As of early Saturday afternoon, most books had Florida (28-4 straight up, 24-8 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite vs. Alabama in today’s SEC Tournament semifinals showdown at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. The total was 177 points, while the Crimson Tide had +145 money-line odds.
UF is 10-1 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games, winning those 10 games by margins of 14, 19, 5, 19, 14, 22, 21, 13, 9 and 11 points. Put simply, Todd Golden’s team has been the best team in the country over the last five weeks.
The Gators have incredible size and depth. They also have one of the best players in the country in first-team All-American Walter Clayton Jr., who had 18 points and six assists in last night’s 95-81 win over Missouri. In 30 regular-season games, Clayton averaged 17.2 points, 4.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game.
UF has won three games in a row in this rivalry both SU and ATS, including a 102-88 win in last year’s SEC Tournament and a 99-94 win at Alabama 10 days ago. Alex Condon was the catalyst in Tuscaloosa, where he produced 27 points, 10 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.
Clayton added 22 points, five rebounds and eight assists compared to only one turnover. Florida dominated the glass at Alabama, enjoying a 46-32 rebounding advantage.
Alabama (25-7 SU, 19-13 ATS) has recovered nicely from the loss to UF, winning back-to-back games at Auburn and vs. Kentucky (99-70) last night. I still think the Crimson Tide are a Final Four team and might be the second-best team in the country.
However, I’m convinced the Gators are THE best team in the country. I think they cover this inexpensive number and probably win by double digits.
PREDICTIONS: Florida -3 vs. Alabama for three units. Florida Team Total ‘over’ 89.5 points for one unit and UF -2 in the first half for one unit. I’m also on Michigan St. -2.5 for one unit vs. Wisconsin today.
Whether you tail or fade, best of luck to all with your wagers!