Marshall: Week 12 Technical Edges

Marshall: Week 12 Technical Edges
BUFFALO at MIAMI-OHIO (Wednesday, November 15)… Home team has covered last six meetings. Bulls under six straight in 2023, RedHawks on 8-1 spread run this season. Tech edge-Miami-Ohio and under, based on team and totals trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OHIO (Wednesday, November 8)… Last meeting 10-9-21 when Chips won but didn’t cover in Athens (30-27 win when laying 5). CMU 1-5 vs. number last six this season, and McElwain 1-6 vs. line last seven on MAC road. Bobcats 10-4 under since late 2022. Tech edge-Ohio and under, based on team and totals trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at PITTSBURGH (Thursday, November 15)…Old rivals haven’t met since 2020.  Eagles had won five in a row SU this term before VPI loss. Panthers enduring torturous 2023, 1-8 SU and 2-7 vs. spread last nine this season. Tech edge-Boston College, based on recent trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at UTSA (Friday, November 17)… Bulls over 5-2 last seven this season, also covered three of last four on road. Roadrunners have won last six SU this season, 4-1-1 vs. line in those, though just 3-7 vs. points since early 2022 at Alamodome. Also 4-1 under last five in 2023.  Tech edge-slight to South Florida and under, based on team and totals trends.
COLORADO at WASHINGTON STATE (Thursday, November 17)… Bowl-eligibility elimination game!  As has been case all season, throwing pout pre-2023 for Buffs, though they have dropped 6 of last 7 SU this season even as they have covered three in a row, and 4-1-1 vs. spread last six this term. Cougs have dropped last six outright and 1-5 vs. line in those games. Tech edge-slight to Colorado, based on recent trends.
APPALACHIAN STATE at JAMES MADISON … Mounties lost this matchup outright (32-28) as a 6-point chalk in Boone last September. App has won and covered last two in thumping fashion in 2023 after 0-4-1 spread run. Undefeated (SU) Dukes 6-1 vs. spread last seven this campaign. Tech edge-slight to James Madison, based on recent trends.
COASTAL CAROLINA at ARMY … Chants have won and covered last four this season, also 3-1 vs. spread away for Tim Beck in 2023. Coastal also 8-2 under in 2023. Army 3-2 as dog this season, 6-2 last eight getting points since mid 2022. West Point also under last three at Michie Stadium. Tech edge-Under, based on totals trends.
DUKE at VIRGINIA… Blue Devils won and covered this Elko vs Elliott matchup last season 38-17. All after Bronco Mendenhall had won and covered previous six meetings for ‘Hoos, who actually owned a 7-game cover streak in series prior to last season. Duke hurting lately however and has dropped four of last six vs spread, and Cavs have covered 6-1 last seven this season. Tech edge-slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI at WEST VIRGINIA…  Bearcats finally on the board with a Big 12 win last week but had dropped seven in a row SU prior. Cincy though has back-to-back covers since first two games in September. Mounties had covered five of seven before running into Sooners last week, and have still covered four straight at Morgantown. WVU also now over 4-1 last five this season. Tech edge-West Virginia and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA…. Road team has covered last five meetings. Though proceed carefully with Spartans, 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 vs. line last eight this season. Hoosiers 6-1 over last seven this season. Tech edge-slight to over and Michigan State, based on totals and series trends.
GEORGIA at TENNESSEE…  Kirby Smart has smothered Josh Heupel the past two seasons and have actually buried Vols the last six seasons. Last UT series win was on the Josh Dobbs Hail Mary in 2016. Bulldogs also over 6-1 last seven this season. Vols had won and covered five of six before Mizzou debacle. Tech edge-Georgia and over, based on series and totals trends.
MICHIGAN at MARYLAND…  Note that Terps put up a fight in this game at Ann Arbor last season and covered. Wolverines 11-3-2 vs. line against Big Ten foes since and have covered last seven away from home in Big Ten. Michigan was also over five straight prior to Penn State last week. Maryland had dropped sour in a row SU and vs. line this season before squeezing out win at Nebraska last week. Tech edge-Michigan and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
LOUISVILLE at MIAMI-FLA…  Despite 9-1 SU mark this season, Cards only 5-5 vs. spread in 2023. They’re also 0-3 vs. line for Brohm away from home against ACC foes. Canes 3-2 vs. spread at Hard Rock this season, and 3-1 as dog in 2023. Tech edge-slight to Miami, based on team trends.
KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA…  Road team has covered last two meetings, while seven of last eight matchups landed on under side. Cats 1-4 vs. spread last five this season, also over 6-1 last seven, a far cry from last year’s 12-1 under mark. Gamecocks had dropped four of five SU and vs. line prior to Vandy win. Tech edge-slight to under, based on totals trends.
NC STATE at VIRGINIA TECH… Teams haven’t met since 2020 Covid season. Wolfpack again closing fast, 4-1 SU last five and 5-1 vs. spread last six this season. Also, under four straight and 6-1 last seven. Hokies however have also covered five of last six in 2023. Tech edge-slight to under, based on totals trends.
RUTGERS at PENN STATE…. James Franklin has destroyed Scarlet Knights, winning all nine since arriving at Happy Valley in 2014, and bludgeoning covers the past three seasons by 106-17 combined score against Schiano. Though Nittany Lions just 1-3 vs. line spread since their 13-0 SU & 12-0-1 spread streak ended last month.  Rutgers is 6-2-2 vs. line this season, had also been over four of five prior to Iowa grinder.  Tech edge-Penn State, based on series trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON… Rematch of ACC title game last December 3 won by Clemson in 39-10 blowout. Heels have failed to cover last three vs. FBS-level foes this season after UNC was combined 4-8 vs. spread in reg season past the halfway mark the past two years. Dabo rallying late in 2023, has won and covered last two weeks at home after dropping six of first eight vs. spread this season. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at OHIO STATE… Last meeting came in 2021 season opener when Buckeyes won 45-31 (spread push). Gophers have been brutal this season, just 3-7 vs. spread, now 6-13 vs. line since early 2022, and just 2-7 vs. spread last nine away from Minneapolis. Buckeyes on 5-1-2 spread run this season. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on recent trends.
TULANE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC… Willie Fritz not covering numbers like last season when 12-2 vs. spread. Wave still winning but not covering in 2023, 1-6 vs. spread last seven despite winning outright in eight straight. Tulane also under 8-1 last nine this season. Tom Herman debut at FAU a bit disappointing, especially at Boca Raton where Owls are 0-4-1 vs. points. Herman 2-2 as dog this season.  Tech edge-Under and slight to FAU, based on totals and team trends.
EAST CAROLINA at NAVY… Mids have won and covered last four years in series and seven straight vs. Pirates dating to 2012. ECU however has covered three straight this season, also on 6-1 under run. Navy “under” 4-1 last five this season. Tech edge-Navy and under, based on series and totals trends.
OLD DOMINION at GEORGIA SOUTHERN… Eagles won outright as short -priced +1.5 dog at Norfolk last season. Clay Helton, however, on 1-4 spread skid after Marshall loss, while GSU also 3-0-1 over last four in 2023. Monarchs have failed to cover last two this season after 4-0 spread uptick at midseason. Tech edge-slight to over, based on totals trends.
PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN… Road team has covered last five meetings. Note overs last three and 5-2 over last seven for Boilermakers. Scrappy Wildcats, however, have covered last four and 4-1 vs. spread as host vs FBS -level foes this season (counts Wrigley Field game vs. Iowa). Tech edge-slight to Northwestern, based on recent trends.
KENT STATE at BALL STATE… Cards won outright last season as seven-point road dog. Golden Flashes 0-9 SU vs. FBS-level foes this season, 0-6-1 last seven vs. spread in 2023. Ball State has covered four straight after win at NIU last Tuesday. Tech edge-Ball State, based on team trends.
RICE at CHARLOTTE… Road team was 9-0 vs. line in 49ers games this season until last week’s Charlotte home cover vs. Memphis. 49ers have won and covered last two meetings (last October it was a shock 56-23 blowout in Houston). Owls had covered three straight this season before loss at UTSA Charlotte now working on overs last three entering this week. Tech edge-Rice and slight to over, based on recent and totals trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE… Golden Eagles have now won last two and covered last three this season after losing and failing to cover previous six. Bulldogs on 1-8 spread skid after becoming Jimbo Fisher’s final A&M victim last week. Tech edge-Southern Miss, based on recent trends.
ILLINOIS at IOWA… Road team has covered last five meetings. Red Raiders have won and covered handily past two seasons. Illini has won three of last four outright this season and also over last three. Punishing Hawkeyes under five straight and 12-3 since late 2022. Tech edge-Under and Illinois, based on totals and series trends.
