last six vs, spread at Huntington, 18-7 under run since early 2021. Tech edge-Under and slight to ODU, based on team and “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at AKRON… Zips covered this game last season though Bulls have won outright last five in series. Joe Moorhead on 8-3-1 spread run last 11 vs FBS foes for Zips. Buffalo 1-3 SU in 2023, and 8-2 “over” since mid 2022. Tech edge-slight to Akron and over, based on recent and totals trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MCHIGAN ...Underdog side has covered in 13 straight Eagles games. EMU 20-1-1 last 22 as MAC road dog, also under last three this season. Jim McElwain 3-8 vs. line last 11 since mid 2022. Tech edge-Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at KENT STATE… Home team has covered last two meetings. RedHawks 11-5 under vs. FBS foes since last season, Golden Flashes 8-5 undersince mid 2022. Tech edge-slight to under, based on totals trends.
BALL STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN… Road team has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Cards under last seven MAC games, Broncos under last six MAC games.  Tech edge-Under, based on totals trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at MINNESOTA… Cajuns 3-5 vs. spread away post-Napier (since 2022). Gophers 0-4 vs. line in 2023, also on 10-4-1 under run since early 2022. Tech edge-slight to ULL and under, based on team and “totals” trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at UMASS… Minutemen covered this one in close loss at Jonesboro last season. Butch Jones 1-6 vs. spread with Ark State last seven vs. FBS foes. UMass 4-3 vs. line since late 2022.  Tech edge-slight to UMass, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN at NEBRASKA…Jim Harbaugh 9-4 vs. spread last 13 away from Ann Arbor but Wolverines are 0-4 vs. line this season. Michigan also under 13-5-1 under since late 2021 (4-0 under this season). Huskers 10-3 under since early 2022 (3-1 “under” for Matt Rhule). Tech edge-Under and Michigan, based on totals and team trends.
NEW MEXICO at WYOMNG… Lobos have won 2 of last 3 and covered 3 of last 4 meetings. UNM got win at UMass last week but still 6-21-1 vs. spread since 2021. Craig Bohl 5-1-1 vs. line last seven at Laramie vs. FBS -level foes.  Wyo under 8-2 since mid 2022.  Tech edge-Under and slight to Wyo, based on totals and team trends.
USC at COLORADO… Buffs have never beaten Trojans, now 16-0 SU all-time in series. Though SC just 5-4 vs. spread last nine meetings. Trojans 11-1 “over” since early 2022. Tech edge-“Over” and USC, based on “totals” and series trends.
 HAWAII at UNLV… Bows 11-4-1 vs. spread last 16 since early 2022, though just 2-2-1 thus far in 2023 vs. line. Rebs 3-0 vs. line vs. FBS foes for Barry Odom. Tech edge-slight to UNLV, based on recent trends.
ARIZONA STATE at CAL…. Sun Devils 1-3 vs. line for Kenny Dillingham, Golden Bears 5-1 vs. spread last six at Berkeley vs. FBS-level foes. ASU also under 3-1 for Dillingham. Tech edge-Cal and slight to under, based on recent and totals trends.
OREGON at STANFORD…  Cardinal did beat Ducks as recently as 2021 in Palo Alto, but have dropped 3 of last 4 in series SU and vs. line.  Cardinal 4-12 vs. spread since last season (2-2 for Troy Taylor). Ducks 12-5 vs. line for Dan Lanning since 2022. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.   Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON at ARIZONA…  Cats have covered last two meetings. Huskies on 7-1 spread uptick since late 2022, though Cats have covered three of first four this season. UA also 7-1 under since late 202.  Tech edge-slight to under, based on “totals” trends.
NEVADA at FRESNO STATE…   Pack 4-10 vs. spread since early 2022, and 14-game SU losing streak is longest in country.  Fresno 10-3 vs. line since mid 2022 for Jeff Tedford, whose 13-game SU win streak is second in country (behind only Georgia). Tech edge-Fresno, based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at NAVY…Bulls under 3-1 for Alex Golesh (though flew well over last week vs. Rice) after over 9-3 a year ago. Mids no covers last four as chalk. Tech edge-slight to under, based on totals trends.
ILLINOIS at PURDUE… Boilermakers have won last three meetings, with home side covering in each. Bret Bielema 0-4 vs. line in 2023 after 14-9-1 spread mark first two seasons with Illini. Bielema under 18-8-2 with Illini. Ryan Walters, over from Illinois staff, 1-3 SU and vs. line with Purdue after Wiscy loss. Riveters 6-12 vs. line since last season. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at TOLEDO… Road team has won and covered last four meetings. Huskies 5-3 vs. spread on MAC trail past two seasons. Rockets only 6-11 vs. spread against FBS-level teams since last season. Tech edge-slight to Northern Illinois, based on series trends.
ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE… Nick Saban has mostly brutalized MSU, hasn’t lost to Bulldogs since 2007 and his first Tide team lost to Sly Croom. Tide has covered last five and seven of last eight against MSU. Last five in series under as well. Tech edge-Bama and under, based on team and totals trends.
IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA… This has been a pretty competitive series in recent years even though Sooners have won and covered last three meetings, all of those under as well. Cyclones had covered the five previous meetings with a couple of upset wins. ISU just 4-8-1 since mid 2022, however, and “under” 13-4 since late 2021. OU 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 vs. line in 2022. Tech edge-Under and Oklahoma, based on totals and recent trends.
HOUSTON at TEXAS TECH… These teams have been playing in recent years before Cougs joined Big 12, Red Raiders winning  decisions each of past two seasons, splitting vs. spread. UH 7-3 last ten as dog for Holgorsen, also over 13-6-1 since late 2021. TT 4-1 vs. line at home in Big 12 last season. Tech edge-Over, based on totals trends.
GEORGIA vs AUBURN…Oldest series in the South has been all Dawgs lately, won and covered last six meetings beginning with 2017 SEC title game. Georgia, however, 0-3-1 vs spread for Kirby Smart this season, also under 3-1 in 2023. Hugh Freeze did cover last four as dog at Liberty but failed last week at A&M. Tech edge-Under and slight to Georgia, based on “totals” and series trends.
BOISE STATE at MEMPHIS…  Broncos 2-6-1 vs. line last nine away after SDS game. Tigers just 3-8 vs. spread since late 2021 at Liberty Bowl/Stadium, also 13-7 over since late 2021. Tech edge-slight to over, based on totals trends.
APP STATE at UL-MONROE…Mounties 5-13-1 spread skid since late 2021, also “over” 4-1 since late 2022. Warhawks on 2-6 spread skid since late 2022, also “under” last four.  Tech edge-App State, based on team trends.
TEXAS STATE at SOUTHERN MISS.. Golden Eagles won and covered this game last season, but Bobcats now 3-1 vs. line for new HC GJ Kinne in 2023. USM has dropped last three vs. number after compiling a 14-3 spread mark from late 2021 into early ‘23. Golden Eagles also on 13-6 over run.  Tech edge-Over and slight to Texas State, based on totals and recent trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at IOWA… Spartans 3-8-2 vs. spread since early 2022 vs. FBS-level opposition.  Hawkeyes  7-3 last tn vs. line since mid 2022, also “under” 13-5 since late 2021. Tech edge-Iowa and under, based on team and “totals” trends.
LSU at OLE MISS… Historic series “over” 5-1 last six meetings. Teams have split last four vs. spread. Lane Kiffin has started 3-1 vs. line in 2023, but Rebs 1-4 vs. spread last five SEC games at Vaught-Hemingway.  Note LSU “over” last eight and 11-1 “over” since mid 2022. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to LSU, based on “totals” and team trends.
MISSOURI at VANDERBILT…  Dores 0-5 vs. line in 2023, 4-12 last 16 vs. spread, though did cover at Mizzou last season in that span.  Vandy has covered last two years in series. Tigers on 6-1 SU surge. Eli Drinkwitz also 4-2 vs. spread last six on SEC road. Tech edge-slight to Mizzou, based on recent trends.
CHARLOTTE at SMU…The one and only one conference game between these sides before SMU leaves for ACC next year. 49ers 2-2 vs. line for Biff Poggi after entering this season on 5-12-1 spread skid. Mustangs 2-0 as chalk this season after 4-4 mark in role for Rhett Lashlee in 2022. Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on team trends.
UAB at TULANE..  Blazers on 2-9 skid vs. spread against FBS-level foes, 1-2 vs. those for Trent Dilfer this season. UAB also on 7-2 over run since late 2022. Willie Fritz on 16-4 spread surge since late 2021 for Greenies. Tech edge-Tulane and slight to “over,” based on team trends.
TEXAS A&M vs ARKANSAS (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)…  Razorbacks had covered four straight in this series prior to last year’s bitter loss at Jerry Jones Stadium. Porkers now 13-7 as dog for Sam Pittman. Ags closed last season 2-4-1 last seven vs. SEC foes, while Porkers on 12-5 under run. Tech edge-slight to Arkansas and under, based on team and totals trends
KANSAS at TEXAS…   Jayhawks were in a late-season fade when whipped at Austin last November, but has been pretty tough vs. Horns previous, beating them outright as a 31-point dog in 2021, and covering the five meetings previous to last year. Texas no covers three of last four as chalk, and KU on 8-2-1 over run since mid 2022. Tech edge-Kansas and over, based on extended series and “totals” trends.
EAST CAROLINA at RICE…  Pirates 0-3 SU to begin this season, while Rice 3-1 vs. line already in 2023.  Owls 6-2 last eight vs. line at home, and Rice on 16-5 over run since mid 2021. Tech edge-Over and Rice, based on totals and recent trends.
WEST VIRGINIA at TCU…  Mounties  under 5-1 away since last season.  Sonny Dykes 11-5 vs. spread vs. FBS-level foes since taking over Horned Frogs. Tech edge-slight to TCU and under, based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at AIR FORCE… Aztecs had a lot of success vs. Falcs during the Rocky Long era and saw an 8-game SU win streak vs. Force snapped last November. SDSU 8-5 as dog since 2021 for Brady Hoke. Force 6-3 vs. spread last nine at home vs. FBS-level foes. Tech edge-slight to San Diego State, based on extended trends.