Published on Friday, 10/11/24, at 11:02 a.m. Eastern.
Updated on Saturday, 10/12/24, at 9:23 a.m. ET.
What’s up, all?! Week 7 is upon us, and we’ve got lots of outstanding games on the menu, including Ohio St. at Oregon, Penn St. at USC and Texas vs. Oklahoma. Let’s hit on some news, notes, injury intel, line moves and take a deeper look at a pair of SEC showdowns.
-USC will be without star LB and leading tackler Eric Gentry for a second straight week in today’s home game vs. Penn St. Despite missing last week’s 24-17 loss at Minnesota, Gentry still has a team-high 30 tackles. He’s also contributed seven tackles for loss, two sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one pass broken up. CB Jacobe Covington is ‘questionable’ for USC and will likely be a game-time decision. In five games this year, Covington has 17 tackles, two PBU and one TFL.
-FSU senior LB DJ Lundy is out of the rest of the season with an undisclosed injury. In five games this year, Lundy recorded 25 tackles, one TFL and one PBU. In 2023, he produced 54 tackles, six TFL’s, four PBU, two sacks and one interception. The Seminoles, who are 1-5 straight up and 2-4 against the spread, have their open date in Week 7 before playing back-to-back road games at Duke and at Miami.
-In its Games of the Year lines updated this week, FanDuel has the Hurricanes installed as 17.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. FSU on Oct. 26. The total is 52.5 points, and the ‘Noles are +610 on the money line.
-Some other interesting lines from FanDuel’s Games of the Year:
Ohio St. -4 at Penn St.
Georgia -3.5 (-105 price) at Ole Miss
Alabama -6.5 (-105) at LSU
Georgia -9.5 vs. Tennessee
Ohio St. -18.5 (-115) vs. Michigan
Texas -7.5 (-115) at Texas A&M (Longhorns were -11.5 at a -105 price on Friday afternoon)
-Here’s the hypothetical line for an ACC Championship Game matchup between Miami and Clemson. In that article, I also explored the spoilers (SMU and/or Pitt) who can foil that matchup.
-Speaking of the Panthers, they’re my favorite Bet of the Week. I’m on Pitt -3 vs. Cal for 2.5 units for a bunch of reasons (that you can hear me explain in this clip from Friday’s Chris Vernon Show in Memphis for Grind City Media, but the main one is the play of quarterback Eli Holstein. The transfer from Alabama has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 1,564 yards with a 15/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 265 rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.5 yards-per-carry average. Pitt (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) is ranked fourth nationally in total offense and sixth in both passing yards and scoring with its 45.6 points-per-game average. Cal is flying into the Eastern time zone for the third time in five weeks and is off a deflating heartbreaker. Love Pitt -3!
-Here’s the scoop on Georgia WR Colbie Young, who has been suspended indefinitely after being arrested earlier this week.
-Here are my updated CFB Power Rankings ahead of Week 7.
-For my analysis of last week’s SEC games and my thoughts on this week’s matchups, here’s the Week 7 edition of Bets & Ballgames for Southeastern 16. If you aren’t familiar with this once-a-week podcast, it can be found on the Southeastern 16 YouTube channel. My co-host is Jay Greeson, the long-time columnist for the Chattanooga Times Free Press. The show is sponsored by myperfectfranchise.net.
-Cincinnati RB Corey Kiner will start at UCF. Kiner left the 44-41 loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago after only three carries due to an injury. The Bearcats’ open date came at the perfect time for Kiner, who has 413 rushing yards, two TDs and a 6.2 YPC average. He had 1,047 rushing yards in 2023. I’m on Cincinnati +3 at UCF for one unit. Kiner’s return is a boost, but I’m mostly bullish on the Bearcats because of the outstanding play from QB Brendan Sorsby, the Indiana transfer who has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,481 yards with a 12/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has three rushing TDs.
-FanDuel’s Week 8 look-ahead lines are up. Some of the most intriguing ones include Indiana -4.5 vs. Nebraska, Oklahoma -5.5 vs. South Carolina, Texas -2.5 vs. Georgia, Michigan -1.5 at Illinois, Kansas St. -1.5 at West Virginia, Kentucky -2.5 at Florida and Alabama -2.5 at Tennessee.
-FanDuel’s updated odds to win the CFP have Ohio St. as the +290 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belong to Texas (+450), UGA (+450), Alabama (+650), Oregon +1000 (or 10/1), Ole Miss (16/1), Penn St. (18/1), Miami (20/1), Tennessee (20/1), Clemson (25/1), Notre Dame (40/1) and Texas A&M (50/1). Some interesting longshots are Utah (100/1), Indiana (170/1), Boise St. (170/1), Colorado (250/1), BYU (400/1), Pitt (950/1), Army (950/1) and Navy (950/1).
