Edwards likes KU as a home favorite vs. Texas Tech

Edwards likes KU as a home favorite vs. Texas Tech

Kansas (7-2 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) is unbeaten in five home games with a 4-1 spread record. The Jayhawks have won their home games by margins of 31, 11, 11, 29 and 5 points.

Regardless of the venue, Kansas is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its last four games, including a 51-22 win over UCF as a 1.5-point home underdog, a 38-33 program-defining victory vs. Oklahoma as a seven-point home ‘dog and a 28-21 win at Iowa St. as a 2.5-point road ‘dog.

Lance Leipold’s team ended the Cyclones’ three-game winning streak both SU and ATS last week. KU took a 7-0 lead midway through the first quarter on a Devin Neal eight-yard touchdown run, and it never trailed the rest of the way.

Kansas extended its lead to 21-3 on Neal’s one-yard TD run with 9:24 left in the third quarter. Through nine games, Neal has 828 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. He also has 21 receptions for 200 yards and one TD.

The lone blemish in KU’s 3-1 stretch in its last four was a 39-32 loss at Oklahoma St. The Jayhawks led 32-30 with less than three minutes remaining, but the Cowboys rallied and are currently on a five-game winning streak.

Leipold has Kansas on its way to a second straight appearance in a bowl game, which is remarkable in itself since the Jayhawks hadn’t gone bowling since 2008 until last year’s invite to the Liberty Bowl. Making it more impressive is the fact that star QB Jalon Daniels hasn’t played due to a back injury since Week 4.

Daniels was off to a spectacular start in his first three games, too. He had completed 56-of-75 passes (74.7%) for 705 yards and five TDs compared to only one interception. Daniels also had 74 rushing yards in wins vs. Illinois (34-23), at Nevada (31-24) and vs. BYU (38-27).

Backup QB Jason Bean has been solid, though. He connected on 14-of-23 throws for 287 yards and one TD without an interception in the win in Ames last week. For the season, Bean has a 60.7 completion percentage, 1,418 passing yards, a 10/4 TD-INT ratio, 156 rushing yards and one rushing TD.

KU is ranked #35 nationally in total offense, #19 in rushing yards and #20 in scoring with its 34.9 points-per-game average.

Texas Tech (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is 1-3 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this year, losing 27-14 at BYU, 20-13 at West Virginia and 35-33 at Wyoming.

Kansas has revenge motivation on its side, too. The Jayhawks trailed 33-28 in the fourth quarter last year in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders scored a pair of TDs in the last 4:19 of play to pull away for a 43-28 win.

I’m actually on Kansas -3 (albeit at a -125 price) after buying the hook when the number was -3.5 early in the week. Nevertheless, I made KU a six-point home favorite and still recommend laying the reasonable number (-4 at all books as of Wednesday morning) at home.

PREDICTION: Kansas -4 vs. Texas Tech. I’ll call for the Jayhawks to win by a 35-27 count.