SYRACUSE at GEORGIA TECH… Teams haven’t met since Covid 2020 campaign when Cuse won (and that was only Orange win that season). Dino Babers had lost five straight and dropped six in a row vs. line prior to running into abysmal Pitt last week at Yankee Stadium. Jackets had won and covered three of four previous to last week’s loss at Clemson. Tech also over 12-3 since late 2022.  Tech edge-Georgia Tech and over, based on team and totals trends.
KANSAS STATE at KANSAS… Just as Bill Snyder used to do it, Chris Klieman has destroyed Jayhawks, winning and covering all four by thumping margins since taking over at Manhattan in 2019. The series SU win streak for K-State is now 14 games! Cats have now covered last five in 2023 after Baylor romp. Lance Leipold 4-1 last five as dog since late 2022 but KU only 5-5 vs. line this season.   Tech edge-Kansas State, based on series trends.
UMASS at LIBERTY… Home team has covered last three in series (all easy Flames SU wins).  Minutemen actually on 2-game S win streak, under last two after 7-1 over first eight this season.  Unbeaten Liberty also 8-2 vs. spread in 2023. Tech edge-Liberty, based on team trends.
UTAH at ARIZONA… Home team has covered last two meetings, though Cats haven’t won outright in series since 2015.  Utes have covered four of last five this season but only 3-3 SU last six in 2023.  Arizona was under 8-1 this season prior to Buffs last week. Cats have also won last four outright and had covered five straight and eight of nine prior to Colorado. Tech edge-Arizona and under, based on recent and totals trends.
OREGON at ARIZONA STATE… Sun Devils wrecked an Oregon playoff chance as recently as 2019 at Tempe. That was also the last time these teams met, under different regimes (Cristobal vs. Edwards). Sun Devils have won 2 of last 3 outright this season and 6-1 vs. spread last seven in 2023.  Ducks 7-2-1 vs. line this term.  Tech edge-slight to Arizona State, based on recent trends.
OKLAHOMA at BYU… After three straight spread Ls, Sooners finally won and covered last week vs. WVU, now 7-3 vs. line in 2023. Also 4-2 over last six this season. Cougs on 6-3 over run in 2023, while BYU has been hammered in three straight games this season. Tech edge-Oklahoma and slight to over, based on team and totals trends.
HAWAII at WYOMING… Bows have covered last two meetings and won outright in a stunner at Laramie their last visit in 2021. Timmy Chang has also won last two outright this season after dropping five of previous six (and all six vs. spread). UH under last three as well in 2023. Craig Bohl under last three and six of last nine this season, also 6-2-1 vs. line at Laramie since early 2022 vs. FBS-level foes.  Tech edge-slight to under and Wyoming, based on totals and extended trends.
UTEP at MIDDLE TENNESSEE… Blue Raiders won and covered at Sun Bowl last season. Middle has covered three of last four in 2023 including last two at Murfreesboro. Miners have also covered three of last four and are 7-3 under this campaign. Tech edge-slight to under and MTSU, based on totals and team trends.
LA TECH at JACKSONVILLE STATE… No wins or covers last five this season for La Tech, also 1-7 SU last eight in 2023. Rich-Rod 7-2-1 vs. line for Gamecocks in their FBS debut.  Tech edge-Jacksonville State, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE… Beavers have covered last three meetings in close games decided by 3, 3, and 6 points. Last four meetings “under” as well.  OSU 18-0 SU, 17-1 vs. line as host (Corvallis and Portland) since 2021, lone non-cover as host was earlier this season vs. Aztecs. Huskies still unbeaten but 1-4-1 vs. spread last six this season. Tech edge-Oregon State and slight to under, based on team and totals trends.
NEW MEXICO at FRESNO STATE… Bulldogs have hammered Lobos past two seasons to the tune of 75-16 total score to make up for loss to UNM in Las Vegas of all places at the end of the 2020 Covid season. Lobos have now dropped 4 of last 5 SU and vs. spread, also had a six-game over streak snapped (barely so) in loss at Boise. Fresno has cooled off vs. spread, just 1-5 last six vs. line after Jeff Tedford was 10-2 vs. spread preceding 12 vs. FBS-level teams. Tech edge-slight to Fresno State and over, based on series and totals trends.
UCLA at USC … Last five over in series, Trojans on 17-2 over run since mid 2022 after Ducks result fell under last week. Chip Kelly 2-3 SU and vs. spread in series with a couple of galling losses at Rose Bowl in 2020 and 2022. UCLA no covers last three or four of last five this season, SC had dropped seven in a row vs. spread prior to cover vs. Webfoots. Tech edge-Over, based on totals trends.