-If you’re one that likes to throw some small change at a longshot wager, I recommended Kurtis Rourke to win the Heisman Trophy at 100/1 odds a couple of weeks ago. Rourke’s number at FanDuel is down to 45/1 going into Week 7. If someone’s asking me to throw out another longshot for the Heisman this week, I’d say Pitt’s Holstein at 150/1 at DraftKings. This is very likely going to be a loser, but that’s the deal with every longshot bet. If you’re nonetheless interested in my reasoning for Holstein potentially having a chance, I made my case in this tweet.
-FanDuel has Boise St. RB Ashton Jeanty as the +240 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman ahead of Week 7. The next-shortest odds belong to Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter (+320), Miami QB Cam Ward (+450), Alabama QB Jalen Milroe (+900), Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (+1400 or 14/1), Georgia QB Carson Beck (14/1), Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart (16/1), Texas QB Quinn Ewers (18/1), Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (18/1) and Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava (30/1). I think this Heisman race is wide-ass open. Ewers has missed three games, but he has showcase contests in the next two weeks and could see a dramatic reduction in his odds with stellar performances against Oklahoma and Georgia. I think Ewers is the play at 18/1.
-During Saturday’s feel-good hours, Boise St. will have Jeanty on display in an 11:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Hawaii on the CBS Sports Network. In five games this year, Jeanty has 1,031 rushing yards, 16 TDs and a 10.9 YPC average. His rushing yards for each game have been 267 at Ga. Southern, 192 at Oregon, 127 vs. Portland St., 259 vs. Washington St. and 186 vs. Utah St.
-Eastern Michigan, BYU, Marshall, Army and Pitt are 5-0 ATS. Illinois is 4-0-1 ATS. Chris Creighton’s EMU squad is a 2.5-point home underdog Saturday vs. Miami (OH.). The Eagles are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the RedHawks since winning 52-33 at Kent St.
-BYU (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona. The Cougars were -3 at most books as of early Friday.
-Marshall (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) is a one or 1.5-point road favorite at Ga. Southern, which has had two weeks to prepare for the Thundering Herd. Army (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) is anywhere from -26 to -27 for Saturday’s home game vs. UAB. The Blazers might be without their starting QB Jacob Zeno, who is ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury.
-The stakes will be really high in Redstick for Saturday’s showdown between LSU and Ole Miss at Tiger Stadium. As of early Friday, most books had the Rebels listed as 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 62. Lane Kiffin’s team is off a nice 27-3 bounce-back win at South Carolina as a 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Ole Miss (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) is in a brutal spot, though, as it’s playing for the seventh time in seven weeks. On the flip side, LSU (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare. The Rebels are dealing with a bunch of key injuries. RB2 Matt Jones is ‘out,’ while three starters are listed as ‘questionable.’ That trio includes DT JJ Pegues, OG Jeremy James and DE Princely Umanmielen. The good news is that WR Tre Harris was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday.
-Umanmielen missed last week’s win over Gamecocks with an undisclosed injury. In his first four games at Ole Miss, Umanmielen recorded 13 tackles, six TFL’s and 3.5 sacks. Harris leads the nation in receiving yards (885), is second in catches (55) and also has five TD receptions. Pegues has 17 tackles, seven TFL’s, one fumble recovery and 0.5 sacks. He’s also been used in goal-line and short-yardage situations out of the backfield, rushing for 19 yards and four TDs on seven attempts. In Phil Steele’s preseason magazine, Harris was a first-team All-SEC selection and Umanmielen was a third-team choice.
-LSU WRs Chris Hilton and CJ Daniels have been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ vs. Ole Miss. Daniels has 20 catches for 239 yards through five games.
-LSU is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of home underdog situation since Brian Kelly took over in 2022. The Tigers beat Mississippi St. and Alabama as home ‘dogs in his first season on their way to winning the SEC West.
-Ole Miss is 9-3-1 ATS in 13 games as a road favorite during Kiffin’s five-year tenure, including spread covers at Wake Forest (40-6) and at South Carolina (27-3) this season.
**Florida at Tennessee**
-Florida was a 15.5-point road underdog at Tennessee (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) early in the week. As of Friday, though, most spots had the Vols at -14 with a total of 57 points. The Gators are 17-2 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 head-to-head meetings against the Vols, who are off a 19-14 loss at Arkansas as 13.5-point road ‘chalk.’
