The NBA Draft is here.
We can lock in the first three picks as Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and R.J. Barrett, but plenty of uncertainty remains.
Here are some spots I think we can profit on prior to Thursday night’s draft (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).
Number of freshmen drafted as lottery picks: over 5.5 (-225)
This is one of my favorite bets in the draft. The odds reflect my confidence, and are rapidly moving.
We’ve established that Williamson and Barrett will be top-three picks, so we need four more freshmen in the next seven picks.
Vanderbilt PG Darius Garland is a heavy favorite to be selected fourth. North Carolina PG Coby White and Duke F Cam Reddish should also get selected in the first eight picks.
This bet likely comes down to Washington at No. 9 and Atlanta at No. 10 (a pick rumored to potentially be on the move).
Texas C Jaxson Hayes and North Carolina F Nassir Little have a chance to go in the top 10, and I think one of them will land at No. 10 overall.
Fourth overall pick: Vanderbilt PG Darius Garland (-121)
With the top three locked in, NBA teams are falling in love with the mystery that Garland presents.
He only played five game for Vanderbilt in college, but his game is catered to the NBA.
He’s a combo guard with good size, and his handle and shooting ability are elite.
Maybe the New Orleans Pelicans (at No. 4) try to add more of a sure thing after Williamson like Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter or Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver, but Garland is the highest-upside prospect. He’d have no issues fitting next to Lonzo Ball, and would provide some much needed shooting to New Orleans’ new young core.
If the Pelicans want to move this pick, it’s likely because a team wants to move up to select Garland.
To get drafted: UCF C Tacko Fall (Yes -167)
Do we really think nobody is going to take a chance on a 7-foot-5 1/4, 290-pound prospect in the second-round?
Fall averaged a modest 11.1 points, 7.6 boards and 2.6 blocks in just under 25 minutes per game, while shooting 75 percent from the field.
His free-throw shooting was atrocious, he often got into foul trouble and like all players his size, he has trouble running up and down the court for long stretches.
He may be too awkward to have star potential, but Fall could be a Boban Marjanovic type role player on defense, which has proven valuable at times.
He’s an NBA player, and it’s tough to imagine every team passing him up on a second-round deal.
PLAYER DRAFT POSITION
Texas Tech G Jarrett Culver — over 4.5 (-152)
Garland to be selected No. 4 overall is one of my favorite plays of the draft. We also feel confident about the top three, so we’ve run out of picks for Culver to go in the top 4.
Odds on this should be on the move leading up to the draft. Culver will land somewhere in the 5 to 8 range, but it’s looking unlikely it’ll be at No. 4, regardless of who owns the pick.
Indiana G Romeo Langford — under 16.5 (-148)
Langford was an elite prospect entering his freshman season at Indiana, and mock drafts projected him as a top-5 pick at different points in the season.
He’s an NBA-level scorer, and even if he’s not going to be a star, he’ll provide value.
Langford could slip into back end of the lottery, and I have a tough time seeing him slip past the Pistons at No. 15. Given the rest of the prospects in this area of the draft board, Langford’s scoring provide the most upside. Someone will value that in the 11-16 range.
North Carolina G Coby White — under 6.5 (+100)
The Phoenix Suns are obsessed with getting a point guard to play alongside Devin Booker. They’ve been trying to put together a trade for a couple of years.
This draft is their chance. Ja Morant is locked in at No. 2 to the Grizzlies, and Garland likely will go No. 4 or 5.
Unless Phoenix trades up for Garland, who may not be an ideal fit next to Booker, White will be the top point guard on the board when the Suns are on the clock. I expect them to pounce.
Virginia F De’Andre Hunter — over 5.5 (-137)
I like Hunter as a prospect. He reminds me a lot of Rudy Gay at UConn with his length and smooth stroke.
Hunter has one of the highest floors in the draft, and is going to be a well-rounded player at the next level. The problem is that Hunter doesn’t have a high ceiling.
Hunter could be a solid pick at No. 4 or 5 overall, but teams are likely going to shoot for higher potential with those picks.
No. 7 to the Chicago Bulls or No. 8 to the Atlanta Hawks makes the most sense.
Oregon C Bol Bol — over 17.5 (-110)
Bol is as tantalizing a prospect as we’ve seen in a few years.
The 7-foot-2 freshman posted averages of 21 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks during his nine games at Oregon before getting injured. He shot 56 percent from the field and 52 percent from downtown, which has scouts drooling.
But Bol seemingly is sliding in this draft. Questions surrounding his health could lead to him slipping into the 20s. (If it were me drafting, Bol would be one of the first players I’d consider outside of the top 5.)
You’ll have a tough time finding any mock that has Bol going higher than No. 18, so I’ll roll with all the projections here. Bol will land in the 18 to 25 range.
Purdue G Carsen Edwards — over 28.5 (-110)
Edwards had an impressive March Madness, which can always help a player’s stock. But let’s not forget what he is.
Edwards is an undersized, high-usage guard with one main skill, and that’s shooting. That worked fine at Purdue. In the NBA he’s a backup at best.
I don’t think a team, particularly an elite team picking at the end of the first-round, will want to spend a first-rounder on him. Edwards should go to a poor team at the top of the second-round.
Gonzaga F Brandon Clarke — over 11.5 (-152)
I love Clarke as a prospect, but he entered the NBA draft as a junior and played lesser competition in the West Coast Conference.
His best-case scenario is No. 11 overall to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but we’ve also seen him outside of the lottery in the majority of mocks. He falls to the mid-20s in some of them.
There’s one team that can hurt us, but he has the potential to go 15 picks later. There’s no way I’m passing up on a number this good.
Whatever team lands Clarke should be thrilled, but I don’t see it happening in the top 11.