Edwards is bullish on total for UNLV at Air Force

Edwards is bullish on total for UNLV at Air Force

Finally! After an eight-day hiatus, Air Force returns to the court tonight to host UNLV.

Back on Feb. 10, we encouraged readers to back the ‘over’ in Air Force’s 68-66 home loss to Fresno St. Although it was far from a never-a-doubt victory, we did get to the window to cash a ticket when the 134 combined points inched ‘over’ the total of 131.5 to 132.5 points (depending on your book).

On Feb. 6, we pushed a play of ‘over’ 133.5 points in Air Force’s 77-64 home loss to San Diego St. In this instance, we got into the win column with more than three minutes remaining.

On Jan. 30, we recommended the ‘over’ in the Falcons’ 83-72 home loss to Wyoming. The 155 combined sailed ‘over’ the 137-point total.

Air Force (8-16 straight up, 7-17 against the spread) lost 73-66 at San Jose St. last Tuesday night. We didn’t get an article penned here at MajorWager, but of course we were on that game to go ‘over’ as you can here. 

It wasn’t an easy winner, but the 139 combined points did go North of the 134 or 134.5-point total.

The ‘over’ has hit 10 straight games for the Falcons and is on a 15-1 run in their last 16 contests.

When you see a team cover (or lose ATS) or hit its ‘overs’ or ‘unders’ at a consistent clip over an extended a period of time, those streaks are bound to come to an end soon as you see some regression.

Those results usually even out over time more quickly as oddsmakers make adjustments in the numbers.

One quick example from earlier in this year’s NBA season were the ‘overs’ for the Indiana Pacers. They saw the ‘over’ start the season with an incredible 16-2 record, as books were hanging numbers in the upper 230s and lower 240s.

Finally, after getting beat up for weeks, most betting shops started throwing Indiana’s totals out in the upper 240s and 250s. At that point, the ‘unders’ started coming in and have posted a 23-15 record since the 16-2 start for the ‘over’ (The ‘over’ is 31-25 overall for the Pacers coming out of the All-Star break.).

But we aren’t seeing a shift in the totals for Air Force – at least not yet. Despite the fact that the ‘under’ has been a winner just once in 16 games for the Falcons since late November, betting shops continue to hang their totals in the low-to-mid 130s.

That’s the case again tonight. As of 8:50 a.m. Eastern, most spots had UNLV (14-10 SU, 13-9 ATS) installed as a six-point road favorite with a total of 133. The Falcons were +195 to +220 (South Point) on the money line.

When these Mtn. West rivals met in Las Vegas on Jan. 23, Air Force played its best game of the season in a 90-58 win at UNLV. The 148 combined points soared ‘over’ the 130-point total.

Air Force’s 15 recent ‘overs’ in its last 16 games have had combined scores of 139, 134, 141, 150, 155, 154, 148, 151, 147, 137, 148, 162, 149, 141 and 138 points. That’s 14 times the Falcons have had at least 137 combined points in their last 16 outings.

The ‘over’ is 13-9 overall for UNLV. This is the Rebels’ third-lowest total of the season. They’ve had three totals of 136 points or fewer, and the ‘over’ is 3-0 in those games.

The first was UNLV’s aforementioned 90-58 loss at home vs. Air Force for 148 combined points. The Rebels had a 136-point tally in their 82-65 loss to Richmond on a neutral court, as the 147 combined points produced an ‘over.’

And finally, Saint Mary’s edged UNLV 69-67 with the 136 combined points inching ‘over’ the 132-point total.

UNLV averages 74.6 points per game and gives up 69.8 PPG. Therefore, the Rebels’ 24 games this year have averaged combined scores of 144.4 PPG.

Air Force is ranked 26th nationally in 3-point accuracy, burying 37.3 percent of its attempts from long distance. The Falcons are ranked #337 in the country (out of 362 Division-1 programs) in field-goal percentage defense (46.7%), and they’re ranked #354 at defending the 3-point line (38.0%).

Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern, with Fox Sports 1 providing television coverage.

PREDICITON: UNLV at Air Force ‘OVER’ 133 points.