Let’s jump into some picks on tonight’s stacked college hoops card.
Pick #1: Florida Team Total ‘over’ 91.5 points vs. Mississippi St., risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units – Mississippi St. has given up 100 points at Alabama, 97 at South Carolina, 97 vs. Alabama, 92 at Kentucky, 98 at Texas, 96 vs. Iowa St. in South Dakota and 98 to Kansas St. in Kansas City. KenPom has Florida ranked #11 nationally in offensive efficiency after its 111-point effort this past Saturday vs. Arkansas. The Gators have scored at least 92 points in 10 of their last 19 games.
Pick #2: Seton Hall -1 at Xavier, risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit – Seton Hall (19-10 straight up, 17-12 against the spread) is 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS in 10 road assignments, while Xavier (14-15 SU, 15-14 ATS) is 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS at home. However, six of those home wins have come against opponents ranked #182 or worse at KenPom, and 10 came against foes ranked #83 or worse.
Seton Hall is #53, by the way. The Pirates played one of their best games of the season in this past Saturday’s 71-67 loss at UConn in a game they led outright for most of the game. They have won three of their last five games and are 4-2 ATS in their last six outings.
Pick #3: Seton Hall at Xavier ‘over’ 143.5 points (Circa), risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit – The ‘over’ has hit at a 22-5 clip for Xavier in its last 27 games, and this is its fourth-lowest total of the season and its lowest since Nov. 23. When these teams met in New Jersey back on Jan. 28, Seton Hall coasted to an 86-68 win with the 154 combined points soaring ‘over’ the 145.5-point total. The game went ‘over’ the number with 2:32 remaining. Nineteen of Xavier’s last 21 games have had 152 combined points or more.
Pick #4: TCU +8 at Texas Tech, risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit – TCU (19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS) is 7-2 ATS with four outright wins in nine games as an underdog this season. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven head-to-head meetings against the Red Raiders. Jamie Dixon’s team has won three games in a row both SU and ATS, and it has also won six of its last seven games. The Frogs are on a 5-1 ATS run.
Pick #5: Alabama +1 at Georgia (Westgate SuperBook), risking 0.55 units to win 0.5 units – Alabama (22-7 SU, 13-16 ATS) is on an eight-game winning streak since losing at Florida on Feb. 1. The Crimson Tide is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in nine road assignments. They own outright wins as underdogs at St. John’s, at Illinois (in Chicago), at Auburn and at Tennessee.
Georgia (20-9 SU, 14-15 ATS) is 13-4 SU and 8-9 ATS in 17 home games this year. The Bulldogs have lost six of their last 10 games.
Pick #6: Kentucky +1.5 at Texas A&M, risking 0.55 units to win 0.5 units – Might this be a look-ahead spot for Kentucky (19-10 straight up, 15-14 against the spread) ahead of its revenge game at home Saturday vs. Florida? Possibly.
However, I feel like this is a game between teams going in opposite directions. Kentucky is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three with the lone defeat coming in a controversial 75-74 loss at Auburn as a 3.5-point road underdog. UK is 4-1 ATS with two outright wins in its last five games as a ‘dog.
Texas A&M (19-9 SU, 16-12 ATS) is mired in a 2-5 slump SU with a 1-6 ATS record in that span.
For more of my thoughts on tonight’s card, you can check out this video from this morning for Southeastern 16.