MNF Betting Preview and Prediction: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants

New York TE Kaden Smith had a huge December as a rookie, and its pedestrian offense would be wise to get him more involved moving forward.

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Tampa Bay -12.5
Total: 45.5
Where: MetLife Stadium
When: Monday, 11/2, at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Tampa Bay has quickly become one of the best teams in the NFL.

Veteran quarterback Tom Brady is finding his stride with the Buccaneers, who have now won
five of their last six games. They are coming off a 45-20 dismantling of Las Vegas on the road
last week and are now installed as 12.5-point favorites tonight at New York.

The Giants opened as 9.5-point underdogs but that number was quickly been bet up. Monday’s
total opened at 47.5 and has been bet down to 45.5, which is an uncorrelated line move between
the side and total.

Brady is averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game over his last five starts. He has thrown 15
touchdowns and just one interception, as the offensive line continues to provide him with time in
the pocket. It’s tough to see that aspect changing this week, as New York has one of the worst
pass rushes in the NFL.

Wide receiver Chris Godwin has already missed three games this season and will be out again on
Monday night. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is starting to become a bigger factor on offense, but
he was a limited participant at Thursday’s practice. Since then, though, he’s been upgraded to
‘probable.’

Mike Evans was only targeted twice in last week’s game, but he is the second-leading receiver
on the team. Scotty Miller leads the Buccaneers with 22 receptions for 365 yards and two
touchdowns. Running back Ronald Jones II has 110 carries for 506 yards and four scores.

Tampa Bay signed Antonio Brown to a one-year deal, but he will not play until next week
against New Orleans. The Buccaneers’ defense is the unit that really stands out—they are No. 1
in the NFL, allowing 291.3 yards per game.

They will be facing a struggling Giants’ offense in this game. New York is the second-worst
statistical offense in the league, only racking up 282.4 yards per contest. Quarterback Daniel
Jones is only passing for 201.4 yards per game.

He has thrown five touchdowns with seven interceptions and four fumbles. New York is also
without star running back Saquon Barkley. Jones leads the team in rushing, carrying the ball 31
times for 296 yards.

Darius Slayton has been the best wide receiver, catching 27 passes for 429 yards and three
touchdowns. Tight end Evan Engram has added 26 receptions for 223 yards.

New York is 4-0 ATS on the road, but is 0-3 ATS at home this season. Tampa Bay has gone 4-2
ATS in its last six games, but it is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games against New York.

These teams have been trending in opposite directions as far as the total is concerned. Tampa
Bay has gone ‘over’ in 15 of its last 20 games, while the Giants have seen the ‘under’ cash in
five of their last seven contests.

The Pick: Tampa Bay -12.5

This number has spiked late in the week, but it has yet to reach the next key number (13). Tampa
Bay should have no problem scoring the ball in this game, as Brady will be able to sit in the
pocket and pick apart the secondary. New York’s offense is not trustworthy and is going to have
its hands full against one of the best defenses in the NFL. These teams are heading down
different paths right now and Monday night could be a bloodbath. A backdoor cover is the best
chance for the Giants in this one, as they have only covered once in their last nine home games.

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