The 2019 college football regular season is officially in the books, and bowl games are set to begin today. There is a lot of noise and more than a few distracting narratives to pick through when looking for winners during bowl season.
Sure, coaching changes matter, as does motivation, travel and rest. Nevertheless, the most important factor in determining which team will win or lose will always be talent.
But there is also an additional layer to talent evaluation in modern bowl games: players opting to sit out ahead of the NFL Draft. Fortunately, one of our three talent metrics – CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength – uses updated roster information including injuries, transfers, and players sitting out in its calculations.
Though the average 247Sports Composite player ratings and the 247Sports Team Talent Composite don’t go into that high level of detail, both are still very valuable determining which matchups provide large gaps in talent, or a hidden talent advantage not reflected by oddsmakers or the market.
Using that trio of talent metrics as our guide, our Best Bets have posted a 69-58-3 (54.3 percent) record against the spread this season. Following a 2-1 performance during conference championship weekend, our picks are 54-34-3 ATS (61.4 percent) since Week 5. And with 40 bowl game matchups now available, we have 12 Best Bets to offer to close 2019.
FRIDAY, DEC. 20
Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Charlotte
Roster Strength: Charlotte 80.38 (85), Buffalo 77.39 (116)
247Sports Rating: Buffalo .7751 (117), Charlotte .7728 (120)
Team Talent Composite: Charlotte 386.38 (109), Buffalo 284.74 (126)
Frisco Bowl
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State
Roster Strength: Utah State 79.56 (92), Kent State 77.46 (115)
247Sports Rating: Kent State .7799 (108), Utah State .7727 (122)
Team Talent Composite: Utah State 424.16 (97), Kent State 313.22 (123)
SATURDAY, DEC. 21
New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State (-3.5)
Roster Strength: Central Michigan 80.81 (79), San Diego State 79.98 (89)
247Sports Rating: San Diego State .8030 (78), Central Michigan .7967 (87)
Team Talent Composite: San Diego State 504.19 (77), Central Michigan 416.63 (99)
Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern (-4)
Roster Strength: Georgia Southern 80.55 (82), Liberty 79.21 (96)
247Sports Rating: Georgia Southern .7821 (105), Liberty .7352 (130)
Team Talent Composite: Georgia Southern 411.80 (102), Liberty 153.48 (133)
Boca Raton Bowl
SMU (-3) at FAU
Roster Strength: SMU 86.17 (20), FAU 81.72 (71)
247Sports Rating: SMU .8101 (72), FAU .7990 (85)
Team Talent Composite: SMU 565.15 (64), FAU 524.02 (75)
Camellia Bowl
FIU at Arkansas State (-2.5)
Roster Strength: FIU 82.59 (64), Arkansas State 78.80 (103)
247Sports Rating: FIU .7997 (83), Arkansas State .7922 (93)
Team Talent Composite: FIU 532.88 (73), Arkansas State 447.87 (93)
Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State vs. Washington (-3.5)
Roster Strength: Washington 87.92 (9), Boise State 80.37 (86)
247Sports Rating: Washington .8859 (13), Boise State .8213 (67)
Team Talent Composite: Washington 801.33 (19), Boise State 561.42 (67)
New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State (-16.5) vs. UAB
Roster Strength: Appalachian State 83.22 (53), UAB 78.14 (108)
247Sports Rating: UAB .7842 (101), Appalachian State .7776 (115)
Team Talent Composite: UAB 441.81 (94), Appalachian State 412.32 (101)
MONDAY, DEC. 23
Gasparilla Bowl
UCF (-17) vs. Marshall
Roster Strength: UCF 84.95 (35), Marshall 80.75 (80)
247Sports Rating: UCF .8292 (60), Marshall .7997 (84)
Team Talent Composite: UCF 598.57 (54), Marshall 489.63 (79)
TUESDAY, DEC. 24
Hawaii Bowl
BYU (-1.5) at Hawaii
Roster Strength: BYU 79.51 (93), Hawaii 79.10 (99)
