Published July 30, 2024, at 5:42 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Aug. 22, 2024, at 2:52 p.m. Eastern.
My rankings are based on one thing and one thing only – who I would make favored over whom on a neutral field.
1-Georgia: UGA is 46-2 straight up in its last 48 games, with both losses coming to Alabama in SEC Championship Games in 2021 and ’23. Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Bulldogs at #2 at QB, #9 at RB, #16 at WR, #1 on the offensive line, #7 on the defensive line, #3 at linebacker, #3 in the secondary and #3 on special teams.
2-Oregon: The Ducks went 12-2 SU and 11-3 against the spread in 2023, but a pair of losses to Washington by six combined points prevented them from making the College Football Playoff. They’re 22-5 SU and 19-8 ATS in two seasons under Dan Lanning, who brought in the nation’s #4 overall recruiting class and the #2 transfer-specific group.
3-Ohio St.: You think Buckeye fans are tired of losing to Michigan? NIL funds were flowing in Columbus during the offseason, resulting in transfer imports like RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), safety Caleb Downs (Alabama), QB Will Howard (Kansas St.) and QB Julian Sayin (Alabama) landing at Ohio St.
4-Texas: Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Longhorns #1 at QB, #10 at RB, #19 at WR, #2 on the o-line, #18 on the d-line, #4 at LB, #16 in the secondary and #2 on special teams. They finished 12-2 SU and 7-7 ATS, losing 37-31 to Washington in the CFP semifinals. Steve Sarkisian’s squad has seven starters back on offense and eight on defense. (UPDATE: By mid-August, two RBs – Christian Clark and CJ Baxter – had already gone down with season-ending injuries, leaving Sark’s offense with only three healthy RBs on scholarship.
5-Alabama: The dynastic Nick Saban Era is over, but AD Greg Byrne got one of the hottest head coaches on the market when he hired Kalen DeBoer to replace him. DeBoer owns a 104-12 career record in nine seasons as a HC. The cupboard isn’t bare, either. Alabama has an elite QB in Jalen Milroe, the nation’s best kicker (Graham Nicholson), one of the country’s best interior linemen in Parker Brailsford, studs on defense like LB Deontae Lawson, safety Malachi Moore, DT Tim Smith and CB Domani Jackson and the nation’s #3 transfer specific class.
6-Ole Miss: Here’s my detailed preview of the Rebels and explanation for backing them to go ‘over’ 9.5 wins.
7-Penn St.: The Nittany Lions have seven starters back from an outstanding defense that gave up an average of merely 13.5 points per game. They haven’t been able to win the big games during James Franklin’s tenure that’s entering its 11th season, though. PSU doesn’t have to play Michigan or Oregon, and it gets Ohio St. in Happy Valley. However, there are potential road hiccups at West Virginia, at USC, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota.
8-Utah: The Utes lost only 16 lettermen, return nine starters on defense and get back their two best players on offense. QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe missed all of last season.
9-Missouri: I’m on Mizzou to go ‘over’ its season win total and explained why in this piece. The Tigers lost only 23 lettermen from a team that enjoyed an 11-2 breakout campaign. They’ve got nine starters returning from an offense that’s led by QB Brady Cook, who has weapons galore like WR Luther Burden, WR Theo Wease, WR Mookie Cooper, TE Brett Norfleet, RB Nate Noel and RB Marcus Carroll. Four-star transfer DE Darris Smith (Georgia) went down with a season-ending injury during camp in August.
10-Notre Dame: The schedule works. If Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard’s ankle can hold up (he had another surgery in the spring), the Fighting Irish should be in the mix for a CFP berth in November. Notre Dame’s toughest games are at Texas A&M, at home vs. FSU (when Marcus Freeman’s team has two weeks to prepare, and the Seminoles don’t) and at USC. The Irish lost starting OT Charles Jagusah to a season-ending injury earlier this month, and that’s a costly one.
11-Michigan: After originally ranking Michigan at #9, I’ve downgraded it one spot. The Wolverines lost 42 lettermen, nine starters on offense and Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless, they’re still going to have one of the nation’s premier defenses and outstanding special teams. Donovan Edwards gives Michigan a veteran playmaker at the RB position. QB is a big question mark, though, and that’s what prompted my downgrade from #10 to #11.
12-FSU: The Seminoles lost a lot of talent from last year’s squad that went 13-1 SU and 8-6 ATS. Mike Norvell brought in 17 transfers, though, including 10 four-star imports. How will DJU perform in his return to the ACC? FSU gets Clemson, UNC and Florida at home, but it has to go to South Bend for a cold-weather game and watch out for a tricky trip to SMU on Sept. 28.
