As of early Wednesday afternoon, most books had Missouri (8-3 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) installed as a three-point home favorite for Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Arkansas. The total was 54.5 points, while the Razorbacks were +135 on the money line.
According to the weather forecast, temperatures for kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Eastern are expected to be in the low 30s and dropping as the game gets into the second half. There’s a 50 percent chance of snow showers and the field could get an inch of snow.
Even if there’s a bunch of snow, I don’t see it as advantage for either team.
Missouri (8-3 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) has covered the spread in three straight games, including a 31-24 home win over Oklahoma and a 39-20 win at Mississippi St. this past weekend. QB Brady Cook was sharp against the Bulldogs, completing 15-of-20 passes for 268 yards and one TD without an interception.
For the season, Cook has connected on 64.3 percent of his passes for 2,080 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has four rushing TDs.
Eli Drinkwitz’s team might need to put more emphasis on the ground attack with the potential weather, and that’ll be music to the ears of RBs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll.
Noel has a team-high 779 rushing yards, three touchdowns and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average, while Carroll has 488 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 4.4 YPC average.
Missouri has won back-to-back games over Arkansas and seven of the last eight, including last year’s 48-14 win in Fayetteville.
Although the Tigers had SEC and CFP aspirations this year, I don’t think we have to concern ourselves with a lack of motivation. They can still post a 10-win season for the second straight year and the effort was certainly there in last week’s win in Starkville.
The Razorbacks, who are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS, have dropped three of their last five games both SU and ATS. Those defeats have come by margins of 24, 32 and 10 points.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s go with two units on Missouri -3 and one unit on the Tigers -1.5 in the first half.