247Sports Rating: BYU .8062 (74), Hawaii .7765 (116)
Team Talent Composite: BYU 560.78 (68), Hawaii 420.99 (98)
THURSDAY, DEC. 26
Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Miami (-6)
Roster Strength: Miami 85.55 (25), Louisiana Tech 83.63 (48)
247Sports Rating: Miami .8685 (20), Louisiana Tech .8047 (75)
Team Talent Composite: Miami 815.12 (18), Louisiana Tech 501.25 (78)
Pitt (-10.5) vs. Eastern Michigan
Roster Strength: Pitt 84.35 (41), Eastern Michigan 78.36 (107)
247Sports Rating: Pitt .8519 (32), Eastern Michigan .7749 (118)
Team Talent Composite: Pitt 637.95 (42), Eastern Michigan 317.49 (121)
FRIDAY, DEC. 27
Military Bowl
North Carolina (-5) vs. Temple
Roster Strength: North Carolina 83.13 (56), Temple 81.56 (73)
247Sports Rating: North Carolina .8585 (24), Temple .8043 (76)
Team Talent Composite: North Carolina 697.75 (28), Temple 489.03 (80)
Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Wake Forest
Roster Strength: Michigan State 84.56 (38), Wake Forest 82.88 (60)
247Sports Rating: Michigan State .8531 (31), Wake Forest .8328 (54)
Team Talent Composite: Michigan State 688.74 (31), Wake Forest 563.24 (66)
Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-7)
Roster Strength: Texas A&M 86.48 (19), Oklahoma State 83.63 (49)
247Sports Rating: Texas A&M .8810 (15), Oklahoma State .8407 (45)
Team Talent Composite: Texas A&M 848.89 (12), Oklahoma State 644.42 (39)
Holiday Bowl
USC vs. Iowa (-2)
Roster Strength: USC 87.08 (10), Iowa 83.17 (55)
247Sports Rating: USC .8922 (8), Iowa .8409 (43)
Team Talent Composite: USC 915.56 (4), Iowa 637.65 (43)
Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force (-3) vs. Washington State
Roster Strength: Washington State 83.45 (51), Air Force 77.74 (110)
247Sports Rating: Washington State .8216 (66), Air Force .7428 (129)
Team Talent Composite: Washington State 556.27 (70), Air Force 151.86 (134)
SATURDAY, DEC. 28
Cotton Bowl
Memphis vs. Penn State (-6.5)
Roster Strength: Penn State 86.37 (22), Memphis 84.68 (35)
247Sports Rating: Penn State .8874 (11), Memphis .8112 (70)
Team Talent Composite: Penn State 857.34 (10), Memphis 551.97 (71)
Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame (-4) vs. Iowa State
Roster Strength: Notre Dame 87.36 (10), Iowa State 84.66 (35)
247Sports Rating: Notre Dame .8869 (12), Iowa State .8376 (47)
Team Talent Composite: Notre Dame 843.29 (14), Iowa State 597.15 (56)
Peach Bowl – College Football Playoff Semifinal
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-14)
Roster Strength: LSU 91.75 (2), Oklahoma 89.47 (5)
247Sports Rating: LSU .9045 (4), Oklahoma .8982 (5)
Team Talent Composite: LSU 906.17 (5), Oklahoma 869.53 (8)
Fiesta Bowl – College Football Playoff Semifinal
Clemson (-2) vs. Ohio State
Roster Strength: Ohio State 92.57 (1), Clemson 91.62 (3)
247Sports Rating: Ohio State .9169 (2), Clemson .8816 (14)
Team Talent Composite: Ohio State 973.56 (2), Clemson 863.03 (9)
MONDAY, DEC. 30
First Responder Bowl
WKU (-3.5) vs. Western Michigan
Roster Strength: Western Michigan 85.06 (33), WKU 80.03 (88)
247Sports Rating: Western Michigan .8018 (79), WKU .7935 (91)
Team Talent Composite: WKU 486.97 (82), Western Michigan 452.05 (90)
Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (-4) vs. Louisville
Roster Strength: Mississippi State 86.87 (13), Louisville 83.09 (57)
247Sports Rating: Mississippi State .8599 (23), Louisville .8428 (40)
Team Talent Composite: Mississippi State 732.68 (23), Louisville 645.84 (38)
Cal (-7) vs. Illinois
Roster Strength: Illinois 82.60 (63), Cal 81.32 (75)
247Sports Rating: Illinois .8370 (48), Cal .8298 (59)
Team Talent Composite: Illinois 661.73 (37), Cal 611.58 (50)
Orange Bowl
Florida (-15) vs. Virginia
Roster Strength: Florida 86.70 (16), Virginia 83.25 (54)