13-Clemson: Dabo Swinney is being such a knucklehead with his stubborn and ignorant decision to ignore the talent in the portal. He should have another outstanding defense and an excellent offensive line, but who are the playmakers? Is Cade Klubnik going to elevate his play?
14-LSU: With the loss of three first-round picks and an elite OC from an electric offense, that unit isn’t going to be as productive. Therefore, new DC Blake Baker, who was hired away from Missouri, better get that unit turned around. It was a disaster in 2023!
15-Tennessee: There’s hope on Rocky Top with Nico Iamaleava ready to take over the reins at QB. The Vols will be good in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Josh Heupel will have the offense humming. However, there are questions galore at linebacker and in the secondary.
16-Oklahoma: The Sooners return eight starters on defense and seven on offense from a team that went 10-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS. Will Jackson Arnold live up to his five-star billing? There are two brutal scheduling spots for Oklahoma, as it plays at Ole Miss and at Missouri when those teams are off an open date and the Sooners aren’t.
17-Iowa: I like the Hawkeyes to go ‘over’ 7.5 or eight wins. They bring back eight starters from a stop unit that gave up merely 14.8 PPG despite zero help from the offense. With the return of QB Cade McNamara, who missed most of last year injured, and a new OC (former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester), Iowa will be improved on this side of the ball.
18-Va. Tech: I’m laying the points with the Hokies at Vandy in Week 1. Brent Pry’s team should be 4-0 when it goes to Miami on Sept. 27. QB Kyron Drones is a dude.
19-Oklahoma St.: Mike Gundy wins ballgames consistently. With Ollie Gordon back in the fold, that’ll continue in Stillwater this season.
20-Texas A&M: Missouri and South Carolina get two weeks to prepare for the Aggies, who will be playing their sixth game in six weeks when they host the Tigers.
21-North Carolina St.: With the additions of QB Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) and RB Jordan Waters (Duke) and the return of star WR Kevin Concepcion, the Wolfpack will be more explosive offensively.
22-Miami: This space will never question Mario Cristobal’s recruiting chops, but he’s one of the worst game coaches in college football.
23-SMU: If Steele’s National Unit Rankings for the Mustangs are on point, watch out. Steele has SMU #9 at QB, #15 at RB, #8 at WR, #18 on the o-line, #25 on the d-line, #10 at LB and #19 in the secondary. The schedule really works during their debut season in the ACC. It’s smaller opinion amount-wise than my plays on Ole Miss, Missouri and Iowa, but I’m also on SMU to go ‘over’ 8.5 wins for a +104 return (FanDuel).
24-Florida: When Florida is right, this year’s schedule isn’t a big deal. Unfortunately for the Gators, they’ve had three losing seasons in a row for the first time in more than seven decades. Billy Napier’s tenure has been an unmitigated disaster from the start. He’d better hope things change quickly in 2024.
25-Kentucky: If QB Brock Vandagriff is ‘as advertised,’ Kentucky’s offense should thrive. Vandagriff has an elite set of WRs led by underrated Dane Key.
26-Louisville: Can new QB Tyler Shough finally stay healthy? He won’t have WR Caullin Lacy for several games after he was injured last week.
27-Kansas St.: QB Avery Johnson will have K-St. in contention in the Big 12 if he can stay healthy.
28-Wisconsin: Year 1 of the Luke Fickell Era in Madison was a disappointment.
29-USC: This looks like a 7-5 team to me.
30-Arizona: Dino Babers is the new OC and he’s got plenty of talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball.
31-Iowa St.: Matt Campbell’s team brings back 10 starters on offense and nine on defense. The Cyclones lost only 15 lettermen.
32-West Virginia: Neal Brown took himself off the hot seat with a 9-4 SU record and an 8-5 ATS mark in 2023. The Mountaineers can make a huge splash if they can knock off Penn St. in Morgantown in Week 1.
33-Auburn: I don’t get why Hugh Freeze didn’t grab a veteran QB from the portal to compete with Payton Thorne.
34-UCF: Has anybody seen a total for KJ Jefferson’s rushing yards this year? He’s going to have lots of them in Gus Malzahn’s offense.
35-South Carolina: The Gamecocks need RB Rocket Sanders to return to his 2022 form.
Just Missed: Kansas, Nebraska, Rutgers, North Carolina and Boise St.