Celtics are -6.5 vs Dallas in Game 1 of NBA Finals

Celtics are -6.5 vs Dallas in Game 1 of NBA Finals

Dallas (62-37 straight up, 59-40 against the spread) destroyed Minnesota 124-103 in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals last night to advance to the 2024 NBA Finals. The Mavericks won outright as five-point road underdogs, cashing +165 money-line tickets.

Jason Kidd’s team jumped out to a 35-19 lead at the end of the first quarter and enjoyed a 69-40 advantage at halftime. The Timberwolves never mounted any sort of threat in the second half, trailing by as many as 36 points.

Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic scored 36 points apiece, with Donic grabbing 10 rebounds to go with five assists and a pair of steals. Irving had four boards and five assists without a turnover.

P.J. Washington added 12 points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals, while Daniel Gafford contributed 11 points and nine boards. After missing a Game 4 home loss with an injury, rookie Dereck Lively II returned to produce nine points, eight rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots.

Lively made all 16 of his field-goal attempts in the series. In the last six Mavs’ games he’s played in, Lively has hit 24-of-26 FGAs.

In the losing effort, Anthony Edwards had 28 points, nine rebounds and six assists compared to one turnover. Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 28 points and 12 boards.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Boston (76-20 SU, 48-43-5 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Dallas for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on June 6. The total was 214.5 points, while the Mavs were +200 on the money line.

For first-half wagers, the Celtics were 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 110.5.

Boston won both head-to-head meetings against Dallas during the regular season and covered the number. On Jan. 22, the Celtics captured a 119-110 win as 2.5-point road favorites, with the 229 combined points dipping ‘under’ the 240.5-point total.

Jayson Tatum led the way with 39 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, two blocked shots and five assists without a turnover. He drained 11-of-21 FGAs and 15-of-19 free throws. Jaylen Brown added 34 points, four rebounds, two blocks and three assists compared to zero turnovers.

Jrue Holiday had 17 points, seven boards, one block and six assists with just one turnover, and Al Horford was also in double figures with 11 points, six rebounds, three assists and one steal.

Boston center Kristaps Porzingis did not play.

Doncic posted a triple-double in the home defeat. He had 33 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists, two steals and only three turnovers, but he made merely 12-of-30 FGAs and 2-of-8 launches from 3-point land. Irving finished with 23 points, six rebounds, three assists and two steals, while Tim Hardaway Jr. contributed 20 points on 8-of-13 FGAs.

In the rematch on March 1, Boston blasted the Mavs 138-110 as an 8.5-point home favorite. The 248 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 237-point tally. The Celtics led by seven at the break and 12 going into the fourth quarter before pulling away with a 36-20 advantage in the final stanza.

Tatum produced 32 points, eight rebounds and three assists on 10-of-19 FGAs and 5-of-9 makes from downtown. Brown added 25 points, seven boards and five assists, while Porzingis contributed 24 points and six rebounds. Horford finished with 12 points, eight rebounds, three assists and two blocks.

Doncic had another triple-double, going for a game-high 37 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists compared to just two turnovers. Irving and Washington had 19 and 17 points, respectively.

For the series price, the Westgate SuperBook opened the Celtics as -210 ‘chalk,’ leaving the Mavs as +180 underdogs.

For the series spread, FanDuel has Boston at -1.5 games at a -106 price, leaving Dallas at +1.5 (-114).

FanDuel has Tatum as the -120 favorite to win NBA Finals MVP honors. Doncic has the second-shortest odds at +210, followed by Brown (+600), Irving (20/1), Derrick White (35/1), Porzingis (50/1), Holiday (55/1) and Horford (240/1).

Porzingis has been out since suffering a calf injury on April 29 in a Game 4 win at Miami in the first round of the playoffs. His status for the series opener is still to be determined, but there’s a lot of optimism that he’ll be ready to go.

In four postseason games, Porzingis averaged 12.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocked shots and 1.3 steals per game. During 57 regular-season games, he averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.9 BPG.

Game 1 PREDICTION: I like the Mavs +6 for one unit. They’re 6-1 both SU and ATS in seven games as underdogs in the playoffs. Dallas has also thrived in its postseason road assignments, compiling a 7-2 record both SU and ATS.

Let’s also go with one-half unit on ‘over’ 214.5 points. The ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run for both teams. The Celtics have had combined scores of 225, 236 and 261 points in three of their last four games. The Mavs have had combined scores of 227, 223 and 217 points in three of their last four contests.

As previously noted, the two combined scores during the regular season were 248 and 229 points.