For those that grabbed a ticket on Diego Pavia to win the Heisman Trophy back in August or even as recently as early November, you might be in business.
As of Tuesday morning, FanDuel had Vanderbilt’s star senior quarterback as the +160 co-favorite along with Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza to win the coveted award.
The next-shortest odds belonged to Ohio St. QB Julian Sayin (+195) and Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love (45/1). Ohio St. WR Jeremiah Smith (200/1), Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez (250/1), Georgia QB Gunner Stockon (300/1) and Alabama QB Ty Simpson (300/1) were also on the board as enormous longshots.
Pavia has led Vandy to its best season in program history. The Commodores, who are 10-2 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread, have won three games in a row both SU and ATS after blasting Tennessee by a 45-24 count in Knoxville as two-point road underdogs this past Saturday.
Pavia has completed 242-of-340 passes (71.2%) for 3,192 passing yards with a 27/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He leads the SEC in completion percentage, TD passes, passing yards per attempt (9.4), total yards (4,018), total plays (492), total yards per play (8.2), passing efficiency rating (171.5) and TDs responsible for (36).
Despite taking 18 sacks, Pavia still has 826 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 5.4 yards-per-carry average. He had a season-high 165 rushing yards on 20 attempts against the Volunteers, who finished the regular season with an 8-4 SU record and a 4-7-1 ATS mark.
Mendoza and Sayin will bring their unbeaten teams to Indianapolis to face each other Saturday in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium. You definitely get a boost in the eyes of Heisman voters when you play QB for an undefeated team, but isn’t the more relevant question whether or not Sayin and/or Mendoza would have Vandy with a 10-2 record?
I say it is. Also, I say that Pavia is the nation’s only player who could have the Commodores at 10-2.
Mendoza has connected on 211-of-293 throws (72.0%) for 2,758 yards with a 32/5 TD-INT ratio. He has 243 rushing yards and six TDs while averaging 3.8 YPC.
As for Sayin, he has completed 258-of-327 passes (78.9%) for 3,065 yards with a 30/5 TD-INT ratio. He’s a pure drop-back passer, though, who has merely 27 rushing yards and zero TDs.
I’m not trying to downplay the spectacular seasons that Mendoza and Sayin have enjoyed. Both players have been terrific, but it’s undeniable that both QBs are surrounded by much more talent than Pavia.
Whatever the case, if I had a vote for the Heisman, it would go to Pavia regardless of what happens in Indy this weekend.