**Texas at Arkansas**
-This old-school Southwest Conference will be renewed Saturday in Fayetteville, where Arkansas (5-4 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) smashed 15th-ranked Texas 40-21 as a 6.5-point home underdog in Week 2 of the 2021 campaign. These schools will collide for the first time as members of the Southeastern Conference at noon Eastern on ABC.
-As of early Thursday morning, most books had Texas (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) listed as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 57.5. The Razorbacks were +425 on the money line. For first-half bets, the Longhorns were seven-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 28.5. The Hogs had +290 odds to take a lead into halftime.
-By Saturday morning, most spots had Texas at -12.5 or -13. The total was in the 57-58 range, and the Hogs were +400 on the money line.
-Steve Sarkisian’s team is ranked #3 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings released by the selection committee on Tuesday night.
-Texas started the season with six straight wins by margins of 19 points or more. However, the Longhorns lost their unbeaten record in a 30-15 loss to Georgia as four-point home ‘chalk.’ Since then, they’ve captured a 27-24 win at Vanderbilt and a 49-17 triumph over Florida as 23-point home favorites.
-Texas raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead against the Gators and went up 42-0 before they got on the board with a field goal midway through the third quarter. QB Quinn Ewers completed 19-of-27 passes for 333 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. Matthew Golden had three receptions for 64 yards and two TDs.
-For the season, Ewers has connected on 69.3 percent of his throws for 1,722 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio in seven games. Among SEC QBs qualified with enough playing time, Ewers has the second-best QBR (160.2) behind only Ole Miss signal caller Jaxson Dart (188.6).
-Texas LB Morice Blackwell is listed as ‘doubtful’ at Arkansas and EDGE Colton Vasek is ‘out.’ Blackwell has played in all nine games, contributing 21 tackles. Vasek, a redshirt freshman, has six tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, two sacks and one QB hurry. He played in the Longhorns’ first eight games before being sidelined vs. UF.
-Although Texas is currently #3 in the CFP rankings, it’s unclear where it will stand if it loses one of its final three games. The Longhorns host Kentucky next weekend before playing their regular-season finale at Texas A&M on Nov. 30. Their SEC wins have come at home vs. Mississippi St. and Florida, who are 0-6 and 2-4 in conference play, respectively. Texas has a neutral field win over Oklahoma (1-5 in SEC games) and a road win over Vandy (3-3 in SEC play). The Longhorns won 31-12 at Michigan in Week 2, but that victory over the defending national champions hasn’t aged well. The Wolverines are 5-5 overall and 3-4 in Big Ten games. Unless Vandy wins at LSU and at home vs. Tennessee, the regular season is going to end with Texas having faced only one ranked team – the Aggies in College Station.
-With its 4-1 record in SEC play, Texas is one-half game behind the league’s co-leaders, seventh-ranked Tennessee and 15th-ranked Texas A&M.
-Arkansas is 3-3 in SEC action with a home win over the Volunteers (19-14) and road scalps at Auburn (24-14) and at Mississippi St. (58-25). The Razorbacks have home losses vs. LSU (34-10) and Ole Miss (63-31), and they lost a 21-17 decision to Texas A&M in Arlington, TX., on a neutral field.
-On Wednesday night’s SEC injury report, Arkansas had its two best weapons on offense – QB Taylen Green and RB Ja’Quinden Jackson – listed as ‘probable.’ Jackson has missed back-to-back games with a leg injury. In the Hogs’ first seven contests, Jackson had 592 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. He also has 11 catches for 125 receiving yards.
-Green had to leave the home loss vs. Ole Miss two weeks ago with a knee injury. For the season, the Boise State transfer has completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 2,213 yards with an 11/7 TD-INT ratio. Green has 411 rushing yards, five TDs and a 3.9 YPC average.
-Andrew Armstrong is Green’s favorite target. Despite missing one game, Armstrong has 55 catches for 857 yards and one TD. TE Luke Hasz has 19 receptions for 267 yards and a team-best four TDs.
-Arkansas is 4-2 ATS with a pair of outright wins in six games as an underdog this year. The Hogs are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in five home contests this season.
-In 14 games as a home underdog during Sam Pittman’s five-year tenure, Arkansas is 8-6 ATS.
-Totals have been an overall wash for Texas, going 4-4-1. The ‘over’ is 1-0-1 in its two road assignments. The ‘under’ had cashed at a 3-0-1 clip for the Longhorns in their last four outings before the ‘over’ cashed in last week’s win over UF.
-The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for Arkansas to improve to 5-4 overall. The ‘over’ is 3-2 in its five home contests.
PREDICTION: I was able to get down on Arkansas at +14 for one unit early in the week. With the line at +13, I’ll recommend a half-unit play on the Hogs at +13.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-In its Week 13 look-ahead lines, DraftKings has Texas installed as a 21-point home favorite vs. Kentucky. In other SEC games, Alabama is -13.5 at Oklahoma, LSU is -10.5 vs. Vandy, Texas A&M is -5 at Auburn and Ole Miss is -11.5 at Florida.
-The ‘over’ has hit in six straight Florida-LSU games with the last five combined scores producing 87, 80, 91, 71 and 70 points. The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games for the Gators to improve to 6-3 overall. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Tigers in their three road assignments. The Gators will try to end LSU’s five-game winning streak both SU and ATS in this rivalry at The Swamp today at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. PREDICTION: I’m on UF-LSU ‘over’ 56 points for one unit. I bought the half-point from -3.5 to -3 for a one-half unit play on LSU.
-Despite sustaining a head injury in last week’s home win over Mississippi St., Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been cleared to play and will start tonight at Georgia. The Bulldogs have moved from -10 to -9 at most spots since ESPN’s Chris Low broke the story last night. UGA is actually -8 at Circa in Las Vegas and -8.5 at a few shops. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
-According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Missouri QB Brady Cook is a true game-time decision today at South Carolina. Cook has been listed as ‘doubtful’ all week. The Gamecocks have won three games in a row and covered the number in four straight contests.
-Thamel is also reporting that Pitt QB Eli Holstein is ‘out’ today’s home game vs. Clemson.
-South Alabama QB Gio Lopez has been cleared to start today at Louisiana. He left the Jaguars’ last game two weeks ago with a concussion. Nevertheless, I’m on Louisiana -7 vs. South Alabama for 1.5 units.
-For more of my picks and analysis, check out the Week 13 edition of my ‘Bets & Ballgames’ podcast for Southeastern 16.