The finals for the first 12-team College Football Playoff are set. With Notre Dame besting Penn St. in a thriller and Ohio St. holding off Texas in the semifinals, the Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes will collide on Monday, Jan. 20, at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
As of early Sunday afternoon, most books had Ohio St. installed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 or 46. Marcus Freeman’s team was in the +285 to +315 (Circa) range on the money line.
For first-half wagers, Ryan’s Day’s squad was a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 23 or 23.5. The Irish had +220 money-line odds.
Notre Dame (14-1 straight up, 13-2 against the spread) extended its winning streak to 13 games on Jan. 9 when it beat Penn St. 27-24 as a one-point underdog thanks to Mitch Jeter’s 41-yard field goal with seven seconds remaining. The Irish have now covered the spread in 11 consecutive contests.
The 51 combined points went ‘over’ the 45.5-point total when Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard found Jaden Greathouse for a 54-yard TD pass with 4:38 left to tie the score at 24-24. Bettors on the ‘under’ were extremely disappointed since the score was tied at 10-10 going into the fourth quarter.
PSU jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter on a 20-yard field goal by Ryan Barker and a five-yard TD run by Nicholas Singleton. Notre Dame got on the board on Jeter’s 41-yard field goal on the final play of the first quarter.
With 10:46 left in the third quarter, Leonard’s three-yard TD run tied the game at 10-10. The Irish took a 17-10 lead on Jeremiyah Love’s two-yard TD plunge with 14:07 remaining.
PSU answered when Singleton found paydirt again on a seven-yard TD scamper with 10:20 left. The Nittany Lions surged back in front on another seven-yard TD run by Singleton with 7:55 remaining.
The Leonard-Greathouse connection created the third tie of the game. Next, the Irish forced a three and out. They moved into enemy territory and were in a second-and-five situation with 59 seconds left from PSU’s 44.
However, the drive stalled from there on an incomplete pass and a Penn St. sack. The Nittany Lions took back over with 38 seconds left on their own 15. Singleton gave his team more room to operate with a 13-yard run out to the 28.
But on the next play, PSU QB Drew Allar didn’t have anything on his first two progressions. At that point, he should’ve thrown the ball away or gone down protecting the football. Instead, he fired into tight coverage to his right and was intercepted by Christian Gay at the PSU 42.
After Leonard gained seven yards on a pair of runs to set up a third-and-three play, he found Greathouse again for a 10-yard gain to set up Jeter’s game winner.
Leonard was intercepted twice, but he threw for 223 yards and one TD. Love had 45 rushing yards and one TD on 11 attempts, and Greathouse had seven receptions for 105 yards and one TD.
In the losing effort, Singleton had 84 rushing yards and three TDs on 15 carries, while Kaytron Allen had 82 rushing yards on 19 totes. Allar completed just 12-of-23 throws for 135 yards with one interception.
Ohio St. (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) got a pair of monster plays that proved to be the difference in a 28-14 win over Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX. The Buckeyes took the cash as 5.5-point favorites, while the 42 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 51.5-point tally.
Day’s team opened the scoring on a nine-yard TD run by Quinshon Judkins for a 7-0 lead midway through the opening stanza. Texas pulled even at 7-7 on an 18-yard TD pass from Quinn Ewers to Jaydon Blue with 29 seconds left in the first half.
When the Buckeyes took over, they called a screen pass to TreVeyon Henderson, who turned the short throw into a 75-yard TD reception as he darted through the Longhorns’ defense untouched.
Steve Sarkisian’s team tied it up again at 14-14 with 3:12 left in the third quarter on a 26-yard TD pass from Ewers to Blue. But Ohio St. took the lead back on a one-yard TD run by Judkins with 7:02 remaining.
After gaining a quick first down on its next drive, Texas advanced to OSU’s 25 on a 34-yard pass from Ewers to Gunnar Helm. Next, Ewers found Matthew Golden for a 27-yard pass.
Several plays later, Ohio St. was flagged for pass interference on a third-and-three play to get up first and goal for the Longhorns at OSU’s 2. Another PI call on the Buckeyes on the next play advanced the ball to the 1.
After Jerrick Gibson was stuffed for no gain on first and goal, Sark called a deep pitch to the left for Quintrevion Wisner, who was stopped for a seven-yard loss on a great play by Ohio St. safety Caleb Downs.
After Ewers threw an incomplete pass on third and goal, he was sacked by Jack Sawyer, who forced a fumble and scooped it up and ran 83 yards for a game-sealing TD.
Ohio St. QB Will Howard completed 24-of-33 passes for 289 yards and one TD with one interception. Carnell Tate had seven catches for 87 receiving yards.
Sonny Styles led the Buckeyes’ defense with a game-high nine tackles to go with three tackles for loss and one sack. JT Tuimoloau had seven tackles, 2.5 TFL’s and 1.5 sacks.
In 2022 and 2023, Ohio St. and Notre Dame faced each other in September. When they squared off in South Bend last season, the Buckeyes won a 17-14 decision as 3.5-point road favorites.
In the 2022 season opener, Ohio St. outscored the Irish 14-0 in the second half to pull away for a 21-10 win. However, Notre Dame hooked up its betting backers as a 15-point road underdog.
Notre Dame has overcome injuries all season long, and it will have to do so again vs. Ohio St. Starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp will miss the CFP finals after sustaining a high ankle sprain in the win over PSU.
PREDICTION: We aren’t getting the best of the number at this point, but I still like Notre Dame +8.5 points for one unit.