Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Line: Los Angeles -6
Where: SoFi Stadium
When: Monday, 10/26, at 8:15 p.m. ET
Two of the top defenses in the NFL will square off in primetime on Monday night when Los
Angeles hosts Chicago.
The Rams are currently No. 4 in the league in yards allowed, giving up 318.5 per game. Chicago
is not far behind, coming in at No. 7 with 337.2 YPG allowed.
Los Angeles will be looking to bounce back from a loss to San Francisco. The opening line
priced the home team as a one-touchdown favorite, but it has dropped by one point during the
week. The total has taken some action on the ‘under,’ dipping from the opener of 47 down to 45.
Chicago leads Green Bay by a half-game in the NFC North through six weeks, although all five
of its wins have come by a touchdown or less. The lone blemish came in a 19-11 loss at home
against Indianapolis in Week 4.
The Rams are 4-2 and are coming off their worst game of the season—a 24-16 road loss against
a banged up San Francisco team. Their four wins have all come against the NFC East, so it’s
difficult to know exactly how good they are.
Quarterback Jared Goff is going to need to play much better this week. He is facing a Chicago
pass defense that is No. 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (224.2). Goff completed just
19 of 38 pass attempts for 198 yards against San Francisco last week.
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have been the top targets in the passing game. Kupp has 31
receptions for 374 yards and two touchdowns, while Woods has added 27 catches for 329 yards
and three scores. Darrell Henderson Jr. has been good at the running back position, averaging 4.8
YPC on 72 attempts.
Chicago has been very pedestrian on offense throughout the season. The Bears are No. 28 in the
NFL in rushing yards, only averaging 90.0 yards per game.
David Montgomery leads the team with 82 carries for 305 yards and one touchdown, averaging
just 3.7 yards per touch. Nick Foles took over as starting quarterback in the third game of the
year after Mitchell Trubisky struggled out of the gates.
Foles has completed just 62.5 percent of his passes for 878 yards and a 6-to-4 touchdown-to-
interception ratio. Allen Robinson has certainly been the bright spot offensively, catching 40
passes for 474 yards and two touchdowns. He is fourth in the NFL in total receptions and is tenth
in receiving yards.
Chicago leans heavily on a defense that is allowing 337.2 yards per game, although it has only
faced one top 10 offense this season (Atlanta). The Bears have gone ‘under’ in four of their last
five games, while the Rams have gone ‘under’ in four of their six contests.
This series has been leaning toward Chicago of late, as it has won six of the last eight meetings.
The Bears have covered in seven of the last 10 games in the series, but they are 6-12 ATS in
their last 18 games overall.
The Pick: Under 45
These teams have played to the ‘under’ in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings and I do
not expect that to change on Monday night. Despite the NFL heavily favoring high-scoring
games this season, both of these teams have been cashing tickets on the other side. Los Angeles
really struggled against San Francisco’s defense last week and should have similar issues against
this Chicago defense. Foles has not been great in his role as the starter and the Rams boast the
fourth-best pass defense in the NFL. Everything seems to be pointing to a low-scoring game,
which is why this total has already dipped several points in the market.