Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier welcomed Max Holloway to the UFC back in 2012. In 2025, Holloway will be Poirier’s last opponent when he makes his final Octagon appearance in the UFC 318 main event at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans on July 19.

In this five-round trilogy bout between two of the most beloved fighters in the promotion’s history, Holloway’s symbolic ‘BMF’ belt will be on the line.

DraftKings opened Holloway (26-8 MMA, 22-8 UFC) as a -130 favorite this past Friday (4/25), but Poirier became the -115 ‘chalk’ before the day was over. As of Sunday night, Poirier was still at -115 with Holloway as the -105 underdog.

The 36-year-old Poirier (30-9 MMA, 22-8 UFC) has already beaten Holloway twice. The Lafayette, LA., product defeated ‘Blessed’ via first-round submission (triangle armbar) in a featherweight scrap at UFC 143.

When lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov was issued a nine-month suspension after the melee that broke out following his UFC 229 win over Conor McGregor, the promotion booked Poirier and Holloway to rematch for the interim 155-pound strap in the UFC 236 headliner at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.

Poirier snapped Holloway’s 13-fight winning streak by capturing a unanimous-decision win (49-46, 49-46, 49-46) as a -220 ‘chalk.’ Poirier was unable to become the undisputed lightweight champ, though, as he lost to Nurmagomedov via third-round submission at UFC 242.

After the second loss to Poirier, Holloway went back down to 145 pounds and defended his featherweight belt with a UD win over Frankie Edgar at UFC 240. However, the Hawaiian lost his next title defense vs. Alexander Volkanovski, and then lost to Volk again in a rematch.

After ripping off back-to-back wins over Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez, he lost to Volk again at UFC 276 via UD. From there, Holloway built himself up again with three consecutive wins, including a fifth-round, buzzer-beating KO win over Justin Gaethje to win the BMF belt at UFC 300.

The win over Gaethje – in a lightweight contest like this third bout against Poirier, we should add – earned Holloway another crack at featherweight gold, but he lost to Ilia Topuria by third-round KO at UFC 308.

After the loss to Nurmagomedov, Poirier went on a three-fight winning streak, including back-to-back KO wins over McGregor, to earn another shot at the lightweight belt against Charles Oliveira at UFC 269.

Poirier dominated the first 7-8 minutes of the bout before Oliveira flipped the momentum by getting the fight to the ground. Oliveira ended up submitting Poirier with a rear-naked choke 62 seconds into the third round.

Poirier went 2-1 in his next three scraps, losing to Gaethje between wins over Michael Chandler (third-round submission) and Benoit Saint Denis (second-round KO). The thrilling KO win over Saint Denis earned Poirier one last title shot against Islam Makhachev at UFC 302 last June.

As Poirier and Makhachev went to the fifth and final round, Poirier had seized momentum thanks to a flurry late in the fourth frame. Unbeknownst at the time, two judges had Makhachev ahead 39-37 while a third had the bout at 38-38.

The scorecards wouldn’t end up mattering though, as Makhachev locked in a brabo choke to submit Poirier at the 2:42 mark.

Before and after the loss, Poirier conceded that he didn’t have enough career left to build himself back up for another title shot. But he didn’t want to go out on a losing note, either, so fans have been waiting for months to see who he’d face in his retirement fight back in his home state.

Now we know.

It’ll be the 33-year-old Holloway. Both legends will eventually be inducted in the UFC Hall of Fame regardless of who gets his hand raised in July.

PREDICTION: Is every fight different? Yes. Can Holloway beat Poirier despite losing to him twice already? No doubt about it. With that said, I’m disappointed with the matchmaking here. I certainly understand why Holloway wants this matchup. On the flip side, what does Dustin prove with a third win over Max?

Anyway, who cares if I like the matchup? Especially when I’m confident in a wager, right? Holloway demonstrated that he’s better equipped to fight at 155 at this stage of his career in his win over Gaethje, and the oddsmakers clearly took notice. He’s also the younger man by three years.

But even though Poirier started his UFC tenure at featherweight, he’s always been a large 155er. And his size and power were the difference at UFC 236 back in 2019.

Sure, that was six years ago and both men are different fighters now. But despite all the rounds and all the wars, Poirier hasn’t lost a step. And here’s another factoid: In Dustin’s eight career fights when he’s coming off a loss, he’s a perfect 8-0.

I’m on Poirier at a -115 price, risking 2.3 units to win two units.