As of early Saturday afternoon, most books had Florida (24-4 straight up, 20-8 against the spread) installed as a nine-point home favorite for tonight’s SEC showdown vs. Texas A&M at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The total was 148.5 points, while the Aggies were in the +325 to +400 (Caesars) range on the money line.
For first-half bets, UF was -5 or -5.5 with a total of 70.
Todd Golden’s team is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS at home, going 6-1 ATS in seven SEC home games. In the Gators’ lone single-digit home ‘chalk’ spot, they destroyed Tennessee 73-43 as three-point favorites.
UF is off its fourth loss of the year Tuesday at Georgia. The Gators battled back from a 26-point deficit to take a two-point lead in the final minute, but UGA finished the game on a 7-0 run to win an 88-83 decision.
In UF’s three previous bounce-back spots this season, it has won 73-43 vs. the Vols, 84-60 vs. Texas and 86-75 vs. Vandy. The Gators went 3-0 both SU and ATS in those contests, beating the closing number by 41.5 combined points.
Texas A&M (20-8 SU, 14-12-2 ATS) is 4-4 SU and 3-4-1 ATS on the road. The Aggies have lost three games in a row both SU and ATS, including a 70-54 loss at Mississippi St. in their last road outing.
Buzz Williams’s squad had beaten UF five games in a row (by merely 10 combined points) until the Gators rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Texas A&M 95-90 in last year’s SEC Tournament semifinals. Denzel Aberdeen led the way with 20 points and four steals.
PREDICTION: I’m on Florida -9 for one unit and -5 in the first half for 0.5 units.
With that said, I’ll point out how UF has had some slow starts recently, and I won’t push back against any bettor wanting to wait to potentially get a better number on UF live.
I’ve certainly used that strategy with a lot of success recently. For instance, when the Gators trailed by six points at LSU at halftime last week, they were favored by nine in the second half (-3 adjusted).
I took advantage with a three-unit winner.
Then in Tuesday’s loss at UGA, I hit multiple winners with live bets on UF at +9.5 and +14.5.
Whatever you do, best of luck!