Originally published on Saturday, 3/28/26, at 4:08 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Sunday, 3/29/26, at 12:38 p.m. Eastern.
As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Duke (35-2 straight up, 20-17 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite vs. UConn in Sunday’s East Region finals at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
The total was in the 133.5 to 134.5 range, while the Huskies were +185 on the money line.
By early Sunday afternoon, most shops had the Blue Devils at -5 or 5.5 with a total of 134.5 or 135 points.
These schools are meeting 27 years to the day after UConn beat Duke to win the 1999 national championship. Five years later, the Huskies knocked off the Blue Devils again, albeit in the Final Four, on their way to winning another national title under Jim Calhoun.
Jon Scheyer’s team rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit to win an 80-75 decision over St. John’s in Friday’s East Region semifinals. The Red Storm covered the spread as a 6.5-point underdog, and the 155 combined points soared ‘over’ the 140.5-point tally.
Duke extended its winning streak to 14 games thanks to Isaiah Evans, who scored a game-high 25 points by draining 10-of-15 field-goal attempts and 4-of-8 launches from 3-point land. Cameron Boozer added 22 points, 10 rebounds and three assists.
Caleb Foster returned to the court only 19 days after undergoing surgery to repair a fracture in his foot. He was terrific in 19 minutes of playing time, contributing 11 points, three rebounds and two assists without a turnover. Foster made 5-of-8 FGAs.
“To be honest, he had no business playing tonight — 99 percent of guys do not come back to play under the circumstances of what’s happened to him,” Scheyer said of Foster. “It was incredible the way he willed us.”
UConn (32-5 SU, 15-22 ATS) improved to 16-1 SU in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games with Friday’s 67-63 win over Michigan St. as a 1.5-point favorite. The 130 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 136.5-point total.
Danny Hurley’s squad stormed out to a 25-6 lead early, but the Spartans battled back to cut the deficit to 35-27 at halftime. Tom Izzo’s team kept battling, taking two different one-point leads midway through the second half.
UConn countered with a 10-2 run to move ahead 56-49 with 5:10 remaining. The Spartans had one more push left, though, pulling to within one point, 58-57, on Carson Cooper’s dunk with 1:57 left.
On UConn’s next possession, senior forward Alex Karaban delivered a crucial 3-pointer for a 61-57 lead with 1:39 remaining, but Sparty’s Jeremiah Fears answered with a 3-ball of his own to make it 61-60 with 1:11 left.
Next, UConn’s Tarris Reed, who is a 57.2 percent free-throw shooter for his career, knocked down two huge ones from the charity stripe to extend the lead to three with 44 ticks remaining. After Fears responded with a pair of free throws, Karaban was sent to the line for a one-and-one opportunity.
Just like a senior is supposed to do, Karaban buried both attempts from the stripe. When Cooper made one of two free throws to make it 65-63 with four seconds left, Reed put the game away with two more free throws.
“He’s a calming influence for me,” Hurley said of Karaban. “I’m waiting for you to laugh. It’s like having an associate head coach that is in the locker room, that lives in the apartments, that is in the dining, that is in the weight room, that’s peer pressuring his teammates to do extra. It’s like having a top assistant that’s on your team and always around your players.”
“Give our guys credit. We bounced back and picked away,” Izzo said. “Our goal in the second half was to play much better. We just kind of wore down.”
Reed finished with 20 points, five rebounds, two blocked shots, one steal and four assists without a turnover, while Karaban had 17 points, seven boards and three assists. Solo Ball was also in double figures with 12 points.
In the losing effort, Cooper had 14 points, seven rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocked shots, and Fears finished with 13 points, seven assists, three steals and three rebounds.
Duke is 4-5 ATS in nine games as a single-digit favorite this season, while UConn won outright in its lone underdog spot of the year. The Huskies won 86-84 over BYU as 6.5-point underdogs in Boston back on Nov. 15.
Hurley is 2-0 in a pair of Elite Eight games during his coaching career, while Scheyer is 1-1.
PREDICTION: Pass. However, if Duke gets out to a nice lead early and I can get the Huskies as double-digit underdogs with a live bet, I’ll probably pull the trigger as long as they aren’t in any concerning foul trouble.
Michigan (34-3 SU, 17-20 ATS) advanced to the Midwest Region finals thanks to a 90-77 win over Alabama as a 9.5-point favorite. The 167 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 173.5-point total.
The Crimson Tide darted out to an 11-2 lead in the early going, only to see the Wolverines respond and take a six-point lead. But Nate Oats’s bunch finished the first half on an 8-0 run to take a 49-47 advantage into the break.
The second half was all Michigan, though, as it outscored Alabama 43-28 en route to victory. Yaxel Lendeborg was the catalyst with 23 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and a pair of steals.
Trey McKenney and Elliot Cadeau scored 17 points apiece, with Cadeau dishing out seven assists and pulling down five boards. Roddy Gayle added 16 points on 3-of-4 makes from downtown. The Wolverines hit 13-of-27 treys (48%), while the Tide made just 14-of-47 attempts (30%) from beyond the arc.
Dusty May’s team will now take on sixth-seeded Tennessee, which advanced to its third consecutive Elite Eight by spanking Iowa St. 76-62 as a 3.5-point underdog.
As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had Michigan listed as a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 146.5. The Volunteers were +265 on the money line.
By Sunday afternoon, most books had the Wolverines as eight or 8.5-point favorites with a total of 146 or 146.5. The Vols were in the +300 to +325 range to win outright.
These schools will be meeting in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 2011. Michigan has won all three of those prior contests, going 2-0-1 ATS, including a 76-68 win as a six-point underdog in the Round of 32 four years ago.
In the win over the Cyclones, Tennessee (25-11 SU, 17-19 ATS) freshman forward Nate Ament scored 18 points to go with four rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots and one steal despite being limited to 25 minutes due to foul trouble. Ja’Kobi Gillespie added 16 points for the Vols, who have now seen the ‘under’ cash at an 11-3 clip in their last 14 games.
UT’s Felix Okpara was a force in the paint vs. Iowa St., producing 12 points, 10 rebounds, three blocked shots and one steal. He made 5-of-6 FGAs and both of his free throws. Jaylen Carey was fantastic in 21 workmanlike minutes off the bench, contributing 11 points, 10 boards, one steal and four assists without a turnover.
The Vols, who are now 4-2 both SU and ATS in six games as underdogs this season, dominated the Cyclones on the glass by a 42-18 margin.
May is coaching in his second Elite Eight game. During his tenure at FAU, he went 1-0 in the Elite Eight, leading the Owls to a win over Kansas St. in the 2023 East Region finals at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
PREDICTION: Rick Barnes is 1-4 SU in five career games in the Elite Eight, but he keeps knocking on that damn door. Here he is once again, and this might be the best coaching job of the 71-year-old’s storied career. He’s somehow only made it to one Final Four, and the Vols have never tasted a Final Four appearance. Does the breakthrough finally come today for Big Orange Nation? I hope so, but I doubt it. It’s going to take spectacular performances from Ament and Gillespie. Whatever the case, the Vols don’t have to win for us to cash a ticket. Let’s risk 1.1 units to win one unit on Tennessee +8.5.
Tennessee and Michigan will collide Sunday at 2:15 p.m. Eastern, while Duke and UConn will tip at 5:05 p.m. Eastern.
As of early Sunday afternoon, FanDuel’s updated odds to win the national title had Arizona as the +170 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belonged to Michigan (+280), Duke (+340) Illinois (+550), UConn (15/1) and Tennessee (35/1).