-When UF sent out its required availability report to the SEC office Wednesday night, star WR Eugene Wilson wasn’t on it. Wilson is set to return at UT from a knee injury that’s sidelined him for the last three games. In the Gators’ first two outings, Wilson had 13 receptions for 191 yards and one TD.
-Florida is 4-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog during Billy Napier’s three-year tenure. Napier is 9-3-1 ATS in 13 career games as a double-digit underdog.
-Tennessee won and covered in each of its first four games, including a home win over Chattanooga (69-3), a neutral-field win over NC St. (51-10) in Charlotte, a 71-0 home victory vs. Kent St. and a 25-15 win at Oklahoma.
-Tennessee is 14-5 ATS in 19 games as a home favorite during Josh Heupel’s four-year reign in Knoxville.
-Tennessee sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,037 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. RB Dylan Sampson leads the SEC in rushing yards per game (117.4) and rushing TDs (12) and is averaging 6.5 YPC.
-Tennessee WR Dont’e Thornton is listed as ‘questionable.’ Thornton has eight receptions for a team-high 284 yards and three TDs.
-When these teams met at The Swamp last year, Florida (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won a 29-16 decision as a 4.5-point home underdog. The 45 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 56.5-point total. QB Graham Mertz completed 19-of-24 passes for 166 yards and one TD without an interception. He also had a rushing TD. Wilson had six catches for 44 yards.
-Florida was hoping to get back a pair of defensive contributors who have been out since early September. The Gators are going to get one of them back. Safety Asa Turner isn’t quite ready, though, as the Washington transfer was downgraded from ‘questionable’ to ‘out’ on Friday. On the bright side, DT Joey Slackman and starting OT Austin Barber were removed from the injury report after being listed as ‘questionable’ at UT. Slackman is a four-star transfer from Penn who was the Ivy League’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2023.
-When was the last time Tennessee beat Florida by more than 14 points? The year was 1992 and the Vols thumped UF 31-14 in a driving rainstorm. That win was the catalyst for Phil Fulmer, the interim HC at the time for Johnny Majors, who was dealing with health issues, to become the permanent HC later that year.
-The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for UF, 1-0 in its lone road assignment.
-The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for UT, but the ‘under’ has easily cashed in back-to-back games.
-Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
PREDICTION: I got UF at +15.5 early in the week for 0.5 units.
**Vanderbilt at Kentucky**
-As of Friday, most books had Kentucky (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) installed as a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 44.5. The Commodores were +405 on the money line.
-Kentucky star cornerback Maxwell Hairston has been ruled ‘out’ for a second straight game. Hairston, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2023 when he recorded 67 tackles, six passes broken up, five interceptions and 1.5 TFL’s, had eight tackles, one sack, one forced fumble and one interception that he returned 25 yards for a TD in UK’s first four games.
-Kentucky is ranked #5 nationally in total defense, #6 against the run, #20 in pass defense and #11 in scoring ‘D’ (13.4 points per game).
-UK is #115 in the country in total offense, #116 in passing yards, #77 in rushing yards and #107 in scoring with its 22.0 PPG average.
-Kentucky is in an ideal spot here catching Vandy off its biggest win in program history. In addition, Mark Stoops’s squad has had two weeks to prepare for the Commodores, who won 24-21 at UK as 17.5-point road underdogs in their last visit to Kroger Field in 2022.
-Vanderbilt (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) captured a 40-35 win over Alabama as a 23-point home underdog last Saturday. Clark Lea’s team hooked up money-line backers with a 14/1 payout at DraftKings. QB Diego Pavia was the catalyst in the wire-to-wire victory that saw Vandy dominate the stats. The ‘Dores had a 26-17 advantage in first downs, a 42:08 to 17:52 advantage in time of possession, a 418-394 edge in total yards and a 166-84 advantage in rushing yards. Pavia completed 16-of-20 passes for 252 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had 57 rushing yards on 19 attempts.
-For the season, Pavia has connected on 66.7 percent of his throws for 973 yards and eight TDs without an interception. The transfer from New Mexico St. also has a team-high 336 rushing yards and two TDs.
-Vandy might be without its leading tackler (from last season and this year) at UK. Junior LB Langston Patterson is listed as ‘questionable.’ He’s contributed 36 tackles and two TFL’s through five games. On the bright side, a pair of defensive starters for the ‘Dores – safety CJ Taylor and DT Yilanan Ouattara – have been upgraded to ‘probable.’
-Vandy is 3-0 ATS with two outright wins in three games as a double-digit underdog this season. The only outright defeat came in overtime at Missouri in Week 4.