NEVADA at COLORADO STATE… Jay Norvell beat his former employer Wolf Pack last season in Reno.  CSU however only 1-4 vs. spread in Fort Collins this season, Rams also under last four in 2023. Nevada had covered five of six this term before dropping last two SU and vs. line, Pack also 6-3 under last nine this campaign. Tech edge-Under, based on totals trends.
CAL at STANFORD… Golden Bears have won three of last four and covered each of those four in Big Game. Cal however only 1-6-1 last eight vs. spread this season, though did snap 4-game SU losing streak last week vs. WSU. Bears also over last five this season. Cardinal 3-2 vs. line away from Palo Alto this term, also over 3-2 last five.  Tech edge-Cal and over, based on series and totals trends.
GEORGIA STATE at LSU... Panthers have been thumped last three games in 2023. Meanwhile, Tigers have won and covered four of last five this season, also over all ten in 2023 and 17-1 over since mid 2022! Tech edge-Over and LSU, based on totals and team trends.
ULM at OLE MISS… Hoosiers won and covered a thriller in their opener last season (Illini had opened the week before). Indiana has covered two straight after losing four in a row vs. spread, while Hoosiers also were over five straight before Wiscy last week. Bret Bielema 2-8 vs. spread since late 2022. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, based on team trends.
TROY at UL MONROE… Rebs won and covered all three non-SEC games early in season (laying double digits in each), also 4-1-1 vs. spread at Vaught-Hemingway in 2023.  Warhawks have lost last eight outright this season, also 5-2 over last seven in 2023. Tech edge-Ole Miss and over, based on team and totals trends.
NORTH TEXAS at TULSA… Both turned around recent spread fortunes last week. Mean Green was 4-0-1 vs. line in the five preceding the loss to SMU last Friday. Golden Hurricane was 0-3-1 vs. points last four before cover vs. Tulane.  Tulsa SU losing streak now at five this season. Tech edge-slight to North Texas, based on recent trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at TROY… Trojans won and covered this game 23-17 on road last season. Ragin’ Cajuns have lost last two and thee of last four (SU and vs. spread) the past month. ULL also under 4-1 last five in 2023. Troy has covered last six and won last seven this season, and had been under seven straight before ULM win. Trojans now 14-3 vs. number last 17 Sun Belt games. Tech edge-Troy and under, based on team and totals trends.
SMU at MEMPHIS… Last three meetings each decided by three points (SMU 2-1), and 2019 game was decided by just six points. Mustangs have now won last six SU and 4-1 vs. spread last five this season, while Tigers over last four and 7-1 last eight in 2023. Memphis surprising 0-4-1 vs. spread at Liberty Bowl this season. Tech edge-Over and slight to Memphis, based on totals and series trends.
TEMPLE at UAB… Owls have covered last two this season after five straight spread Ls previous, Temple also on 5-2 over run. Blazers 6-3 over vs. FBS-level foes this season. Tech edge-Over, based on totals trends.
TEXAS at IOWA STATE… Sarkisian has failed to cover last two years in this series, and was routed 30-7 at Ames in 2021, and Cyclones have now covered last three meetings. Horns only 1-4 vs. spread last five in 2023, while ISU has now won and covered four of last five this season. Tech edge-Iowa State, based on series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at HOUSTON… Cowboys had won and covered five in a row this season before getting flattened at UCF last week. Cougs on four straight unders after Cincy loss. Tech edge-Oklahoma State and under, based on recent and totals trends.
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON… Former American refugees, Bearcats still seeking first Big 12 win. Last meeting was 2021 American title game won by Cincy 35-20. Bearcats had dropped six straight vs. line before narrow cover vs. UCF. Cougs have covered last three as host. Tech edge-Houston, based on recent trends.
FIU at ARKANSAS… Despite wipeout loss at MTSU last week, Golden Panthers are 3-2 vs. line away this season. Porkers no covers last four as chalk in 2023 and in midst of 1-7 SU tailspin. Tech edge-slight to FIU, based on recent trends.
BAYLOR at TCU… This was a narrow escape at Waco last season for Frogs, in fact last two meetings  decided by combined three points, last five meetings all decided by single digits (TCU 4-1 SU in those).  Bears fading fast, however, losing and failing to cover three of last four this season. Yet Baylor is 2-1 SU and vs. line away, even with K-State debacle last week. Frogs had dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line prior to Texas last week, also now under 6-3 last nine this season.  Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.
