As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Vanderbilt (6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Missouri. The total was in the 52.5 to 53.5 range, while the Tigers were +120 on the money line at most shops.
Vandy bounced back from its first loss of the season at Alabama on Oct. 4 by beating LSU 31-24 as a 1.5-point home ‘chalk’ last week. As usual, senior quarterback Diego Pavia was the catalyst, rushing for a team-best 86 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 17 attempts.
Pavia completed 14-of-22 passes for 160 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Makhilyn Young had 82 rushing yards on just five carries, while RB Sedrick Alexander added 45 rushing yards and one TD on 14 totes. TE Cole Spence was targeted five times and brought in five receptions for 56 yards and one TD.
The Commodores had a 20-14 edge in first downs, a 399-325 advantage in total yards and had 13 more minutes of time of possession compared to the Tigers.
Missouri (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) was also in bounce-back mode for the first time this year when it played at Auburn in its first road assignment of the season. Eli Drinkwitz’s squad won a 23-17 decision as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ in double overtime, with the 40 combined points going ‘under’ the 44-point total.
Missouri QB Beau Pribula ran for a three-yard TD in double OT to give his team a 23-17 lead. The Tigers failed on their two-point conversion attempt, but they got a fourth-down stop on Auburn’s offense to seal the deal on The Plains.
RB Ahmad Hardy was limited to 58 rushing yards on 24 carries, but he had a pair of TD runs, including the tying score with 5:07 left in regulation. Pribula completed 23-of-40 throws for 252 yards, but he didn’t have a TD pass and was intercepted twice. He’s thrown four interceptions in the last two games and seven in the last five contests.
For the season, Pribula is connecting on 70.0 percent of his passes for 1,622 yards with an 11/7 TD-INT ratio. He has 210 rushing yards, five TDs and a 3.1 yards-per-carry average.
As for Hardy, the transfer from ULM has 840 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.0 YPC average. Backup RB Jamal Roberts is enjoying a breakout campaign as well, rushing for 406 yards and three TDs while averaging 7.3 YPC. He also has 11 catches for 111 yards and one TD.
Missouri is 8-8 ATS in 16 games as a road underdog during Drinkwitz’s six-year tenure. The Tigers went 3-12 SU in their first 15 road games under Drinkwitz from 2020-22, but they’ve won six of their last 10 road contests.
Missouri is 27-6 SU in its last 33 games dating back to the 2023 season opener. The Tigers have won five straight head-to-head meetings over Vandy and eight of the last nine. However, the Commodores are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this rivalry.
Clark Lea’s team will be in revenge mode after dropping a 30-27 decision at Missouri in double overtime last season. Vandy easily covered the number as a 17.5-point road underdog.
Pavia completed 14-of-23 passes for 178 yards and two TDs without an interception. He added a team-high 84 rushing yards on 17 attempts. TE Eli Stowers had seven receptions for 57 yards.
Vandy is unbeaten in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. The Commodores own five wins by margins of 20 points of more.
Pavia has completed 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,569 yards with a 15/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s added 438 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
In his storied career that includes two seasons at New Mexico St. and 1.5 at Vandy (not exactly the most powerful juggernaut football programs in recent decades), Pavia now has 8,285 career passing yards, a 74/23 TD-INT ratio, 2,674 rushing yards and 25 rushing TDs.
PREDICTION: I’ve always believed in Pavia and my belief in this team is growing with each week. The back-to-back road spot for Missouri isn’t ideal, especially after playing an overtime game at night last week. Vandy has the best player on the field and homefield advantage. I’ll risk 2.75 units to win 2.5 units on Vandy -2.5 vs. Mizzou.
I also have a wager on a player prop that you can check out here.
You can also check out the Mizzou at Vandy segment of my podcast with Jay Greeson for Southeastern 16 here.