Published on Thursday, 11/20/25, at 5:39 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Friday, 11/21/25, at 12:46 p.m. Eastern.
The Florida-Tennessee rivalry annually decided the SEC East when these teams would meet in mid-to-late September back in the 1990s. Although Georgia started having a say in who would represent the SEC East in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December once Mark Richt became its head coach, the Florida-Tennessee showdown remained pivotal into the 2000s, and it continued to be played in September.
However, much has changed in the league in recent years. The Gators have been a non-factor in the SEC since their last appearance in Atlanta during the 2020 campaign, as Scott Stricklin’s incompetent hire of Billy Napier has led to losses galore.
Side Note: How/why in the hell is UF allowing Stricklin to make a third hire when he fired the first two coaches he hired in their fourth season?! Stricklin’s resume includes the worst coaching hire in SEC football history (Napier) and the worst hire in SEC basketball annals (Rick Ray when he was at Mississippi St.)
Since 1992, the UF-UT game has been in September every season except for four (Dec. 1 in 2001 after the 9/11 tragedy pushed the game back, Oct. 4 in 2014, Dec. 5 of 2020 due to the global pandemic and Oct. 12 last year), but the Gators and Volunteers are squaring off in November this year.
As of Friday afternoon, most books had Tennessee (7-3 straight up, 3-6-1 against the spread) installed as a four-point favorite with the total in the 56.5 to 57.5 range. UF was in the +154 to +170 neighborhood on the money line.
The Vols haven’t tasted victory at The Swamp since 2003. In fact, their consecutive wins in 2001 and 2003 with QB Casey Clausen under center are the only times they’ve won in Gainesville since 1971.
When these teams met at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville last season, Napier was working on his Mona Lisa. He somehow found a way to call plays that produced a grand total of three points in the first half despite five trips into UT territory and four drives into the red zone.
Florida (3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) had an 11-play, 72-yard drive that chewed up more than six minutes of clock. The result? Napier called a jet sweep to wide receiver Eugene Wilson on a fourth-and-one play that was stuffed.
On UF’s next possession, senior RB Montrell Johnson had a 23-yard run and a 13-yard gain set the Gators up with a first-and-goal situation at UT’s 1. At that point, I said out loud, “give it to Montrell four straight times if that’s what it takes.”
Instead, Napier called a QB sneak on first down and QB Graham Mertz fumbled, with UT’s James Pearce recovering. Next, Napier produced a sequence that would’ve made Les Miles blush.
UF’s Sharif Denson intercepted UT’s Nico Iamaleava and returned the pick 20 yards to the Vols 26. A personal-foul penalty was tacked on to the play to give the Gators a first down at the 11 with 1:11 remaining. (UF had only one timeout left since Napier had wasted two earlier in the half because he was late getting the play calls in to his QB.)
After a false start pushed UF back five yards, guess what happened? You nailed it: Napier burned his last timeout (when the clock wasn’t running) because UF was about to get a delay of game because he didn’t get the play call in early enough (again!).
On second and 15, Mertz hit Wilson for a one-yard gain. Tick, tick, tick…
On third and 14, Mertz was sacked with 19 seconds left. The Gators had to rush the field-goal team onto the field, barely getting the play off and the field goal was good.
But wait! There was a flag. UF was called for a substitution infraction. Since UF was out of timeouts, it called for a 10-second runoff, ending the half with UF only ahead 3-0 despite four red-zone opportunities.
(VINTAGE BILLY BOB!)
Tennessee eventually captured a 23-17 win in overtime for only its third victory over Florida since 2005. The Gators are 17-3 SU in the last 20 head-to-head meetings, including 12 wins by double-digit margins. They’re 4-0 ATS in the last four encounters and 7-1 ATS vs. the Vols in the last eight contests in this storied rivalry.
Despite its struggles in recent years, Florida is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. The lone defeat was an 18-16 setback vs. South Florida in Week 2 of this season.
UF has lost three straight games, but it is 2-1 ATS in that stretch. The Gators had the lead in the fourth quarter in losses vs. Georgia and at Ole Miss.
The Rebels won a 34-24 decision over UF in Oxford last weekend before a record crowd at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, but the Gators took the cash as 11.5-point road underdogs. The 58 combined points went ‘over’ the 53-point total when RB Kewan Lacy scored on a four-yard touchdown run with 1:43 remaining.