247Sports Rating: Florida .8885 (10), Virginia .8355 (53)
Team Talent Composite: Florida 835.68 (15), Virginia 580.28 (59)
TUESDAY, DEC. 31
Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Kentucky
Roster Strength: Virginia Tech 85.38 (27), Kentucky 84.12 (43)
247Sports Rating: Virginia Tech .8624 (22), Kentucky .8419 (41)
Team Talent Composite: Virginia Tech 696.39 (29), Kentucky 672.74 (34)
Sun Bowl
Florida State vs. Arizona State (-5)
Roster Strength: Arizona State 83.13 (39), Florida State 83.84 (46)
247Sports Rating: Florida State .8938 (6), Arizona State .8550 (28)
Team Talent Composite: Florida State 878.07 (6), Arizona State 686.44 (32)
Liberty Bowl
Navy (-2.5) vs. Kansas State
Roster Strength: Kansas State 82.53 (65), Navy 79.12 (98)
247Sports Rating: Kansas State .8107 (71), Navy .7712 (124)
Team Talent Composite: Kansas State 543.49 (72), Navy 335.40 (119)
Arizona Bowl
Wyoming (-7.5) vs. Georgia State
Roster Strength: Georgia State 78.35 (105), Wyoming 77.89 (111)
247Sports Rating: Georgia State .7852 (99), Wyoming .7811 (106)
Team Talent Composite: Wyoming 397.90 (106), Georgia State 369.05 (112)
Alamo Bowl
Utah (-7) vs. Texas
Roster Strength: Texas 87.03 (11), Utah 86.74 (16)
247Sports Rating: Texas .8938 (7), Utah .8358 (51)
Team Talent Composite: Texas 877.91 (7), Utah 620.35 (47)
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1
Sugar Bowl
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Baylor
Roster Strength: Georgia 89.61 (4), Baylor 86.77 (15)
247Sports Rating: Georgia .9136 (3), Baylor .8488 (33)
Team Talent Composite: Georgia 960.16 (3), Baylor 668.90 (35)
Outback Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn (-7)
Roster Strength: Auburn 86.40 (22), Minnesota 84.46 (40)
247Sports Rating: Auburn .8908 (9), Minnesota .8436 (39)
Team Talent Composite: Auburn 843.93 (13), Minnesota 621.36 (46)
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama (-7)
Roster Strength: Michigan 88.73 (7), Alabama 88.35 (8)
247Sports Rating: Alabama .9224 (1), Michigan .8702 (18)
Team Talent Composite: Alabama 984.96 (1), Michigan 853.40 (11)
Rose Bowl
Oregon vs. Wisconsin (-3)
Roster Strength: Oregon 88.86 (7), Wisconsin 85.33 (27)
247Sports Rating: Oregon .8690 (19), Wisconsin .8461 (36)
Team Talent Composite: Oregon 817.70 (17), Wisconsin 675.80 (33)
TUESDAY, JAN. 2
Birmingham Bowl
Boston College vs. Cincinnati (-7)
Roster Strength: Cincinnati 82.20 (65), Boston College 79.67 (92)
247Sports Rating: Boston College .8313 (57), Cincinnati .8154 (68)
Team Talent Composite: Cincinnati 576.61 (61), Boston College 564.95 (65)
Gator Bowl
Indiana vs. Tennessee (-2)
Roster Strength: Tennessee 87.37 (12), Indiana 82.96 (58)
247Sports Rating: Tennessee .8802 (16), Indiana .8438 (38)
Team Talent Composite: Tennessee 830.34 (16), Indiana 603.81 (53)
FRIDAY, JAN. 3
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (-7.5) vs. Nevada
Roster Strength: Ohio 78.12 (109), Nevada 77.13 (117)
247Sports Rating: Nevada .7730 (119), Ohio .7728 (121)
Team Talent Composite: Nevada 461.96 (87), Ohio 337.17 (118)
SATURDAY, JAN. 4
Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Tulane (-7)
Roster Strength: Tulane 81.90 (67), Southern Miss 80.11 (86)
247Sports Rating: Tulane .8016 (81), Southern Miss .7843 (100)
Team Talent Composite: Tulane 486.98 (81), Southern Miss 456.29 (89)
MONDAY, JAN. 6
Lendingtree Bowl
Louisiana (-14) vs. Miami OH
Roster Strength: Louisiana 79.71 (90), Miami OH 76.75 (119)
247Sports Rating: Miami OH .7969 (86), Louisiana .7808 (107)
Team Talent Composite: Louisiana 406.49 (103), Miami OH 359.14 (113)
BEST BETS
Charlotte +6.5
FIU +2.5
Washington -3.5
USC +2
Washington State +3
Oklahoma +14
Ohio State +2
Western Michigan +3.5
Illinois +7
Kansas State +2.5
Georgia State +7.5
Texas +7
Tennessee -2
Nevada +7.5
*All lines as of Thursday, Dec. 19