As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Florida Gators (35-4 straight up, 28-11 against the spread) installed as one-point favorites vs. the Houston Cougars in tonight’s finals of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The total was 141 points at most books.
Todd Golden’s team advanced to the finals with a 79-73 win over Auburn as a two-point ‘chalk’ in Saturday’s semifinal showdown. UF recovered from a 46-38 halftime deficit by outscoring the Tigers 41-27 in the second half.
Trailing 49-40 with 17:50 remaining, the Gators went on an 11-0 run that was sparked by Will Richard’s three-point play the hard way off an offensive rebound. Next, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin drained back-to-back 3-pointers before Clayton’s layup put UF in the lead.
Auburn countered with a 6-0 spurt of its own before Clayton buried a trey and hit a pair of free throws. From there, both teams went back and forth for several minutes.
Bruce Pearl’s team took its last lead of the game on a dunk by Dylan Cardwell off a sweet dish from Johni Broome with 6:52 left. But Thomas Haugh put UF in front for good on a layup with 6:31 remaining.
When AU’s Chad Baker-Mazara hit a pair of free throws to cut UF’s lead to 66-65 with 4:47 remaining, Clayton responded with a timely 3-pointer. Denver Jones pulled the Tigers back to within one with a 3-ball of his own at the 4:01 mark.
Clayton extended the Gators’ lead to 71-68 on a layup with 2:24 left. Broome drew a foul on Alex Condon on AU’s next possession, but he missed both critical free throws.
Next, Clayton provided some early onions with a driving bucket – and one. His free throw gave Florida a 74-68 advantage with 1:33 remaining. Haugh’s jumper with 37 seconds left inserted the dagger.
Bettors on Florida’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 80.5 points came up short with the 79-point output. They were hurt by Haugh making only 2-of-4 free throws in the final minute, in addition to two turnovers by Martin in the final two minutes.
The 152 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 158.5-point total. Nevertheless, the ‘over’ is still on an 11-1 run in the Gators’ last 12 games to improve to 21-17-1 overall.
Clayton hit 11-of-18 field-goal attempts, 5-of-8 treys and all seven of his free throws in a 34-point effort. He also had 30 points in UF’s Elite Eight win over Texas Tech. Clayton became the first player to score at least 30 points in back-to-back games in the Elite Eight and beyond for the first time since Larry Bird in the 1979 NCAA Tournament.
Martin finished with 17 points and Haugh added 12 points, seven rebounds, two blocked shots and one steal.
Baker-Mazara had 18 points and four steals, knocking down 4-of-7 attempts from beyond the arc. Broome finished with 15 points, seven rebounds, three steals and two blocked shots.
Houston (35-4 SU, 21-16-2 ATS) is in the finals for the first time since losing to Georgetown in Seattle back in 1984. The Cougars erased a six-point deficit with 35 seconds remaining and rallied to win a 70-67 decision over Duke in Saturday’s national semifinal.
They won outright as 4.5 or five-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a +220 return. The 137 combined points resulted in a push for many ‘over/under’ wagers.
Kelvin Sampson’s team finished the game on a 9-0 run that started with Emmanuel Sharp’s 3-pointer with 33 ticks left. Moments later, the Cougars got a steal off the inbounds pass.
Mylik Wilson got a clean look at potential tying 3-pointer, but it was off the mark. However, Joseph Tugler flushed home a dunk off an offensive rebound to make it a one-point game with 25 seconds left.
After Duke broke UH’s press, Wilson gave a foul to Tyrese Proctor. The Blue Devils weren’t in the double bonus yet. Proctor missed the front end of the one-and-one situation, and then Cooper Flagg was whistled for an over-the-back foul.
Houston’s J’Wan Roberts hit both ends of the one-and-one opportunity to put his team ahead, 68-67, with 19 seconds remaining.
After Duke took a timeout, it got the ball to Flagg on the wing. The freshman backed his way into the paint before shooting a fadeaway 12-footer. It was short.
Wilson rebounded the miss. Two passes later, UH’s L.J. Cryer was fouled with 3.7 seconds left. Cryer hit both shots from the charity stripe.
Duke’s length-of-the-court pass was tipped before Kon Knueppel gathered the ball. He wasn’t behind the 3-point line, though, and had to pass it to Proctor, who had to rush the shot that was way off.
Cryer was the catalyst for Houston, finishing with 26 points and five rebounds. The senior guard hit 6-of-9 launches from downtown. Sharp added 16 points, while Roberts had 11 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two steals.
In the losing effort, Flagg had 27 points, seven boards, four assists, three blocks and two steals. Knueppel had 16 points and seven rebounds.
Houston has been an underdog only twice this season, winning outright in both situations. The Cougars also won in double overtime at Kansas as one-point road ‘dogs.
The 141 points is the second-lowest total of the season for Florida. The lowest was 133 points in an 87-69 home win over Virginia that saw the ‘over’ cash easily.
The ‘over’ is 4-2-1 for the Gators in their seven games that had totals in the 140s. They’ve played 18 games in a row that have had combined scores of at least 144 points (a 79-65 win at LSU on Feb. 22).
This is Houston’s fourth-highest total of the year, but the ‘over’ hit in all three games that had higher totals – an 81-76 win vs. Gonzaga that went ‘over’ 142 points, a 74-69 loss vs. Auburn that went ‘over’ 141.5 and an 85-80 overtime loss to Alabama that went ‘over’ 150.
The ‘under’ is 22-16-1 overall for the Cougars, who have won 18 games in a row since losing by one in overtime vs. Texas Tech on Feb. 1. The ‘under’ is on a 9-3-1 run for Houston in its last 13 contests.
KenPom has Houston ranked #1 nationally in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency. It has UF ranked #2 in offensive efficiency and #9 in defensive efficiency.
Some books have players props. The ‘over/under’ for points scored for Clayton is 19.5 (-125 to the ‘over’), Cryer’s is 16.5 (‘over’ 125), Martin’s is 12.5 (-110 either way) and Richard’s is 11.5.
Both teams have a Team Total of 70.5 points.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:50 p.m. Eastern tonight on CBS.
PREDICTION: I like Florida -1 for 2.5 units (risking 2.75 units). Also, let’s risk 0.625 units to win 0.5 units on Walter Clayton to go ‘over’ 19.5 points (-125 price).