Florida QB DJ Lagway completed 16-of-31 passes for 218 yards and one TD with one interception. He added 34 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts.
Lagway had a solid performance for the most part, but he made a critical mistake that completely flipped the game. With UF facing a third-and-five play from the Ole Miss 30 while trailing 27-24 with 9:11 remaining, Lagway dropped back to pass.
From my view about 50 rows up in the corner of the end zone behind the play, there was running room galore to Lagway’s left as he dropped back to pass. Lagway saw the open space late and started to run.
But due to his hesitation, he wasn’t sure if he’d get the first down by the time he broke the pocket. That would’ve been okay, though, as UF could’ve gone for it on a fourth-and-short play or kicked a tying field goal.
As Lagway was about to cross the line of scrimmage, he suddenly decided to throw across his body, and it was predictably intercepted.
For the season, Lagway has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 1,980 yards with a 12/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 13 picks are the most in the SEC and the second-most of any FBS signal caller.
UF was playing without its three best WRs. Dallas Wilson and Eugen Wilson are both out of the season, and Vernell Brown has missed most of the last three games due to a shoulder injury. He played sparingly in the loss to Kentucky, making one catch for 22 yards.
Brown, who has 33 receptions for 473 yards in eight games this season, was listed as ‘questionable’ on Wednesday’s initial SEC Availability Report, which didn’t include the name of DT Caleb Banks for the first time in months.
Banks, who was a preseason All-American in every publication and a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft this past summer, has only played in one game this season. He left that game, a 20-10 loss at LSU, early with a foot injury.
Banks actually dressed out last week but didn’t play. He’ll be in the starting lineup vs. the Vols, though.
Josh Heupel’s squad is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this year. The Vols lost 37-20 at Alabama, but they won 41-34 in overtime at Mississippi St. and collected a 56-34 win at Kentucky.
PREDICTION: I’ll risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on Florida +4.5 (BetMGM). Let’s also risk 0.5 units to win 0.85 units for the Gators on the money line for a +170 payout (Circa).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-DraftKings has Florida listed as a 1.5-point home favorite vs. FSU next weekend.
–I’m still baffled with the fact that the refs threw this flag and inexplicably (without any explanation!) waved it off. This play was right in front of me. He was there way early, that was obvious in real time, and I didn’t need to see a replay to know that.
-DraftKings has Alabama as a 6.5-point road favorite for next week’s Iron Bowl at Auburn, and the betting shop has Ole Miss as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk’ at Mississippi St. for the Egg Bowl on Black Friday.
-You can hear my opinions on all of the Week 13 SEC games in my Bets & Ballgames podcast for Southeastern 16.
–I’m betting several player props in the Arkansas at Texas showdown, and you can see those here.
–I also have several picks for Kentucky at Vandy.
–NC St. is a 6.5-point home underdog vs. FSU tonight, and I’m on Dave Doeren’s team for one unit. The Seminoles are 0-3 both SU and ATS in three road contests this season. NC St. has won three in a row in this rivalry and five of the last six. The Wolfpack are 8-2 ATS with six outright wins in its last 10 games as a home underdog since 2020. They’re also one of only three teams in the country (Indiana and Alabama are the other two) who have four wins over teams with at least seven wins (Wake Forest, East Carolina, Ga. Tech and Virginia).
-Both FanDuel and DraftKings have Georgia as a 12.5-point favorite next week vs. Ga. Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. I like the Yellow Jackets, who are 17-6 ATS with 13 outright wins in 23 games as underdogs during Brent Key’s tenure, catching the points for one unit. I also like one-unit plays on Pitt +8.5 vs. Miami (FanDuel) and Vandy +4.5 at Tennessee (DraftKings).
-Texas LB Anthony Hill is ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Arkansas.
-UF’s Brown remained ‘questionable’ on Thursday’s SEC Availability Report.
-Missouri QB Beau Pribula was upgraded from ‘doubtful’ to ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s showdown at Oklahoma on Thursday night’s SEC Availability Report. Pribula has missed the last two games, a loss vs. Texas A&M and a win over Mississippi St., since sustaining a dislocated ankle on Oct. 25 in a loss at Vanderbilt. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Friday afternoon that Pribula looked good at today’s practice and is tracking to start in Norman.