DraftKings has released the numbers for the sides in all four of the hypothetical matchups for the finals of the College Football Playoff. The two semifinal winners will collide at NRG Stadium in Houston on Jan. 8.
We discussed the semifinals earlier this week, and now let’s talk about the potential games we could see in H-Town.
If Alabama advances past Michigan, DraftKings has the Crimson Tide installed as a six-point favorite vs. Washington and a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Texas.
Nick Saban’s team would be in revenge mode if the Longhorns get past Washington. That’s because Texas went into Tuscaloosa in Week 2 and beat Alabama 34-24 as a seven-point road underdog.
At that time, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was making just his third career start. He has vastly improved since completing 14-of-27 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns with two costly interceptions vs. Texas.
In Alabama’s past eight games, Milroe has a 17/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the Tide’s last nine contests, he has 10 rushing TDs.
Milroe had 155 rushing yards and four TDs on 20 carries in a 42-28 home win over LSU. He also had 107 rushing yards on 18 attempts to go with a pair of TD passes in a 27-24 comeback win in the Iron Bowl.
On Sept. 9 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Texas QB Quinn Ewers connected on 24-of-38 throws for 349 yards and three TDs without an interception. Jonathon Brooks, who tore his ACL last month and is done for the season, had 57 rushing yards and one TD on 14 totes.
Texas WR Xavier Worthy had five catches for 75 yards and one TD at Alabama. Worthy, who has 73 receptions for 969 yards and five TDs this year, left the Big 12 Championship Game with an injured foot and/or ankle. He returned to the sidelines on crutches with his foot/ankle in a walking boot. Worthy has been dubbed as ‘questionable’ vs. Washington.
With the CFP finals being played in Houston, oddsmakers are probably giving Texas a point (or two, or more?) toward the line because it undoubtedly would have the most fans in the stadium.
Nevertheless, I would be on ‘Bama at -3 or fewer. As for laying six to Washington, that would be a pass for me if both the Huskies and Crimson Tide get out of the semifinals without significant injuries.
I just have zero desire to lay points against Washington. Since head coach Kalen DeBoer took the job, the Huskies have won outright in all four games when they’ve been underdogs. Going back to his final season at Fresno St. in 2021 when the Bulldogs won at UCLA as 11-point underdogs and easily covered at Oregon (as 20.5-point ‘dogs in a 31-24 loss), DeBoer’s teams are 6-0 ATS with five outright wins in their last six games as ‘dogs.
If Michigan makes its first appearance in the CFP Finals, DraftKings has Jim Harbaugh’s squad as a three-point favorite vs. Texas and a 6.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Washington. I would like the Longhorns and Huskies in both of those spots.
However, I don’t see those games happening (bets at DraftKings become no-plays if a matchup doesn’t come to fruition) because I’m all about the Tide as a small underdog vs. Michigan.
Again, these lines are available to wager on right now if you have a DraftKings account and are in a legal state. Based on injuries and performance in the semifinals, these numbers will likely be different when the books open once the CFP finals matchup materializes.
Therefore, if you know you like a certain team at the number that’s currently available, you should by all means get in there right away.
What are the pros and cons of doing so? Well, a pro for betting Alabama -2.5 vs. Texas would be if any number of things happen in the semifinals. For instance, if Worthy doesn’t play vs. Washington and is deemed ‘doubtful’ or ‘out’ vs Alabama. If Milroe leads Alabama to a 35-10 win over Michigan and the Tide gets out of the game injury free.
If ‘Bama thumps Michigan and Texas needs overtime to slip past Washington while Worthy is in street clothes, I could see the Tide moving to a 3.5 or four-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Longhorns.
A con of buying one team or another is if a team wins, but its QB also gets injured and can’t play in the CFP finals. Let’s say a gambler takes Washington +6.5 vs. Michigan ahead of the semifinals. If Michael Penix tears his ACL midway through the fourth quarter with the Huskies leading Texas 28-17 and they hold on to win, then we might see Washington catching a double-digit number against Michigan or ‘Bama in the finals.
DraftKings currently has Michigan as the +185 ‘chalk’ to win the national title. Alabama has +200 odds, followed by Texas (+265) and Washington (+750).
DraftKings also has a prop for the ‘exact result’ of the CFP finals. The favored outcome is Michigan defeats Texas at +350. The next-shortest odds are +425 for an outcome of Alabama beating Texas.
Next, it’s Texas beating Michigan (+550), Michigan beating Washington (+550), Texas beating ‘Bama (+600) and ‘Bama defeating Washington (+650).
Finally, DraftKings has one more prop for the CFP Finalists. The ‘chalk’ is Michigan vs. Texas at +180 odds. Next, it’s Texas vs. ‘Bama (+210), Michigan vs. Washington (+360) and Washington vs. ‘Bama (+400).