OXFORD, MS. — As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Michigan (25-1 straight up, 14-12 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite vs. Duke on Saturday in Washington D.C. The total was 148.5 points, while the Blue Devils were +125 on the money line.
Michigan has been a single-digit favorite only six times this season, compiling a 5-1 ATS record. The five spread covers have come in wins by margins of 40 (94-54 when -5.5 vs. San Diego St. in Las Vegas), 30 (102-72 when -5.5 vs. Auburn in Vegas), 12 (83-71 when -2.5 at Michigan St.), 21 (82-61 when -8.5 at Ohio St.) and 11 (91-80 when -1.5 at Purdue).
The Wolverines beat the closing lines in those games by 90.5 combined points. They also blasted Gonzaga 101-61 as 2.5-point underdogs on a neutral court.
Dusty May’s team is on an 11-game winning streak since taking its only defeat of the season at home vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 10. Michigan has won 10 of those 11 games by double-digit margins.
Duke (24-2 SU, 14-12 ATS) is mired in a 1-4 ATS slump, but it has won three games in a row since losing 71-68 at North Carolina on Feb. 7. The Blue Devils are off a 101-64 win over Syracuse as 20-.5-point home ‘chalk.’
Freshman sensation Cameron Boozer led the way with 22 points and 12 rebounds in only 25 minutes of playing time. He made 8-of-10 field-goal attempts and 5-of-6 free throws. Isaiah Evans added 21 points for the winners.
Duke will be in its first underdog spot since winning 69-55 at Arizona as a two-point road underdog on Nov. 22 of last season.
Pick #1: Let’s risk 1.15 units to win 1 on Michigan -2 (-115). It’s -115 odds because DraftKings has Michigan’s price at -105 for -2.5.
As of early Friday afternoon, most spots had Florida listed as a 12.5-point road favorite for Saturday’s noon Eastern tip at Ole Miss. The total was in the 147.5 to 148.5 range, while the Rebels were +720 on the money line at FanDuel.
The Gators have lost four games in a row in Oxford. They’re too expensive laying double digits in this situation, so I’m looking at the total.
The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for Ole Miss with combined scores of 157, 168, 167, 147 and 150 points.
This is Florida’s second-lowest total of the season. The only total UF has had in the 140s was when it lost a 77-73 decision vs. UConn, as the 150 combined points went ‘over’ the 145.5-point tally. The Gators have had at least 150 combined points in four of their last five games.
The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games in this rivalry with the last two meetings netting combined scores of 161 and 188 points.
Pick #2: UF at Ole Miss ‘over’ 147.5 points (DraftKings), risking 1.1 units to win 1.
FanDuel had Clemson (20-7 SU, 16-11 ATS) as a 9.5-point home favorite vs. FSU on Friday afternoon. The Tigers will be seeking a seventh consecutive win over the Seminoles in this rivalry. They’ve covered in five straight head-to-head meetings with wins by double-digit margins in each of those encounters.
However, FSU (13-13 SU, 14-12 ATS) has turned its season around since mid-January. Luke Loucks’ squad has won back-to-back games and five of its last six. The Seminoles have cashed tickets at a 7-2 clip in their last nine contests.
They’re 6-0 ATS with three outright victories in their last six games as underdogs. In the three outright defeats, FSU has lost by only seven combined points.
Clemson is on a three-game losing streak after defeats vs. Va. Tech (76-66), at Duke (67-54) and at Wake Forest (85-77).
Pick #3: FSU +9.5 at Clemson, risking 1.1 units to win 1.
As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Texas (17-9 SU, 15-10 ATS) as a 1.5-point road underdog for Saturday’s SEC showdown at Georgia. The Longhorns are on a five-game winning streak and have prevailed in six of their last seven.
They already beat UGA 87-67 as 2.5-point home favorites on Jan. 24. The Bulldogs led 37-30 at halftime, but they were outscored 57-30 in the final 20 minutes.
Dailyn Swain led Texas with 26 points, six rebounds and five steals on 12-of-16 shooting from the field. Tramon Mark added 23 points, six boards and four assists.
Texas owns a 7-1 ATS record with four outright victories in eight games as an underdog this season.
Pick #4: Texas +1.5 at Georgia, risking 1.1 units to win 1.
For more of my thoughts on these picks and Saturday’s card, check out my video published early Friday afternoon on Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel.
There are still some games without lines, so check back later for the potential addition of more picks.