What’s up, all? I hope all of your brackets are thriving and tickets are cashing.
My Elite Eight – Arizona, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa St., Florida, Houston, St. John’s and UConn – is still alive. From scanning the people ahead of me (in “max points”) that have the Gators cutting the nets down like I do, I’m more than alive and kicking in my bracket contest.
In fact, I’ll be taking the cash IF this happens: Florida beats Arizona in the finals with Iowa St. and St. John’s being the other Final Four teams.
With the Cyclones’ Joshua Jefferson going down with an ankle injury, their Final Four aspirations could hinge on his return next weekend if they can get past Kentucky as five-point favorites today. Jefferson is listed as ‘questionable’ against the Wildcats, but the guess here is that it’s much closer to ‘doubtful.’
Jefferson averages 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
How good was the late-night action last night?! Nebraska advanced past Vandy in an Instant Classic in Oklahoma City, while Arkansas pulled away from a feisty and legit High Point squad in the final minute.
Let’s get to my picks for Sunday…
Pick #1: Florida -10.5 vs. Iowa, risking 2.2 units to win two units.
Florida (27-7 straight up, 19-15 against the spread) will have a home-like advantage with its crowd in Tampa. After getting blasted by Vandy in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, the Gators responded by dealing out the second-largest assbeating in NCAA Tournament history with their 114-55 win over Prairie View A&M on Friday night.
No starter played more than 25 minutes, so UF should have very fresh legs Sunday night.
Todd Golden’s team is 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games dating back to Jan. 6. Fourteen of those 18 wins have been by margins of 13 points or more.
Iowa (22-12 SU, 19-15 ATS) is mired in a 4-7 slump both SU and ATS in its last 11 contests.
Pick #2: Florida -5.5 in the first half vs. Iowa, risking 1.1 units to win one unit.
I think this will be a mismatch from start to finish.
Pick #3: Florida +160 to win the South Region, risking one unit to win 1.6 units.
Pick #4: Alabama vs. Texas Tech ‘over’ 163.5 points (‘over’ -115 at BetMGM), risking 1.15 units to win one unit.
The ‘over’ has cashed at an 8-4 clip for Alabama in its last 12 games, but one of those ‘unders’ had 175 combined points that would’ve soared ‘over’ this total. The Crimson Tide’s games are averaging combined scores of 175.3 PPG.
Texas Tech is ranked #8 in the country in 3-point accuracy (39.3%). The Red Raiders won a 91-71 decision over Akron on Friday, as the 162 combined points went ‘over’ the 154.5-point total.
Pick #5: Alabama Team Total ‘over’ 81.5 (‘over’ -120 at DraftKings) points, risking 1.2 units to win one unit.
Alabama is ranked #1 in the nation in scoring with its 91.7 points-per-game average. KenPom has Bama ranked #3 nationally in offensive efficiency, #4 in Adjusted Tempo and #6 in Average Possession Length.
The Crimson Tide has scored 83 points or more in 27 of its 33 games, producing at least 85 points 26 times. In four of the five games Aden Holloway has missed, they scored at least 90 points.
Pick #6: Tennessee pick ’em vs. Virginia (Circa), risking 1.1 units to win one unit.
Tennessee (23-11 straight up, 15-19 against the spread) played the nation’s fourth-toughest schedule, while Virginia’s (30-5 SU, 18-17 ATS) slate was ranked #55 at KenPom. The Volunteers blasted a 32-win Miami (OH.) squad 78-56 on Friday, while UVA found itself down by five points at halftime and needed an 11-0 run in the final five minutes to escape from Wright St. with an 82-73 win.
The Vols dominated the RedHawks without star forward Nate Ament scoring a point. He only played 19 minutes, as the team elected to rest his sore ankle in the second half with the game in hand. Yes, that’s a little concerning, but I’m confident he would’ve played through the pain if the game had been close.
Ament told reporters on Saturday that he “felt good” ahead of today’s showdown vs. UVA.
For more of my analysis on these games, you can check out this video at Southeastern 16. For my opinions on live bets today and throughout the rest of the Tournament, you can follow me on Twitter right here.
Whether you tail or fade, best of luck!