College football finally arrives for the 2024 campaign on Saturday. We’ve got four standalone games on the slate involving FBS teams, so let’s take a deep look at two of them and a brief gander at the other two that are FBS vs. FCS contests.
**FSU vs. Georgia Tech**
-This game is being played in Dublin, Ireland, at Aviva Stadium, which has a 51,700 capacity. Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for noon Eastern.
-The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Florida St. as a 13.5-point favorite way back on May 26. The total was 56 points when it was released on June 25. The Seminoles were favored by 13 points on Aug. 5 before the number moved to 12. One day later, it dipped to 11.5. Then on Aug. 13, it moved to 11 before dropping to 10.5 a week later. FSU went to -10 Wednesday morning before the number quickly went back to -10.5 only 25 minutes later. As of early Friday afternoon, most spots remained at -10.5 with the total at 55.5 points. The Yellow Jackets were +350 on the money line.
-As of early Friday afternoon, most shops had FSU as a 6.5-point favorite for first-half wagers. The total was 27.5 points. Ga. Tech was anywhere from +215 to +240 (South Point) on the money line in the first half. For first-quarter bets, the Seminoles were either -3 (at a -115 price) or -3.5 with a total of 12.5 or 13 points.
-FSU finished 13-1 straight up and 8-6 against the spread in 2023, enjoying a breakout campaign in the fourth year of Mike Norvell’s tenure. The ‘Noles went unbeaten in the regular season, but they lost star quarterback Jordan Travis to a broken leg in the first half of a 58-13 home win over Northern Alabama.
-Without Travis, FSU trailed 12-0 at Florida with five minutes left in the first half. After the ‘Noles cut the deficit to 12-7, the Gators missed a 52-yard field goal on the final play before halftime after a penalty made the FGA longer. In the second half, FSU’s defense shut UF down and eventually won a 24-15 decision.
-With Alabama beating Georgia the next week at the SEC Championship Game, FSU needed to collect a few style points that night vs. Louisville at the ACC Championship Game. That didn’t happen, though. The Seminoles’ offense struggled mightily to generate merely 12 first downs and 216 yards of total offense. Lawrance Toafili produced a good chunk of that yardage on a 73-yard run that set up his team’s lone TD. FSU beat the Cardinals, 16-6, but it was left out of the College Football Playoff despite its unbeaten record.
-With nearly all of its starters sitting out due to injuries or a desire to remain healthy for the 2024 NFL Draft, FSU got absolutely destroyed 63-3 by Georgia at the Orange Bowl.
-Norvell’s team returns five starters on offense and five on defense. FSU lost 36 lettermen and returns 51. The ‘Noles lost six of their top nine tacklers, their star RB (Trey Benson), their star QB (Travis), their top three pass catchers and 10 overall players who were selected in the NFL Draft.
-Travis’s replacement is D.J. Uiagalelei, who started 28 games at Clemson in his first three seasons from 2020-22. He has 40 career starts after adding 12 more for Oregon St. last year. Uiagalelei had a 22/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Tigers in 2022, and he had a 21/7 TD-INT ratio for the Beavers last season. ‘DJU’ has completed 59.1 percent of his career throws for 8,319 yards with a 57/24 TD-INT ratio. He also has 1,132 career rushing yards, 21 TDs and a 3.3 yards-per-carry average.
-Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have FSU #33 at QB, #19 at RB, #23 at WR, #5 on the offensive line, #15 on the d-line, #40 at LB, #7 in the secondary and #13 on special teams.
-FSU has won 12 consecutive ACC games while cashing tickets at an 8-4 ATS clip.
-FSU sophomore WR Hykeem Williams, a potential starter, is ‘out’ vs. Ga. Tech with a minor injury. Williams had five catches for 80 yards and one TD as a true freshman in 2023.
-These ACC adversaries have played each other seven times since 2008, with Ga. Tech going 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. The Seminoles won the last encounter in 2022, though, capturing a 41-16 win as 20-point home ‘chalk.’
-Ga. Tech finished last season 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS, beating Central Florida 30-17 as a five-point underdog at the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa. The Knights raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, only to get outscored 30-3 the rest of the way. RB Jamal Haynes had 128 rushing yards on 18 attempts, while QB Haynes King ran for 89 yards and one TD on 12 attempts. King also had one TD pass.
-Ga. Tech has been a double-digit underdog nine times since Brent Key took over as HC, producing a 6-3 ATS record with four outright wins. Key has led the Yellow Jackets to a 12-3 ATS record with nine outright victories in 15 games as underdogs.
-Ga. Tech was -162 in net yards in 2023 and +4 in turnover margin.
-Ga. Tech brings back eight starters on offense and five on defense. Last year’s offense led by King averaged 31.1 points per game, while the defense gave up an average of 29.5 PPG.
-In his first season on The Flats after transferring from Texas A&M, King connected on 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,842 yards with a 27/16 TD-INT ratio. He had 737 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.1 YPC average. He did, however, lead the ACC in interceptions.
-Haynes ran for a team-best 1,059 yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC.
-In Steele’s National Unit Rankings, the Yellow Jackets are #11 at QB, #43 at RB, #54 at WR, #10 on the o-line, #43 in the secondary and #52 on special teams. They have a season win total of 4.5 at FanDuel (‘over’ -142, ‘under’ +116).
-According to weather.com, the forecast in Dublin is calling for partly cloudy skies with a low temperature of around 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Winds of 10-20 miles per hour could play a factor, though.
