Published on Friday, 8/11/23.
Updated on Tuesday, 8/15/23.
Geoff Neal pulled out of his UFC 292 welterweight scrap vs. Ian Garry on Wednesday due to undisclosed health reasons. Neil Magny has agreed to replace Neal and face ‘The Future’ on just nine days of notice.
The 36-year-old Magny (28-10 MMA, 21-9UFC) is off a split-decision win over Phillip Rowe at UFC Jacksonville on June 24. His 21 career victories are the most in UFC welterweight division history. Magny is tied for the sixth-most career wins in the promotion’s history.
Garry (12-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC), a 25-year-old from Ireland, is off a first-round TKO win (head kick and punches) over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Charlotte on May 13. Three of his UFC wins have come via KO and two were unanimous-decision victories.
Garry owns seven career wins by KO and one via submission. Both fighters are 6-foot-3, but Magny’s 80-inch reach gives him a 5.5-inch advantage.
Magny owns seven career wins via KO and four by submission. He’s been KO’d twice and submitted six times. When his bouts have gone to the judges’ scorecards, Magny has prevailed 17 of 19 times.
He owns notable career scalps over the likes of Rodriguez, Max Griffin, Neal, Robbie Lawler, Li Jingliang, Carlos Condit, Kelvin Gastelum, Hector Lombard, Erick Silva and Tim Means.
On Friday (8/11/23), DraftKings had Garry installed as a -298 favorite, with Magny at +240 on the comeback. As of Tuesday, most shops had Garry up into the -400 (BetMGM) to -455 range (DraftKings), with Magny’s best underdog odds (+350) at DraftKings.
There still aren’t any props listed for this 170-pound scrap, but I’ll be interested in Garry to win by KO if that’s at a -150 price or cheaper. I thought that might be possible on Friday when his straight odds were at -298, but I’m not sure it’ll be cheaper than -200 with his odds soaring in recent days. Whatever the case, I think Garry should be a part of any multi-fight parlays you might have working for this card.
Neal (15-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) was looking to bounce back from a third-round submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a thrilling war that garnered Fight of the Night honors at UFC 285. He had won his two previous fights over Vicente Luque (third-round KO) and Santiago Poonzinibbio (split decision) prior to the loss vs. Rakhmonov.
Aljamain Sterling will be seeking his fourth consecutive successful defense of his bantamweight belt when he takes on ‘Sugar’ Sean O’Malley in next Saturday’s UFC 292 headliner at TD Garden in Boston. Sterling is a favorite in the -250 to -290 range, while O’Malley is a +220 underdog at BetRivers.
In the co-main event, Zhang Weili will defend her women’s strawweight title as a -340 ‘chalk’ against Amanda Lemos, who is a +265 underdog at FanDuel and Caesars.