FLORIDA at MISSOURI… Tigers have covered this matchup the last two seasons and won outright at Columbia in 2021. Gators have lost and failed to cover last three this season, also over last six in 2023. Meanwhile, Mizzou has covered four straight and seven of last eight, also under last three following five overs previous. Tech edge-Missouri and slight to over, based on recent and “totals” trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at AUBURN… Jerry Kill’s Ags have won last six and covered last eight this season. NMSU on 15-3 spread uptick since mid 2022, and Ags 7-2 under last nine this campaign.  Hugh Freeze has won and covered last three this season and now under last four in 2023.  Tech edge-Under and slight to NMSU, based on totals and team trends.
UCF at TEXAS TECH… Gus Malzahn has won last two outright in November after losing five in a row, and is 2-1 as a dog this season.  Knights also 3-1 under last four in 2023. Red Raiders have won and covered last two in 2023, also 6-3 under last nine this season. Tech edge-slight to under, based on totals trends.
SAM HOUSTON at WESTERN KENTUCKY… Bearkats have now won last two SU in 2023, now 3-2 vs. spread away in FBS debut season, though had dropped four straight vs. line prior to win at Ruston. SHSU also on 4-0 over run after win at La Tech. Tops no covers last four, the longest spread skid for Tyson Helton at WKU since start of 2020 Covid season. Tech edge-slight to over and Sam Houston, based on totals and recent trends.
WAKE FOREST at NOTRE DAME… Sam Hartman Game! Deacs have lost 6 of last 7 outright this season, also on 6-2 under run. Irish 3-1-1 vs. spread at South Bend this season, also over last three in 2023.  Marcus Freeman 2-1 as double-digit chalk in 2023, and Irish 7-3-1 vs. spread since late 2022. Tech edge-Notre Dame, based on team trends.
UNLV at AIR FORCE…Rebels got smoked by Force last year 42-7, but Barry Odom’s new UNLV is 9-1 vs. spread and 5-0 vs. points away. Rebs also 4-0 as dog this season, and under 3-1 last four after four straight over results into midseason. The Falcs have mysteriously lost outright the past two weeks as near 3-TD chalk on each occasion, also under last four in 2023. Tech edge-UNLV and slight to under, based on recent and totals trends.
TEXAS STATE at ARKANSAS STATE… Last three meetings decided by seven points total, Bobcats a SU winner in each (2-1 vs. line). GJ Kinne and TSU have cooled a bit, however, just 1-4 vs. line last five this season, also 4-0 under in those five. Butch Jones and ASU have covered last three in 2023, also on 4-1 under run. Tech edge-Under, based on totals trends.
MARSHALL at SOUTH ALABAMA… Herd had lost and failed to cover five straight prior to last week’s win over Ga Southern. Marshall no covers last four on road this season. Meanwhile no covers last three for Jags, also under those three games. Tech edge-slight to under and South Alabama, based on totals and recent trends.
BOISE STATE at UTAH STATE … Broncos have covered last six and won last seven in series. Though Andy Avalos now out at Boise, this season he was 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 vs. line. Broncos 0-4-1 vs. spread away from blue carpet this season, and had been 6-1 over in the seven previous to Lobos last Saturday. Utags have won last three and covered four of last five this term, and 3-0 vs. line in MW play at Logan this season. Utags also over 6-2 last eight in 2023. Tech edge-slight to over, based on totals trends.
NEBRASKA at WISCONSIN… Badgers have won last eight in series since losing to Cornhuskers in Nebraska’s first Big Ten season of 2012. Huskers, however, have covered last two meetings. NU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven this season. Wiscy 0-4-1 as Madison chalk this season, as Luke Fickell spread mark now just 6-16-1 since last 2021 at Cincy. Badgers on 7-2 under run after Northwestern game last week.  Tech edge-Under and slight to Nebraska, based on totals and team trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE… Aztecs have won last two meetings but Spartans have covered 2 of last 3 matchups. Aztecs on 1-7 SU skid, worst stretch since ill-fated Chuck Long debacle of 2008, and 2-3 last five vs. spread. Though 3-1 vs. line away this season, and under last three in 2023. Red-hot Spartans have won last four and covered last five this season. Tech edge-San Jose State, based on recent trends.