As of early Sunday morning, most betting shops had the Florida Gators (31-4 straight up, 26-9 against the spread) installed as a 9.5-point favorite for today’s Round-of-32 showdown vs. the UConn Huskies, the two-time defending national champions. A few offshore books had UF at -9.
Most spots had the total at in the range of 150 (Westgate SuperBook) to 151.5 (DraftKings) points. The Huskies were +400 on the money line.
For first-half bets, Florida was listed as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 71.5. UConn had +250 money-line odds to go into halftime with the lead.
Todd Golden’s team beat Norfolk St. 95-69 as a 28.5-point favorite Friday night in Raleigh. I backed UF’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 91 points for a winner. The 164 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 153.5-point total.
The ‘over’ is now on an 8-0 run in UF games that have produced combined scores of 164, 163, 186, 176, 161, 193, 159 and 171 points.
UF senior guard Walter Clayton scored game-high 23 points against the 16th-seeded Spartans, draining 6-of-11 field-goal attempts, 4-of-9 shots from 3-point land and 7-of-8 free throws. Senior guard Alijah Martin added 17 points, while Thomas Haugh added 13 points, three rebounds, two blocked shots and four assists without a turnover.
Alex Condon finished with 12 points, five boards, three assists, two steals and two blocks, and Micah Handlogten contributed six points, eight rebounds and three assists compared to only one turnover in 17 minutes of playing time. He made all three of his FGAs.
Will Richard had eight points, five assists and four rebounds.
We won 14.8 units by backing the Gators with seven bets last weekend that compiled a 6-0-1 record.
I don’t think anybody has anything for Florida. In a one-game scenario, anything can happen, but UF has more room for error than everyone else.
If Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu get into foul trouble, Golden is perfectly comfortable with Haugh and Handlogten on the court. If Martin or Clayton sprain an ankle or get into foul trouble, Denzel Aberdeen looks like he might be an All-SEC Player next season.
UF’s fourth guard, Urban Klavsar, has come through in critical moments this season, especially in a home win over Vanderbilt and the Gators’ dominant victory at Auburn.
Florida has won seven games in a row, going 6-1 against the spread, including wins over second-seeded Alabama (twice, 104-82 in Nashville and 99-94 at ‘Bama), second-seeded Tennessee (86-77), Missouri (95-81), Ole Miss (90-71) and Texas A&M (89-70).
UF is 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games dating back to Feb. 4. The Gators had covered the number in six straight games before failing to cover vs. Norfolk St.
They’re 10-1 ATS in 11 games as single-digit favorites this season.
KenPom has UF ranked #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency, while UConn is ranked #81 in defensive efficiency.
Florida is ranked third in the country in scoring with its 85.7 points-per-game average. The Gators have scored at least 83 points in eight straight games and have reached 81 points or more in 27 of 34 contests this season.
UF has scored at least 89 points in six straight contests.
Yes, UConn has won and covered the spread in 13 straight NCAA Tournament games on Danny Hurley’s watch, but Sunday’s matchup isn’t about the Huskies.
Florida is 15-4 in 19 games against teams that made this year’s NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, UConn is 8-6 in 14 games against teams in the NCAAT field.
UF has won 13 of those 15 games by at least nine points and 11 of them by margins of 11 points or more. The Gators have won by at least 11 points 25 times his year.
Florida is going to win by at least 15 points, possibly more than 20. UConn might hang around for a little bit, but UF will get plenty of separation over the course of 40 minutes.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 5.5 units to win five units on Florida -9 (BetOnline). Let’s also back UF’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 79.5 or 80 points for 1.5 units (risking 1.65). Finally, we’re also on Walter Clayton’s prop for points scored to go ‘over’ 17.5 (+100 price) and UF -5.5 in the first half, risking 0.55 units to win 0.5 units.
We’re hoping to go 4-0 for eight units of profit. Whether you tail or fade, best of luck to all on your bets.
*Note: I had ‘over’ 18.5 for Clayton’s points in Friday’s win over Norfolk St. He made that wager a winner with 18:15 remaining.