NCAA Tournament Betting Pick: FAU vs. Northwestern

NCAA Tournament Betting Pick: FAU vs. Northwestern

As of Friday morning, most books had Florida Atlantic installed as a four or 4.5-point favorite vs. Northwestern in today’s first-round showdown at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. The total was up to 143.5 after spending most of the week in the 141-142 range.

The Wildcats were in the +155 to +168 range on the money line.

The ‘over’ has hit in four straight FAU games that have netted combined scores of 147, 148, 176 and 156 points. Although the Owls’ three previous games went ‘under,’ those contests had combined scores of 152, 152 and 150 points. In fact, FAU has had at least 147 combined points in 12 consecutive contests.

In 24 of FAU’s 33 games this year, there have been at least 143 combined points. The Owls are ranked #15 nationally in scoring with their 83.0 points-per-game average. They’re ranked #31 in FG percentage (47.9%) and #65 in 3-point accuracy (36.2%).

FAU is ranked #231 in the country in scoring defense (73.3 PPG). Therefore, the Owls’ games have averaged combined scores of 156.3 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 18-8 for Northwestern in its last 26 games. The Wildcats are ranked eighth nationally in 3-point accuracy (39.6%).

PREDICTION: I personally bet FAU-Northwestern ‘over’141 points early in the week. Although I hate endorsing a play when the best of the number is gone, I still like it to go ‘over’ at 143.5 points for one unit. I lean FAU on the side, but I’m not going to play it at -4 or -4.5.