Folks, we’ve got day games. We’ve got bubble teams starving for wins, and we’ve got potential Cinderella stories brewing across the country.
Too soon? Sure, one upset doesn’t mean several more are coming.
But that’s zero fun. This is March, and wild shit happens all the time.
Can San Jose St. cause some trouble in Las Vegas? The Spartans ended Boise St.’s five-game winning streak in last night’s 84-74 win as 14.5-point underdogs. Tim Miles’s team cashed 10/1 money-line tickets, as guard Colby Garland produced 22 points, five rebounds, three steals and three assists without a turnover while playing all 40 minutes at the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
UNLV is actually the team to watch at the MWC Tourney that’s held in its house, Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels swept the MWC regular-season champs, Utah St., beating the Aggies 92-65 as 7.5-point home underdogs on March 3.
Josh Pastner’s team also won 86-76 in Logan as a 15.5-point road underdog. As of Thursday morning, most books had Utah St. listed as a 7.5-point road favorite for today’s 2:00 p.m. Eastern tip.
UNLV is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, going 5-1 ATS with four outright wins in its last six games as an underdog.
As for the bubble teams, many like Indiana, Cincinnati, SMU, Texas and California went down yesterday. Teams like Oklahoma, Va. Tech, Auburn, Missouri, Seton Hall and San Diego St. are starving for wins today.
All that will be fun to monitor, but we like to gamble here. So, let’s get to what we hope will be a plethora of winners.
Pick #1: Let’s risk 2.2 units to win two on Xavier-UConn ‘over’ 151.5 points (South Point).
I might have been late to the party, but better late than never, right? I’ve backed Xavier ‘overs’ for winners in four straight games, including yesterday’s 89-87 win for the Musketeers vs. Marquette. The 176 combined points soared ‘over’ the 157.5-point total (after that number was 154 yesterday morning), becoming a winner with 2:32 remaining.
The ‘over’ is now on an insane 25-5 run in Xavier’s last 30 contests, and two of the five ‘unders’ had 155 combined points apiece. When these teams met in the regular season, UConn won by scores of 90-67 and 92-60 for 157 and 152 combined points, respectively.
Pick #2: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win one on UNLV +7.5 vs. Utah St. Let’s also risk 0.25 units to 0.725 units on UNLV on the money line for a +290 payout.
Let’s hope the Rebels can take down the Aggies for a third time this season.
Pick #3: Let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on FSU +17.5 vs Duke.
FSU (17-14 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) has won four straight games and 10 of its last 12. The Seminoles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and 5-0 ATS with two outright wins in their last five games as underdogs of 7.5 points or more. When these teams met in Tallahassee on Jan. 3, Duke won 91-87 at FSU with Luke Loucks’s team easily covering the spread as a 16.5-point home underdog.
Duke (29-2 SU, 18-13 ATS) is going to be without two injured starters, guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba. Foster averages 8.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, and Ngongba averages 10.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocked shots per game.
Pick #4: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win one unit on Wisconsin -7 vs. Washington.
Wisconsin (22-9 SU 18-13 ATS) has won three straight games both SU and ATS, including a 90-73 win at Washington, a 78-45 home win over Maryland and a 97-93 win at Purdue as a 9.5-point road underdog. The Badgers are 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in their 20 games, including a 91-88 win at Michigan, a 92-90 win at Illinois and a 92-71 home win over Michigan St.
Washington (15-16 SU, 18-13 ATS) played an overtime game yesterday with three of its starters logging 43 minutes apiece. Another had 40 minutes of playing time. The Huskies are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games with eight losses by nine points or more.
Pick #5: Let’s risk 0.6 units to win 0.5 units on Virginia -5.5 (at a -120 price at FanDuel) vs. NC St.
When these teams met in Raleigh on Jan. 3, Virginia (27-4 SU, 15-16 ATS) captured a 76-61 win as a 4.5-point road underdog. In the rematch in Charlottesville, UVA spanked the Wolfpack by a 90-61 score as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk.’
The Cavaliers have won 16 of their last 18 games with their lone defeats coming at Duke and vs. UNC (with a healthy Caleb Wilson). They’ve won nine of those games by seven points or more.
NC St. (19-12 SU, 14-17 ATS) ended a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS with yesterday’s 98-88 win over Pitt. Nevertheless, Will Wade’s squad has still lost six of its last eight games and is mired in a 2-8 ATS slump in its last 10 contests.
Pick #6: Let’s risk one unit to win 1.4 units on a three-leg, money-line parlay with Wisconsin, Virginia and Villanova (vs. Georgetown).
Pick #7: Let’s risk 1.55 units to win one unit on Florida -155 (FanDuel) to win the SEC Tournament.
I don’t like the price, but the price only becomes a factor in the event of a loss. Nobody is touching the Gators in Nashville this weekend.
Pick #8: Let’s risk 0.5 units to win one unit on Miami (OH.) (+200) to win the MAC Tournament.
Whether you tail or fade, best of luck, everybody!