Let’s get gamblers ready for another fantastic Saturday slate in college hoops with lots of notes, stats, injury updates and picks.
-Texas A&M (19-5 straight up, 13-9-2 against the spread) will play host to Arkansas at noon Eastern on ESPN. The Aggies are tied with the Gators for third place in the SEC, as both teams are two games back of the conference’s co-leaders, Alabama and Auburn. I made A&M -8.5, and that’s the number DraftKings opened up with for Buzz Williams’s team. Therefore, this game is a pass for me. Texas A&M trailed Georgia 32-23 at halftime Tuesday night in College Station. I backed the Aggies -7.5 in the second half, and they hooked me up with a winner by outscoring UGA 46-21 in the final 20 minutes of a 69-53 win as eight-point home favorites. In Joe Lunardi’s latest installment of ‘Bracketology’ released Friday morning on ESPN.com, Georgia was the ‘last team in’ the 68-team field. Texas A&M was the #2 seed in the West Region.
-Speaking of the West Region, Lunardi has the Florida Gators as the #1 seed. For all the latest on Todd Golden’s team, check out my by-line from earlier Friday ahead of Saturday’s home game vs. South Carolina at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
-Lunardi’s Last Four Byes include West Virginia, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas. The Last Four In are San Diego St., BYU, Arkansas and Georgia. He has VCU, SMU, Wake Forest and North Carolina among his First Four Out. Finally, Lunardi’s Next Four Out include Xavier, Indiana, Kansas St. and Boise St. The Demon Deacons killed their resume by blowing a 16-point lead in the second half of Wednesday’s home loss vs. FSU. They’re listed as seven-point road underdogs Saturday at SMU. Boise St. can get a much-needed Quad-1 road win Saturday at San Diego St.
-FanDuel opened Missouri (18-6 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a 1.5-point road underdog for Saturday’s showdown at Georgia on the SEC Network at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. I was stunned to see UGA as the favorite, but DraftKings opened the Tigers as 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Dennis Gates’s team is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in SEC play. Meanwhile, UGA is slumping in recent weeks, going 2-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. The Bulldogs’ only wins during this stretch came at home over South Carolina and LSU, who have combined for only one SEC win this season. UGA’s Tyrin Lawrence (8.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.2 SPG) will miss a second straight game due to a hamstring issue. I like Missouri -1.5 at UGA for 1.5 units. Let’s also back the Tigers -1 in the first half for 0.5 units.
-Alabama (21-3 SU, 14-10 ATS) will take on Auburn at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. DraftKings opened the Crimson Tide as a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 172.5. ‘Bama is 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS in 11 home games. However, Nate Oats’s team has won its home games by margins of 21, 7, 16, 28, 23, 27, 8, 8, 9 and 56 points. The Tide’s smallest spreads at home have been -11 to Creighton (in an 8-point win) and -11.5 to Vandy in a 103-87 victory. These bitter rivals split a pair of head-to-head meetings last season, with Alabama winning a 79-75 decision to push as a four-point home ‘chalk.’ The 154 combined dropped ‘under’ the 161.5-point total. Mark Sears was the catalyst for the winners with 22 points, eight assists, five rebounds and three steals. In the losing effort, Johni Broome had 25 points, 14 rebounds and five blocked shots in only 26 minutes of playing time before fouling out. When they played at Auburn, Bruce Pearl’s team captured a 99-81 win as a six-point home favorite. Broome led the way with 24 points, seven boards and five blocks. Auburn (22-2 SU, 15-9 ATS) is an underdog for just the third time this year. The Tigers are 1-1 both SU and ATS in the two prior instances. They beat Houston 74-69 as 5.5-point underdogs and lost 84-78 at Duke as 3.5-point ‘dogs. The ‘under’ is 12-11-1 overall for ‘Bama, going 8-3 in its home games. The Tide’s games are averaging combined scores of 169.0 points per game. They lead the nation in scoring with their 90.5 PPG average. The ‘over’ is 14-10 overall for Auburn, 4-1 in its last five games, but this is its highest total of the season. AU has had several totals in the 156-157 range, but its highest previous number was 167.5 points vs. UNC at the Maui Classic. The ‘under’ cashed in the Tigers’ 85-72 win over the Tar Heels. Broome was able to take advantage of Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle down low in last year’s meetings. He’ll have a more difficult time going up against Cliff Omoruyi, who has been one of the nation’s premier interior defenders over the last four years. I like Alabama -1.5 for two units.
–Here’s more of my analysis for Auburn at Alabama with Chattanooga Times Free Press columnist Jay Greeson in our Bets & Ballgames podcast for Southeastern 16. Feel free to subscribe to the Southeastern 16 YouTube channel.
You can hear the entire edition of the podcast here at this link, as Greeson and I preview all eight of Saturday’s SEC games.
