Edwards likes Florida Gators +5.5 vs. Auburn in SEC Tourney finals

Edwards likes Florida Gators +5.5 vs. Auburn in SEC Tourney finals

Less than 30 minutes before tip of today’s SEC Tournament finals, most betting shops had Auburn installed as a five or 5.5-point favorite vs. Florida. The total was in the 157.5 to 158.5 range.

Florida (24-10 straight up, 16-17-1 against the spread) was in the +185 to +202 (BetOnline) range on the money line. Circa had the Gators at +200 odds to win outright.

When these teams met in Gainesville, Todd Golden’s team blasted Auburn 81-65 as a two-point home underdog. UF raced out to a 30-16 lead and had a 42-26 advantage at halftime.

Auburn (26-7 SU, 20-11-2 ATS) got no closer than 16 in the second half. The Tigers are 11-6 SU in 17 games played on the road or at a neutral venue.

Florida is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games, and it blew double-digit leads in all four of those losses. The Gators have won seven of those 13 games by nine points or more.

During this stretch, Golden’s bunch has collected quality home wins over Auburn, Mississippi St. (79-70) and Alabama (105-87). The Gators also own neutral-court scalps of Alabama (102-88) and Texas A&M (95-90), in addition to a 94-91 win at Kentucky in overtime.

UF is 6-7 in Quad-1 games, while Auburn is 2-7 vs Q1 foes. The Gators are really close to a seventh Q1 win, but Mississippi St. is #31 in the NET (and would be a Q1 win if MSU was #30 because it was a home win for UF).

PREDICTION: Florida +5.5 for 1.2 units and UF +202 (BetOnline) on the money line, risking 0.5 units to win 1.01 units.