Marshall: Week 14 Technical Edges

Marshall: Week 14 Technical Edges
NEW MEXICO STATE at LIBERTY (Conference USA title; Friday, December 1)… Ags closed this season winning last eight and covering last ten games.; last spread L was Sept. 9 at Liberty in 33-17 loss. NMSU 17-3 vs. line since mid 2022 for Jerry Kill, also 9-2 under last 11 in 2023. Flames 8-4 vs. spread this season in Jamey Chadwell debut, also 5-1 over last six in 2023. Tech edge-New Mexico State and slight to under, based on team and totals trends.
OREGON vs WASHINGTON (Pac-12 title at Las Vegas; Friday, December 1)… Huskies have won a pair of 3-point decisions vs Ducks the past two seasons, including 37-34 upset in 2022 at Eugene as a 12-point dog. U-Dub on 19-game SU win streak since mid 2022. Huskies 2-0 as dog for Kalen DeBoer since last year (both as dog in 2022). Though Huskies just 2-5-1 last eight in 2023 (chalk each time). Oregon 9-2-1 vs spread this season including 4-0-1 away from home (push came at Seattle in 33-30 loss). Last two years DeBoer vs Dan Lanning matchups both over as well. Tech edge-Washington and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE vs TEXAS (Big 12 title at Arlington, Tx; Saturday, December 2)… Teams didn’t meet this season; a year ago, Mike Gundy’s Cowboys won outright 41-34 at Stillwater as a 6.5 dog. Gundy also covered his last four this season as a dog.  OSU 6-2 vs spread last eight and 5-2 over last seven in 2023. Horns just 3-4 vs spread overall since midseason. and 4-6 vs line since mid 2022 away from Austin (3-3 this season). Tech edge-Oklahoma State and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
MIAMI-OHIO vs TOLEDO (MAC title at Detroit; Saturday, December 2)… Rematch of October 21 at Yager Stadium when visiting Rockets won 21-17 as 2-point favorite. That game landed under as did 6 of last 8 RedHawks games this season. Chuck Martin 9-2 last 11 against number this season, though only 2-2 as dog. Toledo has won 11 in a row outright since narrow opening loss at Illinois and has covered 4 of last 5 in 2023, after subpar spread results prior, specially as chalk, dropping previous five laying points this season, and six of last seven as favorite a year ago. Tech edge-Miami Ohio and slight to under, based on team and totals trends.
BOISE STATE at UNLV (Mountain West title; Saturday, December 2)… Teams didn’t meet this season. Rebels were a revelation in Barry Odom debut, 9-3 SU and 10-2 vs spread, also 5-0 as dog, though the two Ls vs number did come at Allegiant Stadium (UNLV 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs line as host). Rebs 7-3 over last ten this season. Broncos 2-0 SU and vs spread post-Andy Avalos, Broncos were 1-4-1 vs. spread in their six games previous to concluding campaign with three straight wins and covers. Boise just 1-4-1 vs number away from blue carpet this season, and Broncos also 7-3 over last ten in 2023.  Tech edge-UNLV and over, based on team and totals trends.
GEORGIA vs ALABAMA (SEC title at Atlanta; Saturday, December 2)… Teams haven’t met since national title game in 2021, when Bulldogs won 33-18; they had met the previous month in 2021 SEC title game, in a similar scenario to this week, with Tide a 41-24 winner. Bama has won last ten outright this season since Texas loss, and 7-2 vs spread last nine (including non-cover last week vs Auburn).  Nick Saban also over last five and over 7-1 last eight this season, plus please note Tide hasn’t been an underdog since splitting those two vs. Georgia at end of 2021 campaign. Kirby Smart SU win streak now at 27, last loss vs. Tide in 2021 SEC title game. Bulldogs just 2-4 vs points away from Athens this season and just 4-7-1 vs. line overall in 2023. Tech edge-Bama and over, based on team and totals trends.
SMU at TULANE (American title; Saturday, December 2)… Teams didn’t meet this season, last matchup 11-17-21 when Wave (-3.5) rolled 59-24 at New Orleans. Mustangs won last eight outright in 2023, also 5-2 vs spread last seven this season. Note, however, SMU 0-2 as dog in 2023 and 1-6 in role since last season for Rhett Lashlee. Ponies also 5-1 over last six thru November. won last ten outright this term but was 1-6 vs. line in seven-game stretch before wins and covers in last two of reg season. Wave also enters this week on 10-1 under run. Tech edge-slight to Tulane and under, based on team and totals trends.
APPALACHIAN STATE at TROY (Sun Belt title; Saturday, December 2)… Teams haven’t met since 9-17-22, when Mounties won 32-28 on a game-ending Hail Mary at Boone.  Since then, Trojans are 21-2 SU, and Troy finished this season on 9-game SU win streak, also 7-1 last eight vs. spread in 2023.  Trojans 17-7 vs line since early 2022 for Jon Sumrall. Troy also 7-3 under last ten this season (though was under seven straight before over last three). App covered last four and won last five outright this season, though was on 0-4-1 spread run at midseason. Mounties 6-2 under last eight in 2023.  Tech edge-Troy and under, based on team and totals trends.
MICHIGAN vs IOWA (Big Ten title; Saturday, December 1 at Indianapolis)… Teams didn’t meet this season, last matchup 10-1-22 when Wolverines (-10.5) won and covered 27-14 at Iowa City. Total was 42 so it landed barely under as well.  Michigan also won 2021 Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil over Hawkeyes by big 42-3 count, so Big Blue has also covered last two meetings as well.  Wolverines 11-3-1 vs. line in Big Ten play since early 2022, and 17-5-2 vs. points in Big Ten play since late 2021, also on 24-game SU win streak in Big Ten. Michigan enters December on 7-1 over run as well. Iowa 6-5-12 vs. spread for Kirk Ferentz in 2023, and Ferentz 4-3 as dog since last season. Hawkeyes also under seven straight and 14-3 under since late 2022. Tech edge-Michigan and slight to under, based on team and totals trends.
LOUISVILLE vs FLORIDA STATE (ACC title; Saturday, December 2 at Charlotte) … Teams didn’t meet this season, last matchup 9-16-22 when Noles (+2.5) won 35-31 at ‘Ville.  Note Jordan Travis got injured in game and Tate Rodemaker tossed a pair of TD passes in relief for FSU. Noles have won last 18 SU since mid 2022, though only 5-5 vs points last ten in 2023. Note Cards were 1-0 as dog this term (vs Notre Dame) but just 1-4 vs line away from home this season, and only 6-6 overall vs spread in 2023. ‘Vlle also over last three in 2023. Tech edge-slight to over, based on totals trends.