As of late Sunday morning, most books had Florida (29-4 straight up, 25-8 against the spread) listed as a five or 5.5-point favorite for today’s SEC Tournament finals vs. Tennessee at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
Florida absolutely blasted Alabama 104-82 in Saturday’s semifinals, easily covering the number as a three-point favorite. The 186 combined points went ‘over’ the 180-point total.
UF outscored the Crimson Tide 57-37 in the second half. In fairness to Nate Oats’s squad, it was playing without Grant Nelson, who scored nine points and had three rebounds, one steal, one blocked shot and one assist without a turnover in only 10 minutes of playing time.
Nelson asked out of the game after suffering some sort of leg injury that had him limping. He didn’t play the rest of the game and was sorely missed by his team.
Whatever the case, UF played lights out in the second half. Walter Clayton Jr. led six double-figure scorers with 22 points, three rebounds, three steals and six assists without a turnover. Will Richard and Alijah Martin added 16 points apiece.
Denzel Aberdeen and Thomas Haugh each finished with 11 points, with Haugh contributing four boards, one blocked shot and three assists without a turnover. Rueben Chinyelu had 10 points and 10 rebounds in 16 minutes of action before fouling out.
UF’s win over ‘Bama worked well for us. As hopefully most readers saw (and tailed) yesterday, my preview suggested a three-unit play on the Gators at -3 (winner), a one-unit bet on UF’s Team Total ‘over’ 89.5 points (winner) and a one-unit wager on Florida -2 in the first half (push). Therefore, we had a 2-0-1 ATS record for four units of profit (although we lost the one-unit suggestion on Sparty -2.5 vs. Wisconsin).
Florida has easily been the best team in the country since Feb. 4, compiling an 11-1 record both SU and ATS in its last 12 games. Nine of those 11 wins have come over teams who are going to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
It includes a 90-81 win at Auburn without Martin. It also includes a 99-94 win at Alabama and yesterday’s 22-point shellacking of the Tide.
Furthermore, UF won by 13 in Starkville and thumped Missouri by 14 in Nashville. Nine of the 11 wins have been by margins of 11 points or more.
Tennessee (27-6 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) is playing outstanding basketball as well, winning three games in a row and seven of its last eight, including a 70-65 win over Auburn yesterday.
However, the Vols aren’t going to be able to score enough to keep pace with the Gators, who aren’t losing again this year. And they’re covering again today.
PREDICTIONS: Again, we aren’t fading Tennessee here. We’re playing on the Gators. Let’s go with two units on Florida -5 and one unit on UF -3 in the first half. We’d probably be heavier on Todd Golden’s squad from a units perspective today, but I already have three units at risk for payouts ranging from +260 to +300 (three separate one-unit plays) for the Gators to win the SEC Tournament.