The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff will begin on New Year’s Eve at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX., where Ohio St. (12-1 straight up, 10-2-1 against the spread) will face Miami at AT&T Stadium.
As of Tuesday afternoon, most books had the Buckeyes listed as 9.5-point favorites with a total of 42.5. The Hurricanes were in the +275 to +310 range (FanDuel) on the money line.
Miami (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) advanced past the first round with last Saturday’s 10-3 win at Texas A&M as a three-point road underdog. The 13 combined points went ‘under’ the 48.5-point total.
UM senior quarterback Carson Beck found star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney for an 11-yard touchdown pass with 1:44 remaining to put the ‘Canes ahead for good. Toney had coughed up a fumble on UM’s previous possession.
However, Miami DE Rueben Bain Jr. picked his WR up by recording two of his three sacks on the next series to force the Aggies to punt. Those plays by Bain set the ‘Canes up for their crucial six-play, 86-yard scoring drive.
Texas A&M launched a 10-play, 70-yard drive on its final possession. But with 24 ticks remaining on a third-and-goal play from UM’s 5, Marcel Reed was intercepted in the end zone by freshman DB Bryce Fitzgerald, who made his second pick of the day.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. ran for 172 yards on 17 carries against the Aggies, but UM kicker Carter Davis allowed Texas A&M to hang around by missing three field goals on a windy day at Kyle Field.
Miami has only been an underdog once this season, beating Notre Dame 27-24 in its season opener as a three-point home underdog. The ‘Canes are 5-6 ATS with four outright victories in 11 games as underdogs during Mario Cristobal’s four-year tenure.
After a 14-7 home win over Texas in its season opener, Ohio St. won its next 11 games by margins of 18 points or more. However, the Buckeyes lost a 13-10 decision vs. Indiana as three-point ‘chalk’ in the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 6.
These teams haven’t met since splitting a pair of regular-season games in 2010 and 2011. The Buckeyes won 36-24 as eight-point home favorites in 2010, but the ‘Canes won 24-6 as two-point home favorites the following year.
On New Year’s Day at noon Eastern in Miami at the Orange Bowl, Oregon (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) will take on Texas Tech. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Ducks installed as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 52.5.
Texas Tech (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) is on a six-game winning streak both SU and ATS, winning all six of those games by 22 points or more, including a 34-7 win over BYU as a 13.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Ducks are on a seven-game winning streak since taking its only loss of the season at home to Indiana, 30-20, on Oct. 11. They’re 1-2 ATS in three games as single-digit ‘chalk’ this season.
Dan Lanning’s team beat James Madison in the first round of the CFP this past Saturday night, 51-34, but the Dukes posted a backdoor cover as 20.5-point road underdogs thanks to a 21-3 run to close the game.
Oregon QB Dante Moore completed 19-of-27 passes for 313 yards and four TDs, but he was intercepted twice.
Top-seeded Indiana (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) will take on Alabama on New Year’s Day at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Tuesday, most shops had the Hoosiers as 6.5-point favorites, but DraftKings and BetMGM had them favored by seven at a -105 price. The total was 48.5 points, while the Crimson Tide had +210 money-line odds.
Alabama (11-3 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) overcame a 17-0 deficit at Oklahoma this past Friday night by scoring 27 unanswered points and eventually capturing a 34-24 win as a 1.5-point road underdog. The 58 combined points went ‘over’ the 42.5-point total.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson connected on 18-of-29 throws for 232 yards and two TDs without an interception, and WR Lotzeir Brooks had five catches for 79 yards and two TDs.
There were two enormous game-changing plays late in the second quarter. With the Sooners leading 17-7 with 4:23 left in the second quarter, Grayson Miller dropped the ball before punting it, setting Alabama up with a short field at the OU 30.
The Tide got one first down before its drive stalled, but a 35-yard field goal by Conor Talty cut OU’s lead to 17-10. Four plays later, OU’s John Mateer was intercepted by Alabama’s Zabien Brown, who turned it into a 50-yard pick-six to tie the game up.
With 11:21 remaining in the third quarter, Simpson hit Brooks for a 30-yard TD pass and a 24-17 advantage. Talty added a 40-yard field goal with 4:30 left in the third.
The Sooners countered with a 37-yard TD pass from Mateer to Deion Burks with 14:45 left in the final stanza, but the Tide responded with a six-yard TD run from Daniel Hill and held on for the win.
Alabama has been an underdog three times this season, producing a 2-1 record both SU and ATS with road wins at Georgia and Oklahoma. Indiana is 1-1 ATS in a pair of single-digit ‘chalk’ situations this year.
The last of the four CFP quarterfinals games will go down at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, where third-seeded Georgia (12-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) will face Ole Miss in a rematch.
As of Tuesday, most books had UGA listed as a 6.5-point favorite with the total in the 55.5 to 56.5 range. The Rebels were +210 on the money line.
When these teams met in Athens on Oct. 18, the Bulldogs were trailing 35-26 going into the fourth quarter as 7.5-point home favorites. RB Nate Frazier scored on a three-yard TD pass from QB Gunner Stockton to make it 35-33 with 12:56 remaining.
With 7:29 left, UGA went back ahead 40-35 on Stockton’s seven-yard scoring strike to TE Lawson Luckie. Kirby Smart’s team pulled out the spread cover thanks to Peyton Woodring’s 42-yard field goal with 2:06 remaining to give UGA a 43-35 victory.
Stockton completed 26-of-31 passes for 289 yards and four TDs without an interception. He also had 59 rushing yards and one TD on 10 attempts, while Frazier finished with 72 rushing yards on 17 carries. Luckie had five receptions for 43 yards and three TDs.
Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy was held to a season-low 31 rushing yards on 12 attempts, but he did have a pair of rushing TDs. QB Trinidad Chambliss connected on 19-of-36 throws for 263 yards and one TD without an interception. He added 42 rushing yards and two TDs on nine totes.
Ole Miss (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) has won six straight games, going 4-1-1 ATS, since taking its lone defeat in Athens. The Rebels advanced to the quarterfinals with a 41-10 win over Tulane as 16.5-point home ‘chalk’ this past Saturday.
Chambliss completed 23-of-29 passes for 282 yards and one TD without an interception. He added 36 rushing yards and two TDs on six carries, while Lacy finished with 87 rushing yards and one TD on 15 attempts.
Lacy had to leave the game with a shoulder injury, but new head coach Pete Golding didn’t seem overly concerned about his status vs. UGA at his postgame presser.
PREDICTIONS: I’m on UGA -6.5 risking 2.2 units to win two. I’m also on Texas Tech +2 risking 1.1 units to win one and UGA-Ole Miss ‘over’ 55.5 points for one unit (risking 1.1 units).