-During Lea’s four-year tenure, Vandy has compiled a 9-7 ATS record in 16 games as a road underdog.
-Kentucky is 18-11 ATS in its 29 games as a home favorite since the start of the 2019 campaign.
-The ‘over’ is a perfect 5-0 for Vandy with its games producing combined scores of 61, 55, 68, 57 and 75 points. This is tied for the Commodores’ lowest total, as their 36-32 loss at Ga. St. saw the 68 combined points soar ‘over’ the 44.5-point tally.
-The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for Kentucky, 3-1 in its home contests. The Wildcats have had combined scores of 31, 37, 25, 47 and 37 points.
-The SEC Network will have the broadcast from Kroger Field at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.
-I made UK an eight-point home favorite in this matchup. Although it’s a brutal spot for Vandy, I believe the letdown factor has been overly cooked into the number already. More than anything, though, I’m just a HUGE believer in Diego F’n Pavia!!
PREDICTION: Vandy +14 (buying half-point for -120 juice from +13.5) for one unit. Also, let’s put 0.25 units on the ‘Dores for a +425 return (Westgate SuperBook).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Oklahoma won’t have its five best WRs due to injuries vs. Texas. Deion Burks, who was listed as ‘questionable’ on Wednesday’s availability report, is ‘out’ according to a report from ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Burks leads the Sooners in catches (26) and receiving yards (201).
-Alabama junior DT Jehiem Oatis left the program earlier this week with plans to redshirt this season and enter the transfer portal. Oatis, a former Top-40 recruit, had 26 tackles, two QB hurries, two PBU and 0.5 sacks in 2023.
-I’m a big fan of UT’s Heupel, who has exceeded expectations for the Vols since taking over in 2021. However, I was really surprised to see him fumble the clock management situation in Fayetteville last weekend. Tennessee should’ve had at least another 15 seconds to work with on that final drive.
-Texas is the +150 favorite to win the SEC Championship Game at FanDuel. The betting shop has Alabama and Georgia with the next-shortest odds at +410, followed by Ole Miss (+750), Texas A&M (+750), Tennessee (20/1), LSU (24/1), Arkansas (65/1), Missouri (75/1) and Oklahoma (100/1). The remaining SEC schools have 500/1 odds.
-DraftKings has Missouri as an eight-point home favorite vs. Auburn in Week 8. Hugh Freeze’s team will have had two weeks to prepare thanks to an open date this weekend. Eli Drinkwitz’s squad is in bounce-back mode Saturday as a 27 or 27.5-point road favorite at UMass.
-For our purposes, the winless teams include NC St. (0-6 ATS), Kansas (0-6 ATS), Kent St. (0-5), Air Force (0-5) and North Carolina (0-5-1).
-The teams that have seen the ‘over’ cash at a 5-0 clip are Vandy, Ball St., Boise St. and Navy. The ‘over’ is 5-0-1 for Miami. Indiana, which is sporting a 6-0 SU record and a 5-1 ATS mark during its open date this weekend, has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1.
-The ‘under’ is 6-0 for Houston. There are seven teams who have seen the ‘under’ hit at a 5-1 clip. They’re FSU, Boston College, Ga. Tech, Nebraska, Michigan St., Ole Miss and Washington.
-Purdue QB Hudson Card is ‘out’ Saturday at Illinois (concussion). Card has completed 63.4 percent of his throws for 738 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio.
-South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown will be a game-time decision for today’s 3:30 p.m. Eastern kick vs. Memphis. Due to Hurricane Milton, this game was from Tampa on Friday night to today in Orlando. As of Saturday morning, most spots had the Tigers as 8.5 or nine-point favorites with a total of 59 or 59.5.
-Syracuse RB Will Nixon is out for the rest of the season due to a Lisfranc injury. Nixon had 76 rushing yards and a 4.0 YPC average on 19 attempts in three games. He also had four catches for 44 yards.
-If you tailed me on my best bet last week with that easy 2.5-unit winner on the Commanders -3 vs. Cleveland, here’s a shameless plug to “tip your bartenders” if you’re into that sort of thing. As noted above, Pitt -3 vs. Cal is this week’s Best Bet. To a lesser extent (unit/amount-wise), I like the Broncos +3 vs. the Chargers. And yes, after backing the Commanders successfully four weeks in a row, I’m right back on Jayden Daniels and Co. as a seven-point underdog (-120 buying half-point) at Baltimore.
–You can follow me on Twitter here and can always reach out to me via e-mail at briane.edwards11@gmail.com. You can also follow us here at MajorWager on our Twitter page.