What’s up, ladies and gentlemen? It’s that time of year and I’ve got plenty of picks, thoughts, stats, injury intel and more, so let’s get into it.
–I’m heavy on Florida at +100 to win the West Region. Yes, the Gators should’ve been the #1 overall seed and yes, they got the toughest draw with a strong #2 seed in St. John’s (and really good #3 and #4 seeds in Texas Tech and Maryland, respectively) that probably has the best head coach of any team in the field. Speaking of the Red Storm, I’m not against taking the Johnnies at 6/1 to win the West Region for one-half unit. I’m on the Gators for five units, but I think Rick Pitino’s team poses the biggest threat to UF. By backing St. John’s for one-half unit, three units of a potential loss on Florida would be covered if it’s Pitino’s bunch that makes it to San Antonio.
-That’s not happening, though. I remember Ed Orgeron’s interview after winning the SEC Championship Game in 2019. He was asked if he had a preference on who LSU would play and where in the College Football Playoff. He responded, “It don’t matter who we play or where we play. The Tigers will be ready.” That’s what I think about my alma mater right now. Send Florida wherever you want and send whoever you want. Just don’t send anybody that you want back!
–Iowa State star guard Keshon Gilbert is out of the NCAA Tournament. That’s a crushing blow for the Cyclones.
-Drake, a 6.5-point underdog vs. Missouri on Thursday, is 6-0 both SU and ATS in six games as an underdog this season, including an 81-70 win over Vanderbilt in Charleston. The Commodores are the only opponent the Bulldogs have faced that made the NCAA Tournament.
-The player to watch for Drake is Bennett Stirtz, who leads the nation in minutes played per game (39.3 MPG!). Stirtz averages 19.1 points, 5.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 steals per game. He’s drained 49.3 percent of his field-goal attempts, 38.6 percent of his 3-pointers and 79.5 percent of his free throws.
-As of early Wednesday, Robert Morris (26-8 straight up, 25-7 against the spread) was a 23.5-point underdog vs. Alabama in a Friday first-round game set for a 12:40 p.m. Eastern tip in Cleveland. The Colonials are 11-2 ATS with eight outright wins in 13 games as underdogs.
-According to my sources in the know in the Yellowhammer State, it’s unlikely that Alabama power forward Grant Nelson will play vs. Robert Morris. Nelson left the Crimson Tide’s loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals with an injured knee late in the first half. The expectation is that Nelson will give it a go on Sunday if Alabama advances to the Round of 32.
-Speaking of the Yellowhammer State, Florida owns a 3-0 record against teams that hail from the state of Alabama this season.
-After Alabama State’s thrilling last-second win Tuesday night in Dayton at the First Four, it gets to face top-seeded Auburn on Thursday at 2:50 p.m. Eastern in Lexington at Rupp Arena. As of early Wednesday, the Tigers were favorites in the -31 to -32 range. Bruce Pearl’s team has lost three of its last four games. Pearl’s team is the NCAAT’s #1 overall seed, but it has to potentially play Louisville in a Round of 32 game in Kentucky? That seems odd.
-Let’s circle back to Alabama vs. Robert Morris. The total is 165.5 or 166 points. I’m on ‘over’ 165.5 for one unit. The Crimson Tide has had totals higher than 165.5 in 10 of its last 11 games, and it has had combined scores of at least 169 in nine of its last 10 contests. In fact, Alabama has had 179 combined points or more in eight of its last nine outings.
-Despite an enormous disadvantage in the head-coaching department, I like Arkansas +5 vs. Kansas for 1.5 units. The Razorbacks are in much better form right now, as they’re 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games, and two of the non-covers were by one combined point. John Calipari’s team is 6-2 ATS with three outright victories in its last eight games as an underdog. Perhaps most important, the Hogs are poised for the return of star guard Boogie Fland. Kansas (21-12 SU, 15-18 ATS) is mired in a 7-8 SU and 5-10 ATS slump in its last 15 games dating back to Jan. 25. The Jayhawks are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. KU is 5-9 SU in 14 contests against teams in the NCAAT field, but it is 2-9 SU in its last 11 such spots. On the flip side, Arkansas is 9-11 in 20 games against foes in the field, going 4-1 in the last five with the lone defeat coming by three points vs. Ole Miss.
–I’m on BYU -2.5 vs. VCU for 1.5 units in Denver on Thursday. The Rams won the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid by beating George Mason in Sunday’s A-10 Tournament finals. For some reason, though, the Rams are being punished for that success by being forced to play on Thursday at altitude across the country. They had a four-hour flight from Richmond to Denver. On the flip side, BYU (24-9 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) is well rested after beating Iowa St. on Thursday and losing to Houston on Friday in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. The Cougars had a 55-minute flight and are accustomed to playing in altitude. BYU is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. The Cougars are 15-9 in 24 games against KenPom Top-100 opponents, while VCU is 5-3 in eight such spots. The Rams are 1-1 in two games against teams that made the field, beating Colorado St. and losing to New Mexico.
–For my thoughts on Texas A&M vs. Yale, check out this preview with Chris Lee and Max Barr for Southeastern 16.
–Check out this week’s Bets and Ballgames podcast here, as Jay Greeson and I preview each SEC game and give our picks for Southeastern 16.
-How the hell is Louisville a #8 seed? The Cardinals are 27-7 SU and 20-14 ATS, and they won 19 games by double-digit margins. The reasonable pushback is that U of L went just 3-6 in nine games against teams that made the NCAAT field, but two of those losses came to top-seeded Duke, one came against second-seeded Tennessee and another vs. third-seeded Kentucky at Rupp. But there’s also this: Pat Kelsey’s team went 3-0 against three schools that were on the bubble all year in SMU, Indiana and West Va. None of those three wins were at Louisville, either, and the Cardinals beat the Hoosiers by 28 points as four-point underdogs on a neutral court.
-It was shameful (and then some!) for North Carolina to make the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels had a 1-10 record in 11 games against teams that made the NCAAT field, losing six of those game by 13 points or more. The lone win was a 76-74 triumph over UCLA at MSG in NYC way back on Dec. 21. With that said, UNC put it on San Diego St. from start to finish last night in a 95-68 win as a 4.5-point favorite. Now Hubert Davis’s team doesn’t have to play again until Friday when it will take on Ole Miss. The Tar Heels were listed as 1.5-point favorites to the Rebels as of early Wednesday.
-Oklahoma, a 5.5-point underdog Friday night vs. UConn, is 12-6 ATS with eight outright wins in 18 games as an underdog this year. The Sooners are on a 7-0 ATS run with four outright victories in their last seven games. The three losses came by five combined points, including a pair of one-point setbacks vs. Kentucky in the last three weeks. I lean OU, but Dan Hurley has won 12 consecutive NCAAT games.
-The ‘over’ is on a 5-1-1 run for Oklahoma in its last seven games, but the ‘under’ had 148 combined points and the push had 165. In fact, the Sooners have had at least 148 combined points in nine straight games. Friday’s total vs UConn is 147.5 points.
-Kentucky’s Lamont Butler will be available vs. Troy. Butler didn’t play (shoulder) in UK’s SEC Tournament quarterfinals loss vs. Alabama. He averages 11.5 points, 4.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game, but he’s missed seven of the last 14 games for the Wildcats, who are 11.5-point favorites vs. the Trojans.
-Houston’s J’Wan Roberts will be back vs. SIU Edwardsville. Roberts averages 10.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.0 SPG.
-If we have a St. John’s-Arkansas Round of 32 game featuring Pitino and Calipari, shouldn’t that game have been at Rupp Arena?