-Kentucky will be without two starters in Saturday’s game at Texas. Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are both ‘out’ against the Longhorns. Butler averages 12.5 points, 4.6 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Robinson (13.3 PPG) is missing a second straight game. Texas power forward Arthur Kaluma, who averages 12.9 points and 7.9 RPG, is listed as ‘doubtful.’
-I had a lot of success fading the Miami Hurricanes (6-18 SU, 7-17 ATS) this season. But after three straight spread covers, they’ve been removed from my FADE LIST. In fact, Pitt (14-10 SU, 12-12 ATS) has been added to the FADE LIST, and that’s who Miami plays tomorrow as a 12.5-point road underdog, per FanDuel, at noon Eastern. The Panthers have lost four games in a row and eight of their last 10. They’re 1-3 both SU and ATS in their last four home games, including a 73-57 loss to Virginia as 12.5-point home favorites. I’m on Miami +12.5 (at a -105 price) for one unit.
-Kansas St. (13-11 SU, 14-10 ATS) has won six games in a row, including a 73-70 home win over Arizona, an 81-73 home win over Kansas, an 80-61 win at Iowa St., an 85-57 home win over Oklahoma St. and a 73-60 home win over West Va. The Wildcats are on a 9-0 ATS roll, going 7-0 ATS with four outright wins in their last seven games as underdogs. Jerome Tang’s team is in Joe Lunardi’s Next Four Out in his latest edition of ‘Bracketology’ that was updated on Friday morning. K-St. is coming to Provo to win outright, and I like its chances to do so. I’m betting Kansas St. +6 for 1.5 units, and I’m also on K-St. on the money line at +210 odds (DraftKings) for 0.5 units (to win 1.05 units).
–I cashed an easy winner on ‘over’ 152.5 points for Thursday’s South Dakota St. at Omaha game when the Jackrabbits won 98-85. The game went ‘over’ with 5:55 remaining. Let’s go with one unit today on ‘over’ 157.5 or 158 points for Omaha at St. Thomas (MN.). Why, you ask? Well, the ‘over’ is on a 10-3 run for the Mavericks in their last 13 games. In six of Omaha’s last seven contests, it’s had combined scores of 183, 159, 157, 178, 160 and 167 points. When these teams met on Jan. 23, Omaha won an 89-78 decision with the 167 combined points flying ‘over’ the 154-point total. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 16-6-1 overall clip for St. Thomas. The Tommies are ranked #3 nationally in field-goal percentage (50.0%), #6 in 3-point accuracy (39.7%), #12 in scoring (84.4 PPG) and #20 in free-throw percentage (77.9%). Their games are averaging combined scores of 159.7 PPG. This game tips at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
-Robert Morris (19-8 SU, 20-5 ATS) has won nine of its last 10 games while compiling a 10-0 ATS record. The Colonials are 2.5-point home favorites vs. Purdue Fort Wayne at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. The Mastodons beat Robert Morris 82-77 on Dec. 8, but the Colonials covered the number as 9.5-point road underdogs.
-Looking ahead to a 3:00 p.m. Eastern tip on Sunday afternoon, Northwestern will play host to Nebraska. The ‘over’ is on a 14-0 run for the Wildcats, who are mired in a 1-5 slump both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive games for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had their four-game winning streak both SU and ATS snapped in Thursday’s 83-75 loss to Maryland as one-point home underdogs. Fred Hoiberg’s team was playing without Berke Buyuktuncel, who is dealing with an ankle injury and is ‘questionable’ at Northwestern. He averages 7.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.7 blocked shots per game. KenPom’s projection has Northwestern winning, 71-70. IF the total ends up being 144 points or fewer, I will want the ‘over’ for one unit. Let’s hope that it’s lower than 144. Thirteen of Northwestern’s 14 straight ‘overs’ have had at least 144 combined points, and Nebraska’s last five games have had combined scores of 148 points or more.
-Likewise, the ‘over’ is on a 14-0 run for Temple in its last 14 games going into Sunday’s home game vs. FAU. KenPom’s projection has the Owls winning, 82-81, so that’s a forecasted total of 163 points. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in FAU’s last five games.
–Here’s an update on my documented picks record at VegasInsider. Those numbers were going into Friday night’s action when I only had one play – a winner on UCLA. Therefore, my college basketball picks are now on a 19-7 run (73.1% +11.24 units) since Feb. 1. In the last 56 plays dating back to Jan. 18, my college hoops selections are 38-18 (67.9%, +18.13 units).
-On the documented records page on VI, you can use the pull-down menus to adjust sports and time frames to view specific results. You can the game-by-game results if you scroll down further to the second set of pull-down menus.
–If you’ve been successfully tailing my plays and want to offer a tip, feel free to do so. Many thanks!
-Please check back again mid-to-late morning tomorrow, as I’ll be providing updated injury news as it breaks before the games. Best of luck to all with your bets!