PREDICTION: I got some Ga. Tech at +14 early in the summer, but I still lean to the Yellow Jackets at +10.5. However, as the numbers are now, I prefer ‘over’ 55.5 points. I’m also making a small play on King’s prop to go ‘over’ 44.5 rushing yards. He had at least 46 rushing yards in eight of 13 games last year, including six of the Yellow Jackets’ last eight contests.
**SMU at Nevada**
-As of early Friday afternoon, most books had SMU installed as a 26-point road favorite with a total of 55.5. The Wolf Pack were +1500 on the money line at the Westgate SuperBook. For first-half bets, the Mustangs were -14.5 with a total of 30 points. Nevada was +700 on the money line in the first half. SMU is -7 in the first quarter with a total of 12.5 or 13 points.
-Circa opened SMU at -21 back on June 1. The line moved to -23 on June 11, and then it ballooned up to -26 on June 15. The number made it to -27 on Aug. 13, but then it was reduced to 24.5 on Aug. 20. There were 24.5’s available all over the board for about 48 hours, but SMU was adjusted back to -26 this (Friday) morning.
-SMU is off a stellar season in which it went 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS, winning the AAC Championship Game by capturing a 26-14 win at Tulane as a three-point underdog. The Mustangs saw their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Boston College as 12.5-point favorites at the Fenway Bowl.
-Steele’s National Unit Rankings have SMU #9 at QB, #15 at RB, #8 at WR, #18 on the o-line, #25 on the d-line, #10 at LB and #19 in the secondary. The Mustangs were +2,102 in net yardage last year and +3 in turnover margin.
-Rhett Lashlee’s team returns eight starters from an offense that produced points at a 38.7 PPG clip. The Mustangs have seven starters back from a defense that allowed an average of 17.8 PPG.
-Junior QB Preston Stone completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,197 yards with a 28/6 TD-INT ratio in 2023. He added 198 rushing yards (300 before subtracting sack yardage) and four TDs with a 3.2 YPC average. Stone has his top seven pass catchers returning, including TE RJ Maryland, who had 34 receptions for 518 yards and seven TDs last season. Steele’s magazine has Maryland as a preseason third-team All-ACC choice.
-SMU has its top seven tacklers back as well. LB Kobe Wilson was a second-team All-AAC selection in 2023 when he recorded 80 tackles, four QB hurries, three tackles for loss, two passes broken up, one sack and one interception. Wilson is a preseason third-team All-ACC pick in Steele’s magazine.
-Nevada fired head coach Ken Wilson after back-to-back 2-10 seasons. Wilson’s 2023 squad finished 2-10 SU and 6-6 ATS, but it lost by double digits in nine of its 10 defeats.
-Nevada has six starters back on offense and six on defense. The Wolf Pack return 34 lettermen and lost 26. They were -1,714 in net yardage last year and -4 in turnover margin.
-Nevada QB Brendon Lewis has won the starting job, as Chubba Purdy is ‘out’ this week as the team awaits the results of an MRI for an undisclosed injury. Lewis struggled mightily in 2023, completing 55.5 percent of his passes for 1,313 yards with an abysmal 2/6 TD-INT ratio. He is a threat with his legs, though, rushing for 495 yards and four TDs with a 4.1 YPC average.
-Nevada RB Pat Garwo, a transfer from Boston College who rushed for 1,912 yards and 11 TDs in five seasons for the Eagles, was expected to start for the Wolf Pack. However, he isn’t listed on this week’s depth chart.
-Nevada has replaced Wilson with Jeff Choate, who was Steve Sarkisian’s co-defensive coordinator at Texas for the last three years. Choate was previously the HC at Montana St., where he 4-7, 5-6, 8-5 and 11-4. In his third season with the Bobcats, they went to the FCS playoffs before losing in the second round. In his fourth year at the school, Montana St. made it to the FCS semifinals and finished ranked fourth in the nation. However, Choate left when the school cancelled the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to COVID.
-Per weather.com, the forecast in Reno is calling for 10-15 MPH winds and a low temperature of 43 degrees, but that wouldn’t be until deep into the second half. With the game kicking off at 5:00 p.m. local time, temperatures could be in the mid-to-upper 50s for most of the first half.
-The CBS Sports Network will provide the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTION: I don’t like laying big numbers. If you can find SMU at -14 in the first half, I’d endorse a small play on that. I think it’s Mustangs or pass but again, I don’t like laying big numbers. If Nevada were to get out to a lead or hang tough in the first half, I’d be interested in SMU if its in-game number got into the -17 to -20 range.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Hawaii installed as a 40-point home favorite vs. Delaware St. The total was in the 54.5 to 56 range.
-Delaware St., which is 10-58 SU in its last 68 games (Hat Tip, Paul Stone), missed its 10.5-hour flight to Honolulu due to a busing “snafu” that caused it to be late to the airport. Stephen Tsai, Hawaii’s long-time beat reporter for the Honolulu Star Advertiser, reported last night that the final group of Delaware St.’s travel party was arriving at 3:00 p.m. Hawaii time yesterday.
-Delaware St. at Hawaii will kick at midnight Eastern, with Spectrum Sports providing the telecast on pay per view.
-Fox Sports 1 will broadcast Montana St. at New Mexico at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. As of early Friday afternoon, most books had the Bobcats listed as 13.5-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 54.5. The Lobos were +400 on the money line.
-New Mexico fired Danny Gonzales after four consecutive losing seasons, including last year’s 4-8 SU and 6-6 ATS finish. The Lobos have replaced him with Bronco Mendenhall, who had a long tenure at BYU before leaving for Virginia. UNM has six starters back on defense and three on offense.